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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsICE estimated that U.S. home prices were 1.41% higher year over year in September 2026, down from 1.44% in August. The 1.4% headline refers to ICE’s mid-month September Home Price Index reading—not a final figure for the full month—and seasonally adjusted prices were nearly flat from August, rising 0.01%.
What ICE’s 1.4% home-price figure measures
The October 2026 Mortgage Monitor reports a 1.41% increase in ICE’s Home Price Index compared with the same time a year earlier. ICE describes the input as September mid-month data, so it is an early-month estimate rather than a final full-month September result. The annual rate was 1.44% in August; ICE says the slowdown marked the first time in seven months that annual growth had eased. ICE’s October 5, 2026 release links to the full report.
The annual change answers how the index compares with a year earlier. It does not mean every home gained 1.4% in value, nor does it describe what happened in every city or property type.
Prices were nearly flat month to month
On a seasonally adjusted basis, ICE’s index rose 0.01% from August to early September. The corresponding monthly increases for July and August were each 0.02%. These small monthly changes help explain why the annual rate was subdued, but the measures answer different questions: one compares with a year earlier, while the other compares with the prior month and adjusts for seasonal patterns.
Property type and location changed the picture
Single-family homes and condos
ICE’s September mid-month data showed single-family prices up 1.7% year over year, while condo prices were down 0.9%. A national average therefore does not describe all segments equally.
Metro markets
Nearly 80% of major markets recorded annual price increases. Scranton, Pennsylvania, led the markets cited by ICE at 7.5%, followed by Rochester, New York, at 7.2%, and Syracuse, New York, at 6.6%. The 23 fastest-appreciating markets were in the Midwest and Northeast.
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Seattle had the largest annual decline, at 3.1% below its year-earlier level, and prices there were 5.5% below their peak. ICE also identified softer markets in the South and West. Among examples at least 5% below recent peaks were Austin (23.2% below), Cape Coral (16.5%), North Port (13.5%), San Antonio (8.6%), Phoenix (7.8%), Denver (7.3%), and San Francisco (6.8%). These are metro-level index comparisons; individual homes can differ substantially within each market.
Inventory improved but remained below its pre-pandemic benchmark
ICE counted 1.14 million active listings nationally in August 2026, the highest level in nearly seven years but still 12% below pre-pandemic levels. This is an August inventory observation, not a September home-price reading.
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Local supply conditions varied. ICE compared seasonally adjusted listings in the 100 largest markets with each market’s 2017–2019 average: one-third were in surplus, 46% had deficits greater than 10 percentage points, and 21% were within 10 points of their benchmark. A national listing total can therefore conceal very different conditions for buyers and sellers across markets.
What the report’s affordability example means
ICE’s standardized illustration, using a prevailing 7.20% rate as of September 24, assumes a median-priced home, 20% down, and a 30-year mortgage. Under those assumptions, monthly principal and interest would be $2,383—31.7% of median household income. ICE said the ratio was 27.6% at January’s low and 28.4% in March.
This is an illustrative national measure, not a personalized payment quote: it does not establish the taxes, insurance, fees, mortgage terms, or home price applicable to a particular buyer. It also uses a different rate measure and date from ICE’s 30-year fixed-rate lock index, which was 7.31% on September 30, 63 basis points above the end of August.
Why adjustable-rate mortgages appear in the report
ICE said ARMs accounted for more than 11% of rate locks, the largest share in nearly four years. Separately, 3.1 million active first-lien ARM loans made up 5.6% of active mortgages. Only about one-third of active ARMs had reached their first reset, and more than 90% of ARMs originated since 2022 remained in their initial fixed-rate period. These figures describe market activity and exposure; they are not a recommendation to choose an ARM.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →ICE modeled a median $14 monthly payment increase for post-reset ARMs assuming a full 25-basis-point pass-through, and a $53 median increase for post-reset loans originated since 2022. The report counted around 180,000 ARMs scheduled for a first reset in 2027. ICE estimated a $645 median initial monthly increase for those affected borrowers; the subset of 2020 seven-year ARMs faced a modeled median initial increase of a little over $1,000, or 36%.
These are ICE model estimates, not predictions for an individual loan. The outcome depends on factors including the loan balance, index, contractual caps, and reset timing. ICE’s figures distinguish loans that have already reset from those still in an initial fixed period, so the estimates should not be applied across the entire mortgage pool.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to use this report as a homebuyer or homeowner
- For a national trend: treat 1.41% as a modest annual increase in ICE’s early-September index, with almost no seasonally adjusted movement from the prior month.
- For a local decision: check the specific metro and property type. The national rate does not determine a home’s likely sale price or appreciation.
- For affordability: use ICE’s payment example as a benchmark only, then calculate costs using your own price, down payment, rate, taxes, insurance, and loan terms.
- For ARM borrowers: consult the actual note and reset notice for the index, margin, caps, and dates that govern a payment change; national median estimates cannot substitute for those terms.
The Mortgage Monitor combines ICE’s Home Price Index with loan-level McDash and public property-records data. Its sections do not all describe the same month: the cited HPI figures are September mid-month data, while the inventory figure is from August and other mortgage-performance analysis also uses August observations. ICE says its data are provided “as is” and may change at short notice.
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