A farmdoc daily model estimated that the House agriculture reconciliation proposal would raise outlays for PLC, ARC-CO, and marketing-assistance loan programs for six major crops by $29.873 billion, or 64%, over FY2025–FY2035. The estimate compared $76.361 billion under the proposal with $46.488 billion under then-current programs, assuming base acres stayed unchanged. It was a model of the House proposal—not a CBO score or a tally of payments actually made. The proposal later became law in amended form, so its modeled terms should not be confused with current program rules.
What the House proposal’s spending estimate covered
Farmdoc daily’s May 20, 2025 analysis modeled outlays for three programs—Price Loss Coverage (PLC), Agriculture Risk Coverage–County (ARC-CO), and marketing-assistance loans—for corn, soybeans, wheat, seed cotton, peanuts, and rice. For those six crops, it estimated $46.488 billion under then-current programs and $76.361 billion under the House proposal over FY2025–FY2035: a modeled increase of $29.873 billion, or 64%. The estimate assumed base acres remained unchanged.
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This is a crop-specific simulation, not the full cost of the agriculture title or the whole reconciliation bill. It estimates program outlays over a particular period and under stated assumptions; it does not report observed payments.
Which changes drove the modeled increase?
Higher PLC reference prices
The House proposal raised statutory PLC reference prices for the six crops for 2025–2030 and provided for a 0.5% annual increase beginning in 2031. Farmdoc’s comparison of current and proposed reference prices for 2025–2030 was:
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| Crop | Current reference price | House proposal, 2025–2030 | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | $3.70 per bushel | $4.10 per bushel | 11% |
| Soybeans | $8.40 per bushel | $10.00 per bushel | 19% |
| Wheat | $5.50 per bushel | $6.35 per bushel | 15% |
| Seed cotton | $0.367 per pound | $0.420 per pound | 14% |
| Peanuts | $535 per ton | $630 per ton | 18% |
| Rice | $14.00 per hundredweight | $16.90 per hundredweight | 21% |
PLC makes payments when the national average market price for a covered commodity in a crop year falls below its statutory reference price. A higher reference price can therefore increase the likelihood or size of payments, depending on market prices and program calculations.
Higher ARC-CO coverage and payment cap
The proposal raised ARC-CO’s coverage level from 86% to 90% and its maximum payment from 10% to 12.5% of benchmark revenue. ARC-CO pays when actual county crop revenue falls below the county guarantee. Farmdoc said the higher coverage level would make payments occur more frequently.
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Higher marketing-assistance loan rates
The proposal also increased marketing-assistance loan rates by 10% for the six major program crops included in the analysis.
Estimated outlays by crop
The following are farmdoc’s modeled estimates in billions of dollars for FY2025–FY2035. The increase compares the House proposal with then-current programs; the percentages are the estimated increases over the current-program amount.
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | $22.534 billion | $26.530 billion | $3.996 billion | 18% |
| Soybeans | $5.970 billion | $10.228 billion | $4.258 billion | 71% |
| Wheat | $5.619 billion | $9.918 billion | $4.299 billion | 77% |
| Seed cotton | $5.280 billion | $11.394 billion | $6.114 billion | 116% |
| Peanuts | $2.801 billion | $6.077 billion | $3.276 billion | 117% |
| Rice | $4.284 billion | $12.214 billion | $7.930 billion | 185% |
| Total | $46.488 billion | $76.361 billion | $29.873 billion | 64% |
Rice had the largest modeled percentage increase, while corn had the smallest. Farmdoc also estimated that a proposed $3.30-higher corn floor would reduce corn outlays by $3.465 billion over the period relative to the modeled changes. That is a separate estimate about the effect of that floor, not the corn row’s total net increase shown above.
How this estimate differs from other federal spending figures
Other estimates concern different provisions, policy versions, time periods, and scopes. They are not interchangeable with farmdoc’s six-crop model.
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| Figure | What it measures | Period and scope |
|---|---|---|
| $29.873 billion increase | Farmdoc authors’ model of the House proposal, compared with then-current programs; base acres held constant. | FY2025–FY2035; PLC, ARC-CO, and marketing-assistance loans for six crops. |
| About $52.3 billion and $1.6 billion in increased outlays | CBO estimates, as reported by the Congressional Research Service, for House bill Sections 10101 and 10108, respectively. | Ten years; broader provisions than the farmdoc six-crop simulation. |
| Roughly $238 billion in deficit reduction | CBO’s projected net effect for Title I, as reported by CRS. | Ten years; Title I overall, not a standalone estimate of these three programs for six crops. |
| $72.19 billion | USDA’s estimate of ARC and PLC payments reported by the Government Accountability Office in its analysis of the final rule. | FY2027–FY2036; enacted-law rule analysis, with a different period and policy baseline. |
What changed after the House proposal
The House passed H.R. 1 on May 22, 2025. The bill later became Public Law 119-21 in amended form. The House-era simulation does not describe the enacted law’s full terms or current payment totals.
The Congressional Research Service summarized the House-passed version as extending commodity support programs through crop year 2031 and increasing ARC revenue guarantees, PLC reference prices, payment limits, and marketing-assistance loan rates. The enacted law continued ARC and PLC with modifications for crop years 2026 through 2031. USDA’s January 2026 final rule implements those enacted changes.
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- For crop year 2025, the final rule provides for the higher of ARC-CO or PLC payments regardless of the producer’s election.
- Beginning with crop year 2026, the law provides for up to 30 million additional base acres based on farm planting history, and updates reference-price and ARC-guarantee calculations.
- USDA’s current overview says the enacted law raised PLC and ARC payment limits to $155,000 per person or legal entity and ties future adjustments to inflation.
These final-law implementation details are separate from the assumptions in the House-proposal simulation.
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