To compare Bitcoin with Treasury yields, first decide whether you mean Bitcoin’s realized price return versus a quoted Treasury yield, or the returns an investor actually earned from Bitcoin and a Treasury investment over the same dates. Those are different comparisons: a Treasury constant-maturity yield is an annualized market quotation, not the holding-period return from owning a bond.
Choose the comparison you want to make
There are two useful questions, but they require different Treasury figures:
- Yield-hurdle comparison: Did Bitcoin’s realized return over a specified period exceed the annualized yield quoted for a Treasury maturity? This compares Bitcoin performance with a yield benchmark; it does not compare two equivalent realized investment returns.
- Investment-return comparison: What did Bitcoin return, and what would an investor have earned by holding a Treasury investment for the same period? Specify a Treasury security or a named Treasury total-return series. Include bond price changes and coupon income; a constant-maturity Treasury (CMT) quote cannot stand in for that result.
State which question you are answering before presenting numbers. Without that distinction, a reader may mistake a yield quotation for an investment’s realized return.
Calculate Bitcoin’s return over a defined period
For a Bitcoin price series denominated in U.S. dollars, the simple holding-period price return is:
What’s actually slowing this PC down?
Pick the symptom - the matching free tool is one click away.
(ending price ÷ starting price) − 1
Name the price source or benchmark, currency, start and end dates, and observation-time rule. A reproducible reference is the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate described in a SEC-hosted Nasdaq filing: it is calculated at 4 p.m. Eastern Time from platform trading activity during the 3–4 p.m. Eastern Time window. That is one benchmark convention, not the only way to define Bitcoin’s price; its constituent platforms may change.
Annualize only when the comparison calls for it
For a multi-year holding-period return, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) expresses the result as a single annualized rate:
Rank #2
(ending value ÷ starting value)1 / years − 1
Use the actual elapsed time in years, and identify that annualization is being used. CAGR compresses the path into one rate; it does not show interim volatility or drawdowns.
Understand what a Treasury yield measures
The U.S. Treasury’s daily par yield curve is estimated from indicative bid-side price quotations for recently auctioned securities, obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 p.m. on each trading day. These are indicative quotations, not transaction prices. Treasury estimates the curve using the monotone convex method; it replaced the former method on December 6, 2021. Treasury describes the curve and its inputs in its daily Treasury yield curve rates materials.
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesA CMT yield is read from this theoretical par yield curve at a fixed maturity. It may not match the yield on any specific Treasury security. Treasury’s interest-rate FAQ explains that CMT yields are read directly from the daily par yield curve.
Bond-equivalent yield is not APY
CMT yields are simple annualized, bond-equivalent quotations for securities paying semiannual interest; they are not effective annual yields or APYs. If an effective annual convention is needed, Treasury gives this conversion for a decimal CMT yield I:
(1 + I/2)2 − 1
Convert only when that convention is appropriate to the comparison, and label the converted figure. Do not compare a bond-equivalent yield with an effective annual rate as if their conventions were identical.
Match the dates and conventions
For a reproducible comparison, align the start and end dates, currency, holding period, and annualization method. Also state how you selected endpoint prices. Treasury curve observations are based on trading-day quotations at or near 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time, while the cited Bitcoin benchmark uses a 4 p.m. rate derived from a 3–4 p.m. window. Different observation times or Bitcoin price sources can change the result, particularly because Bitcoin can move substantially between observations.
If the comparison is meant to account for inflation, consider a real Treasury yield rather than a nominal one. Treasury’s real par yield curve is based on TIPS quotations, and its series began January 2, 2004; see daily Treasury real yield curve rates. Make clear whether the comparison is nominal or inflation-adjusted, and treat both sides consistently. A nominal Bitcoin price return compared with a real Treasury yield mixes conventions.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Do not treat outperformance as proof of investment quality
A raw Bitcoin return compared with a Treasury yield is not risk-adjusted and does not establish which investment is preferable. For an investment-quality comparison, calculate realized volatility and maximum drawdown over the same dates. For risk-adjusted returns, specify the risk-free-rate convention and calculation rather than labeling a simple return comparison “risk-adjusted.”
A Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago working paper published in August 2026 estimates time-varying Bitcoin betas and reports that, in its specifications, Bitcoin betas for Treasury bond returns were not distinguishable from zero. That is a study-specific result, not a finding that applies to every period or a prediction of future performance: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago working paper.
Report the result without overstating it
A clear headline or chart label should identify the measure on each side. For example: “Bitcoin’s USD price return, measured from [start] to [end] using [named benchmark], compared with the [maturity] Treasury CMT yield quoted on [date].” If the question is what an investor earned, replace the CMT quote with a specified Treasury holding-period total return that includes coupon income and price movement.
PC Slower Than It Used to Be?
A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11Outdated Drivers Are Slowing You Down
One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchDo not present a Bitcoin return and a single Treasury yield as a matched-period performance result unless the calculation actually uses a Treasury investment return over those same dates. Neither comparison by itself forecasts future returns.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
