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What the available state-by-state estimates actually show
GOBankingRates published estimates for an individual retiring at 35, 45, or 55. Its calculation used annual expenditure inputs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 2021 Consumer Expenditure Survey, adjusted those inputs using MERIC’s Q1 2023 state cost-of-living indexes, and divided the resulting estimated spending by a 4% withdrawal rate. The publisher said the figures were accurate as of June 2023 and did not account for future inflation.
Those are publisher-created estimates, not official state budgets or guaranteed savings requirements. The following figures illustrate the scale and variation in that source’s age-35 estimates; each is for one individual, not a couple.
| Measure | Reported figure | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Annual expenditure input at age 35 | $79,712 | Input used in the source’s 2023 method |
| Annual expenditure input at age 45 | $83,854 | Input used in the source’s 2023 method |
| Annual expenditure input at age 55 | $70,570 | Input used in the source’s 2023 method |
| Mississippi, retiring at 35 | $2,930,331 | Individual savings estimate |
| Alabama, retiring at 35 | $3,111,685 | Individual savings estimate |
| Alaska, retiring at 35 | $4,273,543 | Individual savings estimate |
| California, retiring at 35 | $4,620,511 | Individual savings estimate |
| Hawaii, retiring at 35 | $6,149,230 | Individual savings estimate; Hawaii was highest in this analysis |
The full state table appears in GOBankingRates’ June 13, 2023 article, “How Much To Save in Every State If You Want To Retire Early.” Treat its entries as dated individual benchmarks, not current couple targets. The article’s explanatory text has apparent transcription inconsistencies and repeated values, so check a state row against the stated method and your local costs before relying on it.
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Why you should not double an individual estimate
A couple’s spending is not necessarily twice one person’s spending. Two people may share housing, utilities, transportation, and some other costs, while healthcare and other expenses can depend on both people’s circumstances. A statewide price index cannot tell you what a particular couple will spend in a specific city, with a particular home, insurance arrangement, tax situation, or retirement date.
BLS consumer-expenditure data are organized around a “consumer unit.” That unit can include related household members, a financially independent person sharing a household, or people living together who make joint spending decisions. It is useful for describing broad spending patterns, but it does not specify your household budget.
For state comparisons, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes regional price parities, a way to compare relative price levels. Its latest state statistics cited here cover 2024. That measure can help frame differences in purchasing power, but it is not a substitute for estimating your own expenses in the locality where you plan to live.
Build a target from your own couple’s budget
Start with the annual amount your household expects to spend in retirement, not a state average. Estimate costs for the place you plan to live and for the years before and after either spouse becomes eligible for Medicare or begins receiving benefits.
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- Set the retirement date and planning horizon. Record when each spouse expects to stop working, whether both will stop at the same time, and how long the plan may need to support the household. A retirement beginning well before traditional retirement age can last considerably longer than the 30-year horizon associated with the familiar historical 4% rule.
- Make a locality-specific spending budget. Include housing and upkeep, food, transportation, utilities, insurance, travel, taxes, debt payments, and irregular expenses. Separate costs that are shared from those that may rise when both spouses are retired.
- Price health coverage year by year before Medicare. If you retire before 65 and lose job-based coverage, you may be able to buy a plan through the Health Insurance Marketplace. The application determines whether your household qualifies for premium tax credits or lower out-of-pocket costs. Do not assume one universal premium: eligibility and costs depend on household circumstances.
- Estimate each spouse’s income on its own timeline. Record expected Social Security or other income only for the years and amounts you reasonably expect to receive it. Social Security says a spouse may begin benefits as early as 62, but claiming early can reduce the benefit. The exact result depends on the spouse’s record and claiming decision.
- Calculate the remaining amount the portfolio must cover. For each year, subtract reliable expected income from the spending budget, while accounting for taxes and healthcare costs. The resulting gap—not a generic state figure—is the amount your savings and investments need to support.
- Stress-test more than one outcome. Compare different withdrawal assumptions and market paths, including poor returns early in retirement, changing expenses, and different benefit start dates. If the plan only works under one favorable combination, revisit the retirement date, spending, or savings target.
How to interpret the 4% rule for early retirement
The Social Security Administration’s 2020 research paper describes the familiar rule as withdrawing 4% of retirement assets in the first year, then adjusting that spending amount for inflation in later years. Its cited historical basis considered a 30-year retirement. It is a rule of thumb drawn from historical analysis, not a government guarantee or a personalized safe rate.
Someone retiring at 35 or 45 may need savings to last much longer than 30 years. That longer horizon is one reason a 4%-based estimate should not be presented as a definitive early-retirement target. A couple should evaluate its own time horizon, spending flexibility, portfolio assumptions, and income schedule rather than treating the source’s arithmetic as a promise.
Keep conventional-retirement estimates separate
A newer calculation published by Kiplinger uses BLS 2024 spending for people 65 and older, MERIC Q3 2025 state cost-of-living indexes, and average Social Security income from an SSA November 2025 snapshot. It estimates a conventional-retirement savings gap using a 4% calculation. That is a different method for a different retirement profile; its Social Security subtraction should not be inserted into the 2023 early-retirement estimates or treated as a projection for a couple retiring decades before 65.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What a useful state comparison should include
When weighing where to retire, compare states using the same household assumptions rather than ranking them by a single cost-of-living figure. For each candidate location, write down:
- Annual spending for both spouses and the specific locality, not just the state.
- Whether the couple rents, owns outright, or will still have a mortgage, along with expected housing upkeep.
- Health insurance costs and any expected Marketplace assistance for each pre-Medicare year.
- Taxes and debt payments included in the household budget.
- Each spouse’s expected benefit amount and start date.
- The retirement start date, planning horizon, and withdrawal and market scenarios used to test the plan.
The Department of Labor’s retirement guide includes planning worksheets that can help organize the inputs. A worksheet is a planning aid, not a guarantee that its assumptions fit your state, insurance options, taxes, or timeline.
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