First Trust’s S&P 500 history puts the average bear-market phase at 11.1 months—about 338 days, often rounded to 340. That clock stops at the market’s low, not when the index regains its former high. The figure offers historical context, not a timetable for the next downturn or a promise of a quick recovery.
What does the 340-day average count?
First Trust calculates an average bear-market period of 11.1 months using daily S&P 500 total-return data from April 29, 1942, through September 30, 2026. In its chart, a bear period begins when the index closes at least 20% below its previous high and ends at the subsequent lowest close. Eleven-point-one months converts to roughly 338 days, which explains the common rounded figure of 340. First Trust’s chart and methodology
The endpoint matters: this is the time from the qualifying decline to the trough. It does not include the potentially longer climb back to the prior high. So the average does not mean investors typically break even 340 days after a bear market begins.
Why do other sources give longer averages?
Historical averages depend on the years included, the return series, and what counts as the end of a bear market. First Trust’s series starts in 1942 and measures to the trough. Longer histories include earlier episodes, including the severe downturns of the 1930s and early 1940s.
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| Source and sample | Average time to trough | Recovery to prior high | What the figure measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Trust, April 29, 1942–September 30, 2026; daily S&P 500 total returns | 11.1 months (about 338 days; commonly rounded to 340) | Not stated in the cited chart | From a close at least 20% below the prior high to the subsequent lowest close. First Trust |
| J.P. Morgan Asset Management, bear markets since 1929; data as of April 11, 2025 | 18 months | 39 months on average | Reports bear-market duration and recovery separately. J.P. Morgan |
| S&P Dow Jones Indices historical figures since 1929, as reported by the Associated Press in April 2025 | Nearly 19 months | Not stated in the cited AP report | Reports average time to trough and an average decline of 38.5%. Associated Press |
These are different samples and reported measures, not three estimates of an identical period. A price-only series and a total-return series can also differ because total return includes reinvested dividends. The cited figures do not provide a comparable median, so none should be read as the duration a typical future bear market is likely to have.
What is the “good news” in the historical comparison?
In First Trust’s same 1942–September 2026 analysis, average bull periods lasted 4.4 years and produced an average cumulative total return of 153.1%; bear periods averaged 11.1 months and an average cumulative loss of 31.7%. This is a comparison of historical averages over that source’s chosen sample, not a prediction of the length, depth, or outcome of the next market cycle. First Trust
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Longer bull periods help explain why a shorter average bear phase can be encouraging as perspective: historically, growth periods have lasted much longer on average than declines. But an average cannot say whether a particular downturn is nearly over, how far prices may fall, or how long recovery will take.
Why can bear markets behave so differently?
J.P. Morgan’s classification of bear markets since 1929 illustrates how much cause can matter. As of April 11, 2025, its average durations were 32 months for structural bear markets, 17 months for cyclical bear markets, and 6 months for event-driven bear markets. These are categories in J.P. Morgan’s framework, not universal labels or a forecast for a current decline. The firm notes that causes and recovery speeds differ. J.P. Morgan Asset Management
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Does 340 days mean stocks will bounce back in about a year?
No. The 340-day shorthand ends at the trough, and it is an average from a defined historical sample. It neither predicts when a future market will bottom nor measures the time to recover the prior peak. Even the separate 39-month recovery average in J.P. Morgan’s since-1929 chart describes that historical sample, not a schedule investors can rely on.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Is a bear market a good time to invest?
A historical duration average cannot tell an individual investor when to buy or sell. Whether investing during a decline fits depends on factors such as time horizon, ability to tolerate losses, liquidity needs, and the risk of needing to sell before a recovery. Market timing is uncertain; J.P. Morgan warns against treating historical patterns as a reliable timing signal. First Trust also notes that past performance does not guarantee future results, that different date ranges produce different results, and that an index itself is not directly investable. These figures are general market context, not individualized financial advice.
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How to read a bear-market statistic
- Check the sample: note the start and end dates, since adding earlier market episodes can shift an average.
- Check the series: determine whether the data track prices or total returns, including dividends.
- Check the endpoint: distinguish time to the low from time to regain the previous high.
- Check the summary: an arithmetic average is not a forecast, and the cited charts do not give a directly comparable median.
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