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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →U.S. stocks have often performed better in the 12 months after midterm elections than during the midterm year, but the size of the historical pattern depends on which index, return measure, and dates are used. It is a past association—not proof that elections cause a rally or a dependable signal for when to buy or sell.
Does the stock market usually go up after midterms?
In the historical studies cited here, the S&P 500 was positive more often than not in the year after a midterm election. Fidelity’s August 2026 analysis says the index posted a price gain in the 12 months after midterms 95% of the time since 1938. BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group reported an average 12-month post-midterm S&P 500 price return of 16.6% since the 1950s, calculated as of May 4, 2026.
Those figures describe different summaries of past results: one is the frequency of positive returns, the other an average. Neither says what will happen after the next election. Fidelity also notes that midterm-year returns have varied widely, from a drawdown of about 27% to gains near 40%, so an average does not describe every election cycle.
Why published midterm-return figures differ
There is no single standard “midterm return.” A statistic can change depending on whether it measures the election calendar year or a period beginning on Election Day, whether dividends are included, and how far back the sample goes. The index and comparison group matter too. These published figures should not be treated as interchangeable:
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| Publisher and date | Reported result | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Fidelity Investments, 2024 | 3.4% in Year 2; 14.7% in Year 3 | Average S&P 500 returns in successive November 30-to-November 30 presidential-cycle periods, using data from November 30, 1950, through November 14, 2023. Year 2 is the midterm cycle year; Year 3 is the following year. |
| Fidelity Viewpoints, August 2026 | About 5% in the second presidential-term year; about 14% in the following 12 months; positive price gains after midterms 95% of the time | Fidelity’s historical analysis since 1938, as described in its article. The figures are rounded; the 95% figure refers to price gains in the 12 months after midterms. |
| BlackRock, 2026 | 7.5% versus 12.4%; 14.1% versus 5.7% | Average annual U.S. stock returns in midterm years versus non-midterm years were 7.5% and 12.4%. Separately, average S&P 500 total returns in the six months after midterms since 1970 were 14.1%, compared with 5.7% for non-midterm years. BlackRock says the latter uses returns indexed around election dates and hypothetical dates for non-election comparisons; its article cites Bloomberg data as of August 13, 2026. |
| BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group, 2026 | 16.6% | Average S&P 500 price return in the 12 months after midterms since the 1950s; calculation as of May 4, 2026. |
| Fidelity Investments, 2024 | 8.3% in Year 1; 9.1% in Year 4 | Average S&P 500 returns for the other two November 30-to-November 30 presidential-cycle periods in the same 1950–2023 chart. |
For a meaningful comparison, check the index, return type, start and end dates, sample period, and whether the figure is an average or the share of positive outcomes. A calendar-year midterm result can be weak even if a later six- or 12-month period is positive. Price returns exclude dividends; total returns include reinvested dividends. Fidelity’s November-to-November cycle periods are also not the same window as BlackRock’s six months after Election Day or BNY’s following 12 months.
What might explain the historical pattern?
One proposed explanation is that uncertainty around taxes, regulation, government spending, and other policies can weigh on markets before an election. Once voting ends, some uncertainty may ease. That is a possible interpretation, not proof that election results cause stock gains.
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Fidelity’s Denise Chisholm described the distinction this way: “Markets don’t necessarily respond to voting results. However, they have tended to respond to improvement in economic policy clarity,” says Chisholm. “Things rarely get to ‘clear.’ They just get to ‘less unclear,’ and that is usually enough for investors.”
Chisholm also cautioned that “The overall level of political uncertainty can fuel volatility, yet the market’s core drivers are things like earnings growth and leading indicators of economic growth,” says Denise Chisholm, director of quantitative market strategy at Fidelity. Business investment, economic conditions, interest rates, inflation, and valuations can all outweigh or obscure a political-cycle pattern. Historical averages do not establish that one party, policy platform, or election outcome reliably benefits the market.
How investors should use the data
Use midterm history as context for understanding past market behavior, not as a standalone forecast or trading rule. Fidelity vice president of capital markets strategy Anu Gaggar puts it succinctly: “Vote in the booths, not in your portfolios,” says Anu Gaggar, vice president, capital markets strategy at Fidelity.
For a personal decision, return to the factors that shape an investment plan:
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- Goals and time horizon: Match the portfolio to when the money is needed, rather than to an election calendar.
- Risk tolerance: Consider whether the portfolio’s potential swings are manageable for you.
- Allocation: Review whether the mix of investments still fits your plan; do not assume that political control is a dependable sector-allocation signal.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The cited statistics are historical summaries from their named publishers, not individualized investment advice.
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