IDC’s June 8, 2026 outlook forecasts worldwide PC shipments will fall 11.3% this year while average selling prices rise 18.3%. The downgrade is not simply a tariff story: IDC identifies a persistent memory shortage as the main pressure, with higher component costs, supply-chain disruption and tariff uncertainty adding to the strain. If you need a laptop computer soon, waiting is not automatically the cheaper choice—but IDC’s forecast is not a promise that every model or retailer will raise prices by the same amount.
What IDC changed—and what the numbers measure
IDC’s June 8, 2026 forecast is for worldwide PC shipments to decline 11.3% for full-year 2026. It also forecasts PC average selling prices (ASPs) to rise 18.3% in 2026, and says prices are unlikely to return to 2025 levels even after memory capacity expands. These are market-wide forecasts, not a prediction for the price or availability of a specific laptop computer.
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IDC’s first-quarter figures help explain why a strong quarter does not contradict a weaker full-year outlook. IDC reported 103.3 million combined PC-and-tablet shipments in Q1 2026, up 2.8% year over year. Within that total, PC shipments alone were 65.6 million, up 3%. IDC attributed some of the strength to buyers and businesses pulling purchases forward ahead of anticipated price increases and limited availability. That can lift current shipments while leaving fewer purchases for later quarters.
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Why the forecast is falling—and why tariffs are only part of it
IDC names a persistent memory shortage as the primary driver of its 2026 downgrade. Higher costs for DRAM, NAND and storage raise manufacturers’ bills of materials. Those costs can put pressure on the price of new systems or on the memory and storage configuration offered at a given price.
Tariff uncertainty adds risk, but it should not be confused with the main cause IDC identifies. Changes in duties or exemptions can prompt companies to ship or buy earlier, while supply-chain disruption and freight costs can add further pressure to end prices. The actual effect on a particular buyer depends on the model, seller, inventory and applicable trade conditions; IDC’s market forecast does not quantify a tariff surcharge for each PC.
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IDC’s separate 2026 commentary cites 17% PC ASP growth, compared with 18.3% in its June 8 outlook. These are forecasts published at different times and can reflect different assumptions or updates; they are not two figures to add together. For the full-year outlook discussed here, IDC’s June 8 forecast is 18.3%. An earlier 2025 tariff-related forecast reported by PCWorld and HotHardware projected 273 million worldwide PC shipments for 2025. That earlier forecast is historical context, not the baseline for IDC’s 2026 outlook.
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The useful question is not whether prices will rise uniformly, but whether the cost and capability of a suitable system make sense for your needs now. IDC’s forecast informs the market risk; it cannot determine the best choice for your household or business.
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| Choice | When it fits | Main trade-off to check |
|---|---|---|
| Buy now | You need a working PC soon, or have found a configuration that meets your needs at a price you can afford. | You may pay more than earlier buyers did, and a rushed purchase can leave you with too little memory, storage or performance. |
| Wait | Your current computer remains adequate and you can defer the expense. | IDC expects market-wide price and availability pressure; waiting does not guarantee a discount or a better configuration. |
| Upgrade | The existing computer still handles your workload and has a compatible, replaceable RAM or storage component. | Some systems are not upgradeable, and an upgrade cannot fix an inadequate processor, thermal limits or unsupported operating system. |
Before committing, compare the total price of a ready-to-use machine—not just its headline price—with the configuration you actually need. Check memory and storage capacity, whether either can be upgraded, availability, warranty and support, and how long you expect to keep the computer. For an upgrade, verify the exact model’s compatibility and warranty terms before buying a RAM upgrade or storage drive.
How to make the decision for your workload
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If the current computer reliably handles browsing, documents, video calls and the applications you use, deferring a purchase or making a compatible upgrade may be reasonable. If it is already disrupting work or study, the cost of waiting includes lost time and reliability—not only a possible change in the sale price.
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Start with the software or games you actually run and their system requirements. Memory and storage matter, but they cannot compensate for a processor or graphics capability that does not meet the workload. Compare complete systems at the same configuration, and consider whether a lower-priced model has compromises that would make you replace it sooner.
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Earlier IDC tariff-related coverage expected a more mature AI-PC ecosystem later in 2025 and said most new PCs could be GenAI-capable by 2026. That was a forecast, not a guarantee that every 2026 model includes the same capabilities or that every buyer’s applications will benefit. Buy for a specific supported workload or feature you expect to use, rather than paying a premium solely for the AI-PC label.
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What the forecast can—and cannot—tell a buyer
IDC’s figures describe expected market shipments and average selling prices. They do not establish the live price of a particular laptop computer, which retailer has stock, whether an advertised discount is good value, or whether a particular RAM module is compatible. No single forecast determines whether waiting will save an individual buyer money: the choice turns on current need, the full configuration and price available, and the risk of reduced availability.
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