U.S. soybean crushing has become more efficient over the long run, and a growing share of the crop has been extracted as oil. Renewable diesel has added a major source of soybean-oil demand and is associated with a recent buildout of crushing capacity. But the long-run data do not prove that renewable diesel caused the historical shift toward oil, or show how much of that shift reflects processors, farmers, or growing conditions.
What soybean crushing does
Soybean crushing is the process of extracting soybean meal and oil from soybeans. The two products are linked: processing more beans to supply oil also produces more meal. That joint output is central to understanding both the industry’s long-run changes and the limits on a crush expansion driven by oil demand.
How has soybean crushing changed over time?
A farmdoc daily analysis published August 25, 2025, used USDA-derived data to examine U.S. crushing across marketing years. It distinguishes two trends: a decline in material not accounted for as oil or meal, and an increase in the share of crushed soybeans recovered as oil. The first points toward greater processing efficiency; the second suggests a change in product composition.
Less material is unaccounted for
The analysis treats “waste” as a residual: material crushed that does not appear in reported oil or meal production. Its estimated trend fell from 2.7% in marketing year 1964/65 to about 1.5% in 2024/25, a 44% reduction. The estimated average decline was 0.02 percentage points per year. Annual values fluctuate, and this residual can include measurement error, so the trend is more informative than any single year’s estimate. Read the farmdoc daily analysis.
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A larger share has been extracted as oil
The same analysis reports that U.S. oil extraction rose from 17.9% in 1964/65 to 19.8% in 2023/24. The standard board-crush calculation assumes 11 pounds of oil from a 60-pound bushel, or 18.3%. That is a useful convention, not a fixed physical limit: at the reported 2023/24 extraction rate, a bushel yielded roughly 10% more oil than the comparison rate from six decades earlier, according to the authors.
Because oil extraction increased more quickly than the waste trend fell, the authors infer that the product mix shifted toward oil as well as becoming more efficient. Those are different conclusions: lower residual waste does not by itself explain why a greater proportion of output is oil.
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International comparisons need context
The farmdoc analysis reports that U.S. and Argentine soybean oil extraction rates are now roughly similar, around 19.5% to 20.0%; Argentina’s rate rose by about 0.08 percentage points per year on average from a lower starting point in the 1970s. Canadian canola extraction rose from 39% to nearly 44% between 1964/65 and 2024/25. These figures provide context, not a like-for-like performance ranking: the crops, environments, and starting periods differ.
How has renewable diesel affected soybean crush?
Renewable diesel created a substantial additional use for fats and oils, including soybean oil. Unlike biodiesel, renewable diesel is a drop-in fuel that does not need to be blended with conventional diesel. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) says biomass-based diesel demand is supported by federal Renewable Fuel Standard targets and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
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ERS data show renewable diesel output rising from 40 million gallons in 2010/11 to 2.3 billion gallons in 2022/23. Over a longer period, soybean oil used for biofuel rose from less than 1% of U.S. soybean oil production in 2001/02 to 46% in 2022/23. These are dated observations, not current-year estimates. The figures and chart are available in USDA ERS’s biofuel chart.
ERS reports that U.S. soybean crush capacity has expanded since 2021, with additional capacity under construction to serve demand for both meal and soybean oil used in biomass-based diesel. It also notes that growing domestic oil use has affected export use. The capacity expansion is consistent with processors responding to stronger demand, but the aggregate time series does not isolate renewable diesel as the cause of the long-run rise in extraction.
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What the recent crush forecast says—and does not say
In a July 1, 2025 outlook, ERS forecast 2025/26 U.S. soybean crush of 2.49 billion bushels, equivalent to 57% of expected U.S. soybean production. That is a forecast, not a final observed result. ERS also reported new plants under construction in North Dakota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio. See the USDA ERS Oil Crops Yearbook and its soybean and oil-crops market outlook for related supply-and-use context.
The distinction between capacity and actual crush matters. A plant under construction adds potential processing capacity; a forecast estimates expected use; neither alone establishes how much will ultimately be crushed. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) publishes facility-based data on crushings and related oil production, consumption, and stocks in its Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks release index.
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Why meal limits an oil-led expansion
Crushing soybeans for oil also produces soybean meal, so the economics depend on whether both products can find buyers. ERS reports that higher crush has increased meal availability and exports. If meal supply grows faster than demand, the industry needs enough export outlets and market share to place the co-product. That makes meal demand part of the constraint on how far oil demand alone can support additional crushing.
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service discussed trade and meal-market considerations in a June 2024 analysis. The broad point is that export demand, relative prices, and the ability to sell surplus meal matter alongside oil demand; the available material does not support a precise trade quotation here. USDA FAS: Soybeans—World Markets and Trade.
What the long-run data can establish
The farmdoc authors note that extraction was above its long-run trend in every marketing year from 2020/21 onward, which they describe as rough evidence of responsiveness. But annual aggregate data cannot establish that renewable diesel caused the increase, quantify its contribution, or identify whether changes arose from processor decisions, farmer choices, or growing conditions. The evidence supports a plausible industry response, not a complete causal account.
For readers tracking the industry, the practical distinction is to follow three measures separately: the waste residual as an efficiency indicator, oil extraction as a product-mix indicator, and crush volume or capacity as a measure of processing scale. The USDA ERS Oil Crops Yearbook compiles historical oilseed, meal, fat, and oil supply, use, stocks, prices, and trade data; its download was updated March 23, 2026.
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