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How to Track Oil Prices and Russian Crude Exports: Reliable Sources and a Practical Method

Use EIA for benchmark prices and structured petroleum data, and the IEA for monthly Russian export context. A practical method for comparing periods, destinations, crude-only figures, and estimates.
From TheFinanceBase Team5 min to read
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For oil benchmarks, start with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); for monthly Russian export flows and destination estimates, consult the International Energy Agency (IEA), then compare like-for-like figures with EIA analysis. Record each figure’s date, unit, scope, and status—especially whether it covers crude alone or crude plus refined products. Those distinctions matter because a benchmark price is not the realized price of Russian crude, and export estimates can be revised or differ by methodology.

Where to track oil prices and Russian exports

Source Best use Coverage and access Important qualification
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Current market context, benchmark spot prices, forecasts, and linked price tables and figures. Monthly report with an interactive data browser. Separate reported observations from forecasts and identify the release date. In its October 6, 2026 release, EIA said Brent spot averaged $114 per barrel in September 2026; this is a dated observation, not a standing forecast.
EIA International Data Structured petroleum series by geography, including production, trade, and prices. Includes annual crude and lease-condensate exports and OECD monthly trade views. Check the selected series’ frequency and scope; not every series is monthly or directly comparable.
EIA petroleum API Machine-readable petroleum imports, exports, movements, stocks, and prices. Suitable for repeatable queries and data workflows. Confirm geography, frequency, unit, and revision status in the current documentation and series metadata.
IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) Monthly international market analysis and Russian export volumes, destinations, and revenues. Covers supply, demand, inventories, prices, refining, and trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries; report access is subscription-based. Figures may be estimates based in part on tanker tracking. Check whether a figure is crude-only or includes products.
IEA Russian exports by destination chart Destination comparisons and an overview of Russian oil export flows. Chart sources include IEA, Argus, and Kpler. Origin attribution for shipments routed through third countries involves granular analysis and estimates; values may differ from customs data and can be updated.
EIA Russia analysis A second perspective on Russian crude and condensate exports. EIA’s August 7, 2025 analysis used Global Trade Tracker, Argus, and Vortexa. EIA marked its first-half 2025 export estimate preliminary. Its scope is crude oil and condensate, not all petroleum products.

How to track prices without confusing benchmarks and export prices

For broad market reference, follow Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as separate benchmark series. Russian export economics require a Russian grade price or a weighted export-price estimate, which reflects different crude qualities, delivery bases, and market conditions. A benchmark is not automatically the price received for a Russian cargo.

The IEA says its spot crude and product price assessments are based on daily Argus prices and converted to U.S. dollars per barrel where appropriate. See the IEA OMR methodology guide. If you calculate a spread, name both price series and state the arithmetic, period, unit, and assessment basis—for example, Russian grade price minus Brent, rather than an undefined “discount.”

How to build a dependable tracking routine

  1. Choose the measure. Use Brent or WTI for benchmark context. For Russian export economics, track a Russian grade or weighted export-price estimate separately from the benchmark.
  2. Capture the metadata. Along with the value, save the source, series name, observation date or covered month, publication date, currency, unit, frequency, geography, and whether it is observed, estimated, preliminary, or forecast.
  3. Keep product categories distinct. Label crude oil, crude and condensate, crude and products, and total oil exports accurately. Keep revenue categories separate too if the source reports crude and products independently.
  4. Compare like with like. Match monthly observations to monthly observations, use consistent units such as barrels per day or million barrels per day, and check that geography and product scope align.
  5. Keep report vintages. If a source revises a month, retain the earlier publication date in your record and identify the newer value’s source and date instead of silently replacing the old figure.
  6. Separate the latest reading from the outlook. In STEO, identify which periods are reported market observations and which are forecasts. Quote forecasts with the report’s release date because new developments can change them.

Where to find Russian crude exports by month and destination

The IEA OMR is the most direct monthly source in this set for international context on Russian exports, including destination and revenue discussion; it is subscription-based. The IEA’s destination chart offers a way to examine flows by destination, while EIA’s Russia analysis is a useful complementary estimate with a different data mix. EIA’s International Data portal and API are practical for structured petroleum series, but verify that the specific series answers the question you have: annual export data, for example, cannot be treated as a monthly destination breakdown.

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Recent figures illustrate why labels matter. In its June 2025 report, the IEA said Russian crude and product exports fell by 230,000 barrels per day month over month to 7.3 million barrels per day in May 2025. That is a combined crude-and-products figure, not crude-only. In its February 2026 OMR, the IEA cited tanker-tracking estimates of Indian imports of Russian crude at 1.1 million barrels per day in January 2026 and an average of 1.7 million barrels per day during 2025. These figures describe India-bound crude, not Russia’s total exports.

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Why Russian export estimates differ

There is not necessarily one definitive monthly series shared by all providers. The IEA destination chart draws on IEA, Argus, and Kpler and says that assigning origin to shipments transiting third countries requires detailed analysis and estimates. EIA’s August 2025 analysis used Global Trade Tracker, Argus, and Vortexa, and it identified first-half 2025 figures as preliminary. Customs records, vessel tracking, source inputs, timing, revisions, origin attribution, and product coverage can therefore produce different numbers.

When values disagree, first check whether both cover the same period and whether each counts crude alone, crude and condensate, or crude plus products. Then compare the data source and method, country-of-origin treatment, and whether one figure is preliminary or has since been revised. Do not average figures with different scopes or definitions: explain the discrepancy and keep each estimate attached to its source.

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A few dated figures for context

  • Brent: EIA reported an average spot price of $114 per barrel for September 2026 in its October 6, 2026 STEO release. It is a historical monthly average as reported in that release, not a forecast or an enduring price level.
  • Russian crude and condensate exports: EIA reported an average of 5.0 million barrels per day for 2020–2024, and 4.8 million barrels per day for 2024. Its estimate for the first half of 2025 was 4.3 million barrels per day, marked preliminary.
  • Russian crude and products exports: The IEA’s June 2025 report put May 2025 at 7.3 million barrels per day, down 230,000 barrels per day from April; the figure includes products.
  • Russian crude imports to India: The IEA’s February 2026 OMR reported a tanker-tracking estimate of 1.1 million barrels per day in January 2026 and a 2025 average of 1.7 million barrels per day.

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