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A credible prediction-market track record should show more than winning trades or a rising profit chart. To judge whether a trader has repeatable forecasting skill and manages risk, ask for a complete, timestamped record; distinguish real trades from hypothetical ones; recalculate results after costs; and examine execution, open exposure, drawdowns, contract rules, and conflicts.
Start with a complete, verifiable record
Ask for the full history, not selected screenshots or a summary chart. It should include losing trades, positions still open, voided contracts, and closed positions. For each position, look for the market and contract, side, entry and exit times, fill prices, size, fees, settlement result, and current exposure.
Establish whether the history comes from account statements or another record that can be independently checked, and whether the results are actual or hypothetical. The CFTC’s event-contract customer guidance and its trading-system guidance caution that hypothetical results are not tested under actual market conditions and may misstate performance. A polished chart cannot establish that the record is complete; historical examples may have been selected because they performed well.
Judge forecasting skill separately from trading profit
A trader can call many outcomes correctly and still make little after buying at costly prices or paying fees and spreads. Conversely, a large profit may depend on a few high-risk positions that happened to win. Treat predictive ability and the economics of the trades as separate questions.
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Look for forecasts recorded before outcomes
Ask for dated probability estimates made before the relevant events resolved. Compare those estimates with outcomes across a meaningful set of forecasts, and examine calibration by probability range and topic. A proper scoring rule, such as the Brier score, can add useful detail beyond a simple hit rate; it is an analytical tool, not a metric prescribed by the CFTC. A retrospective list of correct calls is weaker evidence because it does not show what the trader expected in advance.
A KalshiEX LLC filing submitted to the CFTC quotes forecasting researcher Philip Tetlock: “Unadjusted ex ante forecasting performance tells consumers in the media, business, and government what most want to know: how good are these guys in telling us what will happen next?” The value of the quote is its emphasis on forecasts recorded before the outcome, not on an endorsement of any particular trader or scoring method. Read the KalshiEX filing.
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Recalculate results after costs
Use actual fills to reconcile the ledger. Deduct platform fees, commissions, spreads, subscription or data expenses where applicable, and other stated trading costs. Keep settled results separate from unrealized gains or losses: an open position is not a settled win. Compare net profit with the capital deployed and the maximum capital at risk, rather than relying on a gross-profit total or percentage without its capital base. The CFTC notes that fees and taxes can affect returns and advises customers to understand commissions, fees, penalties, and other costs.
Examine risk, concentration, and ability to withstand losses
Profit alone does not show how much capital was required or how severe the losses were along the way. Review the trader’s maximum drawdown, worst losing period, largest position, topic and market concentration, correlated exposure, and time required to recover from losses. Ask what portion of the capital base could be lost if current positions resolve adversely.
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These are practical evaluation measures rather than a standardized score required by regulators. The CFTC advises monitoring open positions and trading only with risk capital. Its trading-system guidance also warns that users may not be able to withstand consecutive losses. As the CFTC puts it, “Only trade with risk capital, or money you can afford to risk after living expenses and other savings needs have been met.” CFTC event-contract guidance.
Check whether the stated performance was executable
A backtest or paper record may assume a price that could not be obtained in a live market. Compare recorded prices with actual fill prices, available market depth, bid-ask spreads, trade size, and whether the trader could enter and exit without moving the price. This matters especially in less liquid markets, where an order can affect execution price. CFTC guidance warns that hypothetical results may omit spreads and that actual execution can change results. CFTC trading-system guidance.
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Read the contract rules and account for platform differences
For each market in the record, confirm the exact event that resolves the contract, the source used to determine the outcome, settlement timing, payout calculation, and treatment of ambiguous or canceled outcomes. Those terms affect what a position means and what it pays. The CFTC says customers should have transparent contract information, including how settlement decisions are made and by whom. CFTC event-contract guidance.
Do not assume that results from different platforms or contract types are directly comparable. Segment the record when resolution rules, payout structures, liquidity, or access differ. Public data access also depends on the product. Polymarket says trades for its International wallets are on-chain and publicly visible, while describing its US product separately. That is the operator’s statement, not a universal rule for prediction markets; check the rules and available records for the exact product being evaluated. Polymarket’s explanation.
Consider conflicts and promotional claims
Ask whether the trader could influence the event, had professional or personal access to nonpublic information, coordinated accounts, or failed to disclose relevant conflicts. A profitable record does not by itself show that trading was proper. In an advisory dated February 25, 2026, the CFTC described enforcement examples involving a trader who appeared to trade on their own candidacy and another employed by a YouTube channel whose videos were the subject of contracts. CFTC enforcement advisory.
Treat claims of guaranteed returns, unusually high returns with little risk, or opaque algorithmic methods cautiously. Ask how the results were produced and whether costs, spreads, and any subscription expenses are included. The CFTC warns that “AI technology can’t predict the future or sudden market changes.” CFTC advisory on AI trading systems.
Compare traders on the same evidence
When weighing two or more traders, use consistent definitions and compare records across the same dimensions. Where contract types or platforms differ, treat that as a comparability limitation rather than assuming the headline returns mean the same thing.
Quick Recap
| Dimension | What to compare |
|---|---|
| Record quality | Full account history versus selected screenshots; actual trades versus hypothetical performance; independent verifiability |
| Forecast quality | Dated probability forecasts, calibration by probability range and domain, and number of observations |
| Financial performance | Net profit after costs; realized versus unrealized results; return relative to capital deployed |
| Risk | Maximum drawdown, open exposure, position concentration, correlated markets, and worst losing period |
| Execution | Fill quality, spreads, liquidity, order size, market impact, and ability to exit |
| Contract comparability | Resolution rules, payout structure, platform, and settlement timing |
| Integrity | Conflicts, access to nonpublic information, ability to influence an event, and compliance concerns |
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