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China exposure is not a single percentage. A technology company can depend on China through customer revenue, factories and suppliers, components and logistics, export licenses, or Taiwan-linked production even when its reported China sales are modest. Evaluate each holding across those channels, record the issuer’s definitions and fiscal period, then aggregate the findings using your actual portfolio weights and shared dependencies.
What “China exposure” actually includes
Start by separating four kinds of exposure. Keeping them separate prevents a high China-sales figure from hiding a supply-chain vulnerability, or a low sales figure from creating false comfort.
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| Exposure channel | What to measure | Questions to ask |
|---|---|---|
| Direct commercial | Revenue from customers in China, sales by region, products sold and customer concentration | Is the figure based on customer location, shipment destination, or another definition? Is revenue broad-based or dependent on a few accounts? |
| Operational | Factories, contract manufacturers, suppliers, foundries, assembly and test sites, components, materials, logistics and local subsidiaries | Could a disruption in China or a nearby hub stop production or delay delivery? How quickly and cheaply could the company switch? |
| Regulatory | Export controls, licenses, restricted entities or end uses, tariffs, sanctions and possible countermeasures | Which products, customers or transactions require approval? Could a rule affect sales outside China or the supply chain itself? |
| Regional | Dependencies involving Taiwan and other Asian manufacturing, materials and logistics hubs | Could a change in cross-strait conditions affect sourcing, component costs, sales or transport even if China revenue is small? |
These channels interact. A rule that limits a chip shipment can reduce China revenue, strand inventory, alter factory utilization and make it harder to serve customers elsewhere. Treat each risk disclosure as a possible outcome, not proof that an event has happened or a quantified probability estimate.
Build a company-by-company exposure map
Create one row for every holding and at least these columns: direct China revenue, definition and period, largest-customer share, manufacturing and supplier locations, critical components, regulatory restrictions, Taiwan or regional links, management’s stated mitigations, and your confidence in the evidence. Keep measured facts distinct from qualitative risk statements.
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Record the holding and the evidence date
Use the latest annual report and then check for a newer quarterly report or material filing. Put the fiscal year or quarter and filing date beside every number. A fiscal 2026 figure is not automatically comparable with a calendar-year 2025 figure, and an older annual report may not reflect a newly issued rule.
Read the right filing sections
- Business description: note products, end markets, manufacturing model and sales structure.
- Geographic revenue note: copy the issuer’s wording and identify whether geography means customer location, shipping destination, revenue origin or asset location.
- Customer concentration: record any customer representing a material share of revenue, backlog or accounts receivable.
- Supply-chain disclosures: list factories, contract manufacturers, foundries, key suppliers, components, raw materials and logistics routes.
- Risk factors and management discussion: capture export controls, licenses, tariffs, sanctions, countermeasures, Taiwan references and stated alternatives.
Do not compare geographic percentages until you have confirmed that the underlying definitions and periods match. “Revenue in China,” “customers in China” and “international revenue” can describe different populations.
Measure direct China business without misreading the numbers
Customer geography is not a universal metric
An issuer may attribute a sale to the customer’s headquarters, the ship-to address or another convention. The number may therefore differ from the location where the product is ultimately used. Write the definition next to the percentage in your worksheet instead of treating every regional figure as interchangeable.
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KLA Corporation’s fiscal 2026 Form 10-K reported revenue from products and services to customers in China of 30% in fiscal 2026, compared with 33% in fiscal 2025 and 43% in fiscal 2024. Those are KLA’s company-specific disclosures for the stated fiscal periods, not a semiconductor-equipment benchmark or a forecast.
| Issuer measure | Fiscal 2024 | Fiscal 2025 | Fiscal 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| KLA revenue from products and services to customers in China | 43% | 33% | 30% |
The same filing says current and future Commerce rules could cause future revenue to decline. A falling China-revenue share can result from changed sales, customer mix, restrictions or other factors; it does not, by itself, demonstrate that KLA’s manufacturing or supplier dependence has fallen.
International revenue is not China revenue
Axcelis Technologies, Inc. reported international revenue of 83.7% in 2025, 85.8% in 2024 and 84.1% in 2023. “International” means revenue outside the United States; these figures do not identify the China portion. Presenting them as China exposure would overstate what the filing establishes.
Revenue concentration and customer concentration answer different questions
Axcelis separately reported that one customer represented 11.0% of consolidated revenue in 2025. The cited filing excerpt does not identify that customer or percentage as China-specific. A company can have modest China revenue but still face a sharp earnings effect if one large customer, wherever located, delays orders. Conversely, broad China sales may be less vulnerable to the loss of any single account.
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| Measure | What it tells you | What it does not tell you |
|---|---|---|
| China customer revenue | How much reported sales are attributed to customers in China under the issuer’s definition | Where production, suppliers or end use occur |
| International revenue | How much sales are outside the United States | How much is China-related |
| Largest-customer share | Dependence on one account or account group | That the customer is in China or exposed to China policy |
Map manufacturing, suppliers and logistics
Read beyond the revenue note. Identify the physical and commercial steps required to make and deliver each important product.
Manufacturing and contract production
List company-owned plants, contract manufacturers, foundries, assembly and test facilities, warehouses and repair centers by country. Mark each site as critical, replaceable or unclear. Ask whether the issuer owns tooling or process know-how that cannot be moved quickly, and whether a substitute site has capacity and regulatory approval.
Suppliers, components and inputs
Record single-source or qualified-source components, raw materials, chemicals, packaging, integrated circuits and specialized equipment. A supplier outside China may still depend on Chinese inputs or regional logistics. Note lead times, qualification requirements and whether the company describes safety stock or dual sourcing.
Logistics and local operations
Include ports, freight routes, distribution centers, service teams and Chinese subsidiaries. A sales restriction can leave inventory in transit; a transport disruption can affect customers in other markets. Distinguish a disclosed dependency from an assumption: AMD warns that controls can affect manufacturing, testing, warehousing and the ability to meet demand abroad, while Cisco discusses possible restrictions affecting its products, suppliers, integrated circuits and component inputs. These are issuer risk disclosures, not evidence that a disruption has occurred.
Judge substitutability, not just location
For each dependency, document the practical alternative: a second supplier, another factory, redesign, inventory drawdown or customer qualification. Estimate the switching issue qualitatively as immediate, months, or longer, using only company disclosures and clearly labeled judgment. A low-cost component with many qualified suppliers is different from a specialized part that requires a lengthy requalification.
Analyze export controls and policy sensitivity
Policy exposure is product- and transaction-specific. Review the current filing and applicable company disclosures for:
- Products subject to export-control thresholds or end-use restrictions.
- Customers or entities requiring a license, and whether licenses have been granted, denied or are uncertain.
- Tariffs, sanctions and customs measures affecting inputs or finished goods.
- Possible Chinese or other government countermeasures.
- Whether a rule affects only China sales or also manufacturing, service, supply chains, financing and reputation.
AMD’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 27, 2026, filed in August 2026, describes the possibility of conflicting U.S. restrictions and Chinese countermeasures. It states: “To the extent our compliance with U.S. export controls and other restrictions causes us or our affiliates to become subject to these or similar Chinese countermeasures, we could face conflicting legal obligations, restrictions on our operations and transactions in China, supply chain disruption, and reputational harm, any of which could materially adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition.” This is AMD’s risk statement, not an independent estimate that the events will occur.
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Axcelis also describes export controls that affect shipments to certain customers and notes that policy changes are uncertain. When comparing companies, identify the affected product family, customer type, license status and possible workaround rather than assigning every issuer the same country discount.
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Direct China sales do not capture Taiwan-linked exposure. Trace suppliers, foundries, materials, assembly, testing and shipping routes involving Taiwan or nearby hubs. A company may sell little into China but rely on a regional node that is difficult to replace.
Cisco’s 2026 annual report conditionally warns that deterioration in China-Taiwan relations could affect sales, sourcing, suppliers and component costs. This disclosure should not be turned into a prediction of conflict. Use it to identify channels to monitor and ask whether the company has alternatives, inventory or geographic diversification.
Aggregate risk across the portfolio
After completing each issuer row, apply your actual position weights. A simple weighted direct-revenue indicator is:
Portfolio direct-China indicator = sum(position weight × issuer China-revenue percentage)
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Look for common-mode vulnerabilities
- Several holdings use the same foundry, assembly provider, component supplier or logistics route.
- Multiple companies sell products covered by the same export-control rule.
- Different holdings depend on one regional material, packaging source or testing location.
- Companies have different China revenue percentages but would all lose access to the same customer class or input.
For each common dependency, count the affected holdings and multiply by their portfolio weights. Then classify the overlap as direct sales, production, input, logistics or policy exposure. This reveals concentration that a company-by-company China percentage misses.
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Use a decision matrix instead of one score
| Dimension | Low relative exposure | Higher relative exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Direct business | No material China customer revenue disclosed, or broad diversification | Material China revenue or a small number of China-linked contracts |
| Customer concentration | No customer exceeds a material share, or many substitutable accounts | One or a few customers represent a large share of revenue |
| Operations | Multiple qualified sites and suppliers outside the affected region | Single or difficult-to-replace China or regional node |
| Policy | Products and customers outside current restrictions with clear alternatives | Licenses uncertain, restricted end uses, or possible countermeasures |
| Regional | Limited Taiwan or regional dependency and documented alternatives | Critical foundry, component or logistics link with limited substitution |
Label each cell with evidence, date and confidence. Do not convert the matrix into a precise probability or a universal “China-risk score”; no comparable cross-sector statistic establishes one.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Refresh the analysis as conditions change
Review the map after every annual and quarterly filing, material company disclosure and relevant regulatory change. Preserve the original period and definition beside superseded numbers so you can distinguish a real change from a changed reporting basis. Recheck:
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- China revenue and its trend under the same issuer definition.
- New or lost customers and changes in concentration.
- Factory, supplier, foundry, component and logistics changes.
- New licenses, denials, restricted entities, tariffs or countermeasures.
- Management statements about inventory, redesign, relocation and alternative capacity.
- Changes in portfolio weights that increase or reduce common exposure.
A historical percentage cannot tell you current-period exposure without a later filing. Keep the source period attached whenever you use it in an investment memo.
Common analytical mistakes and fixes
Treating one percentage as total exposure
Why it fails: revenue geography says little about suppliers, factories or controls. Fix: maintain the four-channel map and report the evidence separately.
Calling international sales “China sales”
Why it fails: Axcelis’s 83.7%, 85.8% and 84.1% figures are outside-U.S. revenue, not China revenue. Fix: use the issuer’s exact label and seek a China-specific disclosure before estimating.
Comparing unlike geographic definitions
Why it fails: customer location, shipment destination and asset location can produce different results. Fix: record the definition, fiscal period and filing date beside every figure.
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Why it fails: sales mix can change while factories and suppliers remain in place. Fix: update operational mapping independently.
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Reading a risk factor as a forecast
Why it fails: filings describe possible adverse outcomes and often do not quantify likelihood. Fix: quote the condition, affected channel and uncertainty without assigning an unsupported probability.
Ignoring portfolio overlap
Why it fails: several modest exposures can respond to one disruption. Fix: map shared vendors, manufacturing nodes, products and policy channels, then apply position weights.
A practical worksheet for each holding
Complete these fields before deciding whether a position changes your portfolio’s China sensitivity:
- Issuer, ticker and portfolio weight.
- Latest annual and quarterly filing dates.
- China-related revenue percentage, exact definition and fiscal period.
- Trend in that measure across available periods.
- Largest-customer percentage and whether any customer is China-linked.
- Products, end uses or customers affected by export controls or licenses.
- Manufacturing, foundry, assembly, testing and warehouse locations.
- Critical suppliers, components, materials and logistics routes.
- Taiwan or other regional dependencies.
- Documented alternatives, switching constraints and management mitigations.
- Shared dependencies with other holdings.
- Evidence confidence: disclosed fact, management assertion or your judgment.
Finish with a short scenario note: “If this policy, supply or regional event occurred, which revenue, cost, capacity and delivery channels would be affected first?” Keep that scenario separate from the factual exposure record.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often should I update a China-exposure analysis?
Refresh it after each annual or quarterly filing, a material company disclosure, or a relevant export-control, tariff or sanctions change. Keep the original fiscal period and definition beside every superseded figure.
Can a company with little China revenue still be highly exposed?
Yes. Manufacturing, suppliers, components, logistics, export licensing and Taiwan-linked dependencies can create material exposure that customer-revenue percentages do not capture.
Is there a standard China-risk score for technology stocks?
No comparable cross-sector statistic establishes one universal score. A four-channel map plus portfolio-weighted overlap is more informative than a single label.
What should I do when an issuer does not disclose China revenue?
Mark the figure as not disclosed rather than infer it from international revenue. Continue mapping operations, customers, products, suppliers and policy statements, and record the uncertainty explicitly.
The Bottom Line
Evaluate China exposure as a set of linked dependencies—not a single sales percentage. Document each issuer’s definitions and periods, separate direct revenue from operations and policy, include Taiwan-linked supply chains, and aggregate shared vulnerabilities using your actual portfolio weights.
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