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How Would Alaska LNG Reach South Korea, and What Would It Cost?

The proposed route runs from Prudhoe Bay by pipeline to an LNG terminal near Nikiski, then by tanker to South Korea. AGDC’s $38.7 billion estimate dates to 2020 and is not a buyer’s delivered price.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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Alaska LNG would reach South Korea by a proposed two-part route: a pipeline from the North Slope to an export terminal near Nikiski, followed by LNG tanker shipments across the Pacific. The Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) published a $38.7 billion construction estimate in 2020, but that figure is not a current project budget or the price South Korean buyers would pay for gas.

How the proposed Alaska-to-Korea route would work

  1. Process North Slope gas. The project design starts with a gas treatment plant at Prudhoe Bay, where North Slope gas would be prepared for transport.
  2. Move gas south by pipeline. The proposed pipeline is about 807 miles long and 42 inches in diameter. FERC’s 2020 authorization describes capacity of up to 3.9 billion cubic feet of gas per day. The route generally follows the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System and nearby highways toward Livengood, then continues toward Nikiski, including a Cook Inlet crossing. FERC’s authorization summary and final environmental review describe the facilities and route.
  3. Liquefy and load the gas. Near Nikiski on the Kenai Peninsula, the proposed export plant would cool the gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG), which can be carried by ship.
  4. Ship LNG to South Korea. Tankers would carry the LNG from Alaska’s marine terminal to overseas buyers. The cited project records do not specify a Korean port, vessel, sailing distance, or seasonal route.

FERC describes the proposed project as designed to produce up to 20 million metric tons of LNG annually. Those figures are design capacities; they do not mean the pipeline or export plant is built or operating.

What the $38.7 billion estimate covers

On June 25, 2020, AGDC announced a $38.7 billion estimate for project construction. AGDC said this was $5.5 billion, or 12.4%, below the $44.2 billion estimate compiled in 2015 by earlier project sponsors. The 2020 figure followed a 14-month update process that AGDC said incorporated third-party industry expertise. It is a dated construction estimate, not a final current budget. AGDC’s announcement provides the estimate and its comparison.

The construction estimate does not state what a South Korean buyer would pay per unit of LNG. A delivered price would depend on more than building the Alaska facilities, including upstream gas and infrastructure costs, operating and liquefaction costs, shipping arrangements, contract pricing, and South Korean terminal or regasification charges. The cited records do not establish a current delivered price, and the $38.7 billion figure alone cannot be converted into one.

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What the project approvals do—and do not—show

FERC announced a conditional authorization under the Natural Gas Act on May 21, 2020, for AGDC to site, construct, and operate the project. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) export docket records separate export authorizations, including a 2020 final order for non-free-trade-agreement destinations and subsequent rehearing actions through 2023. These approvals do not establish that construction has started, financing has closed, a buyer has committed, or the project has an operating date. The cited official pages do not give a firm in-service date. See FERC’s authorization and the DOE export docket.

DOE’s 2023 supplemental environmental review models a scenario in which LNG is delivered to South Korea and used at a natural-gas combined-cycle power plant. That is an analytical scenario, not evidence of a sales contract or a quoted delivered price. The review’s Volume 2 appendices contain the scenario.

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What a buyer or household-budget comparison still needs

For a meaningful comparison with another gas supply, use the same basis for each option: delivered price and date, contract structure and duration, shipping distance and terms, supply reliability and project readiness, and whether terminal or regasification charges are included. Without comparable current figures, the Alaska construction estimate cannot answer whether Alaska LNG would be cheaper or more expensive for South Korea.

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