A 2025 farmdoc analysis estimates that safety-net assistance covered 80.6% of the harvest economic losses across nine major U.S. crops in 2024. The authors put the combined loss at $29.5 billion before assistance and $5.7 billion afterward. Those are estimates—not a final payment reconciliation—and they measure economic costs, including some costs that do not appear as cash outlays.
What the 2024 estimate says
Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, and Gary Schnitkey estimated that included safety-net payments reduced the nine crops’ combined harvest loss from 16.8% to 3.3% of total economic costs. In dollar terms, their analysis estimates $29.5 billion in aggregate loss and $5.7 billion remaining after assistance—an 80.6% offset. The figures were published October 16, 2025, using payment estimates available in early October 2025; they are not current 2026 totals. Read the farmdoc analysis.
The result describes an accounting comparison, not proof that payments were optimally targeted, fairly distributed, or responsible for a measured improvement in producer welfare.
Which crops and payments were counted?
The analysis covers barley, corn, cotton, oats, peanuts, rice, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat. It combines USDA Economic Research Service estimates of per-acre economic costs and net economic returns with USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service planted-acre figures.
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Included assistance spans four categories: crop-insurance indemnities net of farmer-paid premiums, plus Farm Service Agency payments under ECAP, SDRP, and ARC/PLC. The authors classify ECAP and SDRP as ad hoc assistance, and crop insurance and commodity programs as standing programs. ECAP and SDRP were authorized in December 2024, during the crop year assessed.
Coverage differed sharply by crop
The aggregate result masks substantial variation. The authors’ estimated loss-coverage rates include:
| Crop | Estimated loss covered |
|---|---|
| Peanuts | 180% |
| Seed cotton | 123% |
| Soybeans | 81% |
| Corn | 75% |
| Wheat | 52% |
| Oats | 45% |
These are the farmdoc authors’ estimates, not independently recalculated figures. Coverage above 100% means included assistance exceeded the measured loss under this accounting method; it does not, by itself, establish that a producer was overcompensated. Rice is not included in the loss-coverage chart because the authors estimated a slight positive net economic return at harvest, although they report $0.7 billion in total assistance for rice.
What “economic loss” means here
The measure is broader than a farm’s cash expenses. The ERS economic-cost estimates include opportunity costs for unpaid family labor and owned land and equipment. A farm can therefore have positive cash flow and still show a loss under this measure, or face a different result when its own cash expenses are compared with revenue.
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For the same reason, the estimated payment coverage should not be read as the share of each farm’s bills reimbursed. It compares estimated crop-level economic losses with selected program payments at an aggregate level.
How much came from ad hoc assistance?
The authors attribute 65% of total assistance to ad hoc programs. ECAP was the largest assistance source in their accounting, while ARC and PLC together were the smallest. The estimate reflects the programs and payment data included in the analysis, with some totals still estimated when the authors assembled them.
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USDA ERS’s review of assistance programs implemented from 2017 through 2022 provides historical context: it reports that ad hoc assistance grew substantially from 2017 to 2021 and then declined in 2022. That history does not validate the separate 2024 payment estimates. USDA ERS, Recent Developments in Ad Hoc Assistance Programs for Agricultural Producers.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the figures are estimates, not a final settlement
When the authors prepared their analysis, ECAP and crop-insurance payments were largely complete, but ARC/PLC and especially SDRP figures included estimates. As a result, the reported totals could differ from a final accounting as payments were completed.
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Timing also matters: the analysis treats ECAP and SDRP as assistance authorized during the crop year. The authors caution that providing support during a crop year increases the possibility of too much or too little support for the sector and individual crops. The comparison measures the estimated relationship between payments and losses; it does not resolve whether the aid reached the right farms, arrived when needed, or matched each producer’s loss.
How to use the result
The estimate is useful for understanding the scale and mix of 2024 crop support: across nine crops, assistance substantially narrowed measured aggregate economic losses, with ad hoc programs accounting for most of the assistance in the authors’ accounting. It is not a measure of every U.S. crop, every farm’s financial position, or the fairness and effectiveness of each program.
For broader historical context on government payments and farm-sector profitability, the Congressional Research Service discusses the role of ad hoc commodity and disaster assistance alongside farm-bill commodity support in changes to direct government payments since 2018. Its 2024 report predates the farmdoc analysis and is not a reconciliation of 2024 crop-year payments. CRS, 2023 and 2024 Farm Sector Profitability: Issues for Congress.
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