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The Finance Base
India

How many people live below the poverty line in India? Why estimates range from 34 million to 373 million

India’s poverty figures depend on the line, year and method. The World Bank’s 2022–23 extreme-poverty rate and NITI Aayog’s 2019–21 MPI measure different populations.

By TheFinanceBase Team 4 min read
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How many people live below the poverty line in India? There is no single answer unless you specify which poverty line, data year and method you mean. The figures of 34 million and 373 million should not be treated as competing estimates using one unchanged definition: the primary sources cited here do not establish where either figure comes from. For context, the World Bank’s June 2025 update reports an extreme-poverty rate of 2.3% for India in 2022–23 under its updated international line; NITI Aayog separately reports that 14.96% of people were multidimensionally poor in 2019–21. Those figures measure different things.

Why there is no single poverty-line count

“Below the poverty line” can refer to several different measures. A monetary poverty line classifies people according to consumption or income against a threshold. An international line is designed to compare poverty across countries, while a country’s own line is generally more relevant to domestic policy and targeting. A multidimensional poverty index instead counts overlapping deprivations in areas such as health, education and living standards.

Changing the threshold changes who is counted. So can the household survey, the period when its data were collected, how consumption is measured, price adjustments, purchasing-power-parity (PPP) conversion and the population denominator. A rate and a headcount are also not interchangeable: a rate is the share of a population meeting a definition, while a headcount is the corresponding number of people for a specified population and year.

What the recent estimates actually measure

The figures below come from different definitions and observation periods, so they should not be read as a direct contest over one poverty count.

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Measure Threshold or definition India estimate Data period and source
International extreme poverty $3.00 per person per day in 2021 PPP dollars; this is an international-dollar threshold, not a rupee amount at the market exchange rate. 2.3% in 2022–23; the World Bank reports this as an MMRP-based rate, not a headcount in this figure. World Bank, June 2025 update; based on Indian household survey data for 2022–23.
Other international comparison lines $4.20 per person per day for the lower-middle-income line and $8.30 for the upper-middle-income line, both in 2021 PPP dollars. India rates for these lines are not stated in the cited World Bank update summary. Thresholds updated by the World Bank in 2025; no India rate is stated here.
India’s National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) Deprivations across health, education and living standards; not a monetary poverty line. 14.96% in 2019–21, down from 24.85% in 2015–16. NITI Aayog, 2023 review, using NFHS-5 data for 2019–21 and NFHS-4 data for 2015–16.

The World Bank’s June 2025 update also gives an MMRP-based extreme-poverty rate of 16.2% for 2011–12, compared with 2.3% for 2022–23. The Bank says the updated trend reflects new PPPs, revised international poverty lines and new Indian household survey data. Its revised figures therefore should not be spliced casually with older estimates produced under different methods.

What “multidimensionally poor” means

NITI Aayog’s National MPI is not a count of people under an income or consumption threshold. It covers three equally weighted dimensions—health, education and living standards—represented by 12 indicators. Under the Alkire–Foster method used in the report, a person is MPI-poor when their deprivation score is 33.33% or more.

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NITI Aayog estimates that about 135.5 million people escaped multidimensional poverty between 2015–16 and 2019–21, using the projected 2021 population. That is an estimated change in MPI poverty, not a monetary-poverty headcount or a number of people who crossed an income line. The report was published in 2023, but its underlying survey periods are 2015–16 and 2019–21.

Why the 34 million and 373 million figures cannot be reconciled here

The cited primary sources do not verify the original source, threshold, data year or calculation behind either 34 million or 373 million. Without that information, it is not possible to say which measure each figure uses—or whether they are comparable at all. One might refer to a narrow international extreme-poverty threshold and another to a broader national, international or multidimensional definition, but assigning either number to one of those measures without its source would be speculation.

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To assess either figure, look for four details alongside the number: the poverty definition and threshold; the survey and reference year; the method used to measure consumption or deprivation; and whether the result is a rate, a headcount or a change over time. A headline number without those details can make unlike estimates look contradictory.

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How India’s domestic poverty measure differs

India’s historical Tendulkar Expert Group approach to monetary poverty used private household consumer expenditure collected through the National Sample Survey system. That method is distinct from the World Bank’s current international-dollar thresholds and from NITI Aayog’s multidimensional index. A figure based on one should not be relabelled as a result from another.

The World Bank distinguishes the roles of the two monetary approaches: national poverty lines are more appropriate for domestic policy dialogue and targeting within a country, while international lines provide a common yardstick for cross-country comparisons. The threshold is part of the answer, not a technical footnote.

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How to state an India poverty figure accurately

  • Name the measure: for example, World Bank international extreme poverty or NITI Aayog National MPI.
  • Give the threshold or definition, including the PPP vintage when quoting an international-dollar line.
  • State the observation period, rather than substituting the report’s publication year for the survey years.
  • Label the result as a rate, headcount or change in headcount; do not convert a rate into a number of people without an explicit population denominator and reference year.

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