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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11The Iran conflict and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz tightened fertilizer supplies just as U.S. farmers needed to buy and apply them for spring planting. The shock raised costs and threatened timely delivery, but it did not affect every fertilizer equally. By the end of August 2026, urea prices had returned to January levels, while phosphate and sulfur remained elevated, according to the IFPRI Food Security Portal’s September 21 update.
Why the Iran conflict affected fertilizer
The disruption reached farmers through two linked channels: shipping and energy. The Strait of Hormuz is a route for fertilizer and fertilizer inputs from the Persian Gulf. Reuters reported on March 13, 2026, that more than 30% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, as well as components such as sulfur, passed through the strait. That is a share of global trade exposed to the route—not the share of U.S. fertilizer supply that was lost.
Natural gas is both a feedstock and an energy source for producing nitrogen fertilizer, so energy-market disruption can affect production costs as well as shipping. Sulfur, meanwhile, is used in phosphate fertilizer production; the University of Illinois farmdoc daily analysis published April 24 also identified Gulf supply as relevant to that input. The result was pressure across connected markets, not a uniform shortage of every crop nutrient.
U.S. exposure included imports and a lean delivery system. Reuters reported that the United States imported half of its urea in some years, and described limited dealer inventories and a “just-in-time” business model. It also reported concern that cargoes might go to destinations offering higher prices because New Orleans prices lagged global prices. That was a contemporaneous market concern, not confirmation that a particular shipment was diverted.
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What the March shortage estimate meant
On March 13, Reuters reported The Fertilizer Institute’s estimate that U.S. supplies farmers typically buy for spring planting were about 25% below usual levels. This was an industry estimate for that spring purchasing window, not a measurement of a continuing U.S. shortage in October or of all fertilizer physically present in the country.
Timing made the shortfall especially consequential. Fertilizer arriving after a crop’s application window may not help that season’s crop. A shipment also has to travel from the Gulf and then move inland by barge, truck, or train. For a farmer facing planting deadlines, a product that eventually reaches the country can still arrive too late to solve the immediate need.
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Fertilizer prices followed different paths
Prices varied by nutrient and by date. These figures describe distinct market measures: global price movements in IFPRI’s September review and U.S. prices reported by farmdoc daily for one week in April. They should not be treated as a single current U.S. farmgate price.
| Product or measure | Reported movement or price | What the figure describes |
|---|---|---|
| Urea | Almost 80% above January 1 levels in late April; back to January levels by the end of August | Global price trend reported by the IFPRI Food Security Portal on September 21, 2026 |
| U.S. urea | $858 per ton | U.S. average for the week of April 13, 2026; 41.1% above the week of February 16 and 48.7% above a year earlier, according to University of Illinois farmdoc daily on April 24 |
| Anhydrous ammonia | $1,114 per ton | U.S. average for the week of April 13, 2026, as reported by University of Illinois farmdoc daily on April 24 |
| UAN32 | $579 per ton | U.S. average for the week of April 13, 2026, as reported by University of Illinois farmdoc daily on April 24 |
| MAP and DAP phosphate | 25%–30% above pre-closure levels | Global prices rose after the strait’s closure and remained at those elevated levels in IFPRI’s September 21 update |
| Sulfur | More than doubled over six months | Global price movement reported by IFPRI on September 21, 2026 |
The contrast matters: easing urea prices did not mean phosphate costs had also returned to earlier levels. Nor can global price trends alone establish what a farmer paid locally; U.S. prices, delivery costs, contracts, and dealer availability can differ.
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Having fertilizer booked did not guarantee affordability
Advance orders helped some farmers manage timing, but not necessarily the bill. In the American Farm Bureau Federation survey summarized by University of Illinois farmdoc daily on April 24, about 70% of respondents said they could not afford all the fertilizer they needed. The survey also showed regional differences in advance purchasing: 67% of Midwestern respondents said they had secured fertilizer ahead of the season, compared with 19% in the South, 30% in the Northeast, and 31% in the West. These are survey responses, not a census of farms in each region.
This distinction is important for household-finance readers, too: supply availability and affordability are separate problems. A farmer may have reserved product but still face a much higher input bill, or may be willing to pay but unable to get the right nutrient delivered in time.
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What had changed by September 2026
IFPRI’s September 21 market review said fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf remained largely halted. Some shipping resumed during a ceasefire from mid-June to mid-July, but fertilizer products made up a negligible share of those shipments; after hostilities resumed in mid-July, tracked fertilizer shipments fell close to zero.
Even so, other suppliers partly filled the gap. IFPRI reported that global nitrogen exports declined 9% in January–June 2026 compared with January–June 2025, based on mirror trade data from 77 reporting importers. It said global nitrogen and phosphate exports both fell by about 9%, while China, the United States, and other suppliers partly offset reduced Gulf shipments. The decline is a global trade measure, not a direct estimate of U.S. farm supply.
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IFPRI attributed some easing in nitrogen prices to higher Chinese exports and low seasonal demand in major importing countries. It cautioned that seasonal demand could put prices under renewed upward pressure if shipping disruptions continued. Its September review is a global snapshot; the evidence cited here does not establish October U.S. farmgate prices or local dealer inventories.
What the USDA phosphate action was expected to do
On June 29, 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a temporary suspension of countervailing duties on certain phosphate fertilizer imports. USDA projected that the action could reduce phosphate fertilizer prices by about 22% and save farmers approximately $1.82 billion annually. Those are the department’s estimated effects, not confirmed price reductions or realized savings for farms.
What this does—and does not—say about food prices
Higher fertilizer costs or late deliveries can create pressure on farm finances and affect decisions about nutrient application or planting. But the figures above do not establish that the disruption reduced U.S. crop yields or raised grocery prices. Those outcomes depend on what farmers ultimately planted and applied, subsequent supply and prices, and other factors; the cited sources do not measure a realized crop or retail-food-price effect.
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