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That operating link does not establish that mortgage rates alone caused a change in Home Depot’s sales—or a particular move in its stock. The company’s results also reflect factors such as consumer uncertainty, storms, housing conditions and the fiscal calendar. To assess the stock, investors need a separate, date-defined total-return comparison rather than an inference from rates and share prices moving at the same time.
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How mortgage rates can affect Home Depot
Borrowing costs influence affordability and moving decisions
A higher mortgage rate raises the cost of financing a home purchase. Combined with home-price changes, that can make buying less affordable and reduce the incentive for current owners to sell and move. When a household stays put, it may not need the same repairs, improvements or purchases it would have made while preparing a home for sale or settling into a new one.
Home Depot’s chief financial officer, Richard McPhail, described this connection on the company’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call: “The current mortgage rate environment and significant increase in home prices since 2019 have impacted housing affordability.” He also said housing turnover “has remained at historical lows since 2023,” significantly reducing demand for projects and other purchases associated with buying and selling a home. These comments identify a channel management sees in its business; they do not quantify how much of the company’s sales change it explains.
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Fewer transactions can mean fewer move-related projects
A home purchase or sale can bring a cluster of spending: repairs before listing, updates after closing, and purchases to adapt a new home. If fewer homes change hands, fewer households may undertake that transaction-linked work. This is the most direct way mortgage conditions can reach a home-improvement retailer: rates affect housing activity, and housing activity can affect demand for products and projects.
The link is indirect and can operate with a delay. A rate change does not instantly translate into a matching change in Home Depot receipts. Buyers, sellers and homeowners make decisions for different reasons and on different timelines, and the company’s reported sales combine many categories and customer needs.
High rates can also weigh on projects beyond moving
Home Depot has said that a persistent high-interest-rate environment pressured broader home-improvement demand. Financing costs can matter to households considering large projects, while housing affordability and consumer uncertainty may affect willingness to commit to discretionary work. That does not mean every homeowner stops renovating when rates rise: maintenance continues, and some households may choose smaller or more manageable projects instead.
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What Home Depot’s statements establish—and what they do not
The company has explicitly connected housing affordability and low turnover with weaker demand associated with buying and selling homes. Its fiscal 2025 proxy statement also says the business faced “a persisting high interest rate environment” that continued to pressure broader home-improvement demand. Those are management’s descriptions of operating conditions, not a statistical estimate isolating the effect of mortgage rates from other influences.
In its February 24, 2026 fiscal 2025 results release, CEO Ted Decker said: “For the fourth quarter, our results were largely in-line with our expectations, reflecting the lack of storm activity in the third quarter and ongoing consumer uncertainty and pressure in housing. Adjusting for storms, underlying demand was relatively stable throughout the year.” The storm adjustment is management’s characterization; it is not an independent calculation of the mortgage-rate effect.
For its December 2025 investor conference, Home Depot presented a housing-market context in which more than 70% of outstanding mortgages were below 5%, alongside a 4.3% average effective mortgage rate. Those are figures in that dated company presentation, not current mortgage-rate quotes. They help explain why existing homeowners may face different borrowing conditions from prospective buyers, but they should not be treated as a live measure of rates or as proof that any particular homeowner will stay in place.
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What the recent results say about sales and earnings
Home Depot’s fiscal 2025 ran for 52 weeks, whereas fiscal 2024 had 53 weeks. The company said the extra week contributed approximately $2.5 billion in fiscal 2024 sales. That calendar difference matters when comparing headline annual revenue: the older year includes an additional selling week, so raw year-over-year totals are not a clean measure of underlying demand.
| Period or measure | Reported figure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal 2025 net sales | $164.7 billion, up 3.2% | Fiscal 2025 had 52 weeks; fiscal 2024’s 53rd week added approximately $2.5 billion to that year’s sales. Compare periods with the calendar difference in mind. |
| Fiscal 2025 comparable sales | Up 0.3% | A comparable-sales measure provides context beyond the total-sales change; it does not isolate the influence of mortgage rates. |
| Fiscal 2025 U.S. comparable sales | Up 0.5% | This is the U.S. comparable-sales figure, not the company-wide result. |
| Fiscal 2025 net earnings | $14.2 billion, down 4.4% | Sales growth did not mean earnings also grew. Revenue and profitability answer different questions. |
| Fiscal 2026 second-quarter sales | $47.9 billion, up 5.7% year over year | In the August 18, 2026 results, management said customers continued to engage in smaller projects. This shows demand can persist even in a challenging housing environment; it does not disprove the rate channel. |
The fiscal 2025 results and figures above come from Home Depot’s results release and fiscal 2026 guidance and its 2026 proxy statement. The second-quarter figures are from the company’s fiscal 2026 second-quarter results.
The figures show why one sales number is not enough to diagnose mortgage-rate effects. Fiscal 2025 sales increased, comparable sales grew modestly, and net earnings declined. None of those observations alone proves that rates had no effect or that rates caused the result. The company’s results also reflect storms, consumer uncertainty, housing conditions and other business factors.
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How to evaluate Home Depot’s outlook
For fiscal 2026, Home Depot forecast total sales growth of approximately 2.5%–4.5%, comparable-sales growth from roughly flat to 2.0%, and diluted earnings-per-share growth from roughly flat to 4.0% compared with fiscal 2025. These are company forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes or a rate-sensitivity estimate. They provide a baseline against which later results can be assessed, but they do not say what sales or earnings would have been under a different mortgage-rate path.
To judge whether housing conditions may be affecting the business, examine several measures together rather than treating a single annual sales figure as proof:
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- Comparable sales: Check whether sales at comparable locations are growing, flat or declining, and distinguish the U.S. figure from the company-wide figure.
- Transactions and average ticket: If available in company reporting, these can help distinguish changes in customer count from changes in spending per transaction. Neither measure by itself identifies the cause.
- Project mix: Consider management’s comments about move-related work, large projects and smaller maintenance jobs. A shift in mix may matter even when customers continue to spend.
- Operating context: Read results alongside comments on storms, consumer uncertainty, housing and other factors the company identifies.
- Calendar basis: Confirm the number of weeks in each fiscal year before interpreting annual growth.
- Guidance versus results: Compare actual performance with the company’s stated outlook, while remembering that guidance reflects assumptions and can change.
This approach separates observed company data from an explanation of why it changed. The fiscal 2024 Form 10-K also describes broader business risks, including macroeconomic conditions, housing and credit markets, consumer credit and interest-rate changes. Those risks reinforce why it is unsafe to attribute a reported sales result to mortgages alone.
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Why a sales explanation is not a stock explanation
A company’s operating results can influence how investors view its future, but a share-price return is not the same thing as a sales trend. Stock prices can reflect expectations about future housing activity, earnings, interest rates and many other influences. Investors may price in a possible recovery before it appears in reported sales, or react to information unrelated to mortgage demand.
The cited company filings and earnings comments support a discussion of business conditions. They do not calculate how sensitive HD shares are to mortgage rates, nor do they demonstrate that a particular rate move caused a particular stock-price move. The available company stock page offers a historical stock lookup, but a rate-versus-stock comparison requires a separate calculation.
A defensible way to compare HD with mortgage rates
- Choose a specific period. State the start and end dates for both the rate observation and the share-return calculation. Avoid selecting dates after seeing which comparison looks most persuasive.
- Define the return. Say whether the HD figure is price return or total return, including dividends. A price-only change and a dividend-inclusive return are not interchangeable.
- Choose a benchmark. Compare HD over the same dates with a suitable broad-market benchmark so that a general market rise or fall is not mistaken for a company-specific effect.
- Use an actual mortgage-rate series. The Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts release is not a mortgage-rate observation series; its mortgage-related balance-sheet data do not measure Home Depot demand. Use a dedicated rate series if adding rate levels to the comparison.
- Keep correlation separate from causation. A chart can show that rates and shares moved during the same period. It cannot, by itself, establish that mortgage rates caused the share move or quantify the business impact.
Without those definitions and calculations, the responsible conclusion is limited: mortgage rates can influence Home Depot’s business outlook through affordability and housing turnover, but the cited evidence does not establish a standalone causal effect on HD stock performance.
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| Housing or customer condition | Possible channel to Home Depot | What to examine |
|---|---|---|
| Affordability pressure and low turnover persist | Fewer home transactions may reduce purchases and projects associated with buying or selling. | Management commentary on turnover and move-related demand, alongside comparable sales and reported project mix. |
| Housing activity improves | More moves could support transaction-related repairs, updates and purchases. | Look for reported evidence of stronger housing-linked demand; do not assume a rate decline automatically produces an immediate sales increase. |
| Owners stay put but continue smaller work | Maintenance and smaller projects can continue even if large, move-related projects are weaker. | Customer and project commentary, including the company’s fiscal 2026 second-quarter note on engagement in smaller projects. |
| Storm activity or uncertainty changes | Demand may shift for reasons separate from mortgage rates, complicating comparisons across quarters. | Management’s discussion of storm effects and consumer conditions, and whether comparisons reflect similar periods. |
These are ways to organize evidence, not predictions. Home Depot’s own description of fiscal 2025 underlying demand as relatively stable after adjusting for storms is management’s assessment, and it should not be reinterpreted as a measured estimate of what mortgage rates did.
Quick Recap
Common mistakes when connecting rates, sales and shares
- Giving rates sole credit or blame. Company leadership has also cited storms, consumer uncertainty and housing pressure; filings identify a wider set of economic and credit risks.
- Treating total sales growth as proof that rates did not matter. A company can grow sales while facing a headwind, and the reported total does not reveal the counterfactual result without that headwind.
- Comparing unequal fiscal years without adjustment. Fiscal 2024 included a 53rd week; fiscal 2025 did not.
- Assuming every homeowner responds alike. The mechanism is about affordability and demand patterns, not a rule that all owners cancel projects when rates are high.
- Reading simultaneous movement as causation. A correlation between a rate series and HD shares over chosen dates does not prove that rates drove the shares, particularly without a benchmark and dividend treatment.
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