Ukraine is a major supplier to global markets for cereals and sunflower products, but its importance is concentrated in those tradable commodities and the routes that carry them—not captured by one reliable share of “global agriculture.” FAO forecasts about 40 million tonnes of Ukrainian cereal exports in the July 2025–June 2026 marketing year, while war-related risks continue to constrain production and trade. The impact reaches beyond how much Ukraine harvests: buyers may switch suppliers, and transport and insurance costs can change too.
How much grain is Ukraine expected to produce and export?
FAO estimates Ukraine’s 2025 cereal production at about 60.8 million tonnes: roughly 6% below its five-year average, but 8% above 2024. It forecasts cereal exports of about 40 million tonnes in MY2025/26—around 20% below the previous year. The harvest and export figures measure different things: production is not the same as the amount available to ship abroad.
| Crop | FAO estimate of 2025 production | FAO forecast of MY2025/26 exports |
|---|---|---|
| Maize (corn) | 30.7 million tonnes | 23 million tonnes |
| Wheat | 23.3 million tonnes | 14 million tonnes |
| Barley | 5.2 million tonnes | 2.5 million tonnes |
| All cereals | 60.8 million tonnes | About 40 million tonnes |
Production figures are FAO estimates for calendar 2025; export figures are FAO forecasts for the July 2025–June 2026 marketing year. Figures are rounded, so crop rows may not sum exactly to the reported cereal total. FAO attributes the lower export outlook to abundant global supplies and low international prices, as well as war-related constraints on transport and storage. FAO GIEWS country brief on Ukraine
Why other current estimates should not be combined with FAO’s
A November 21, 2025 USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report estimated MY2025/26 wheat production at 22.8 million tonnes and barley at 5.4 million tonnes for government-controlled areas, and estimated corn production at 31.0 million tonnes. USDA says the estimates may change when final State Statistics Service of Ukraine data become available; its PSD tables also include estimates for Crimea. These figures differ from FAO’s in publisher, timing, method and geographic treatment, so they are not interchangeable. USDA FAS Kyiv, Grain and Feed Quarterly: Ukraine
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Which commodities make Ukraine matter?
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine was a top-five exporter of barley, corn, wheat and sunflower seed, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service. That is historical context, not a current-season ranking. Today’s export forecast still points to sizeable cereal shipments, while sunflower products are especially important to Ukraine’s export earnings.
Cereals
- Wheat: FAO forecasts 14 million tonnes of Ukrainian exports in MY2025/26. Wheat matters to international buyers, but the historical top-five ranking should not be mistaken for a current ranking.
- Maize: FAO forecasts 23 million tonnes of exports in MY2025/26, making it the largest cereal export volume in that forecast.
- Barley: FAO forecasts 2.5 million tonnes of exports in MY2025/26. USDA ERS’s historical account also identifies China as an important buyer before the war.
Sunflower oil and other agricultural exports
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported that agricultural products made up 59% of the country’s total exports in 2024, worth USD 24.5 billion. The ministry described that value as the prewar export level and compared it with USD 27.7 billion in 2021; these are the ministry’s reported values, not an independently harmonized, constant-price comparison.
Rank #2
| Product exported in 2024 | Export volume reported by Ukraine’s ministry | Export value reported by Ukraine’s ministry | Share of agricultural export value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | Almost 6 million tonnes | USD 5.1 billion | 21% |
| Corn | 29.6 million tonnes | USD 5 billion | 21% |
| Wheat | 20.6 million tonnes | USD 3.7 billion | 15% |
These are Ukraine’s calendar-year 2024 export totals and values, and the percentages are shares of Ukrainian agricultural export value—not shares of world trade. Sunflower oil is a processed product, so it should not be conflated with sunflower seed exports. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, January 3, 2025
Why do export routes matter as much as the harvest?
Before the full-scale war, more than 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural products were exported through seaports, according to USDA ERS. The blockade of Black Sea ports trapped grain and oilseed products. The Black Sea Grain Initiative enabled exports through three ports beginning in 2022; after Russia withdrew in July 2023, Ukraine expanded river shipments and established a new Black Sea corridor.
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War affects the supply chain before and after crops leave the field. FAO cites limits on field access and labor, war hazards, production costs, transport and storage. USDA ERS also reports that above-normal transaction costs—including insurance premiums for war-related risk—contributed to low prices received by Ukrainian grain and oilseed producers. That is a specific market-channel finding, not evidence that costs or prices move identically for every crop or in every year.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How does a disruption in Ukraine reach other agricultural markets?
When Ukrainian shipments are limited, buyers can source from other exporters, draw on domestic production, or adjust consumption. Those responses mean a missing tonne of Ukrainian supply does not translate mechanically into the same amount less food available worldwide. But substitution can shift trade flows, freight demand and competition among suppliers, with effects that vary by crop and destination.
- Indonesia turned to Australia and Canada for wheat when Ukrainian supplies were limited.
- China increasingly sourced corn from Brazil.
- India bought sunflower oil from Argentina, the European Union and Russia.
These examples, documented by USDA ERS, show why a trade disruption can affect different markets in different ways. They do not establish a single, uniform price effect for all importing countries.
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What Ukraine’s importance does—and does not—say about prices
Ukraine is important enough that disruptions to its exports can require buyers to find alternative origins and routes. But it does not determine world food or commodity prices by itself: prices also reflect other supply and demand conditions, weather, input costs and policy, as USDA ERS notes.
FAO reports that wheat export prices declined about 7% between April 2025 and January 2026 and remained 5% below the prior year. Those are FAO’s reported movements for that period, not a universal measure of global food prices or proof that Ukraine’s exports caused the change. For a specific market, commodity and marketing year, a reliable comparison needs consistent data on export volumes, destinations and prices; a single current global export-market share for each crop is not established by the figures above.
USDA ERS, Agricultural Markets in Russia and Ukraine summarizes the broader context: “Russia and Ukraine are significant producers and exporters of several commodities including wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and fertilizer.” The significance of Ukraine is clearest in these traded commodities and their supply chains—not in an undifferentiated share of global agriculture.
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