AI data centers are competing for more of the memory and storage components that device makers also need, putting upward pressure on costs for PCs and phones. That pressure can reach shoppers through higher prices, less RAM or storage in a given model, or fewer low-cost choices—but it does not mean every device will rise in price by the same amount. Gartner’s 2026 figures are forecasts of broad market changes, not guaranteed price increases for a specific model or country.
Why AI data centers affect memory used in consumer devices
AI accelerators rely on high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, a specialized product designed to move data quickly. A laptop’s RAM and a phone’s memory are not simply the same finished product as HBM. The connection is upstream: suppliers make decisions about capacity, investment and allocation across product lines, while AI servers also increase demand directly for server DRAM and enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs). When suppliers direct more resources toward higher-margin server products, consumer-device makers can face tighter availability and higher component costs.
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It helps to separate the two main memory technologies. DRAM is working memory: it holds information a PC or phone is actively using. NAND flash is nonvolatile storage, used in products such as SSDs and in phone storage. More server demand can affect both markets, but a change in DRAM pricing is not the same thing as a change in NAND pricing. TrendForce has reported tight allocations and upward contract-price pressure for PC and mobile DRAM, as well as rising NAND prices and PC brands trimming SSD capacity in some mainstream products.
Contract prices are prices negotiated between suppliers and customers such as device manufacturers; they are not retail prices paid directly by consumers. They matter because memory and storage are part of a device’s bill of materials, but there are several steps between a supplier contract and a shop price. A manufacturer may pass some of a cost increase to buyers, absorb some of it, renegotiate supply, use inventory bought earlier, or change a model’s configuration. Retailers, regional taxes, currency movements and local competition also influence the final price.
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What the published forecasts say—and what they do not
Gartner’s 2026 forecast and TrendForce’s 2026 outlook describe a significant cost squeeze, but their figures measure different things. The table identifies the publisher, comparison period and forecast status so that component-price estimates are not mistaken for guaranteed changes in a device’s sticker price.
| Measure | Forecast | What it refers to |
|---|---|---|
| DRAM and SSD prices | 130% combined increase by year-end 2026 compared with 2025 | Gartner’s 2026 forecast for combined DRAM and SSD prices; this is a component-market forecast, not a 130% increase in PC or phone retail prices. |
| PC prices | 17% increase by year-end 2026 compared with 2025 | Gartner’s forecast for PC prices overall, not a promise about each model, retailer or country. |
| Smartphone prices | 13% increase by year-end 2026 compared with 2025 | Gartner’s forecast for smartphone prices overall, not a model-level quote. |
| Worldwide PC shipments | 10.4% decline in 2026 versus 2025 | Gartner’s forecast of unit shipments, not the price change of an individual PC. |
| Worldwide smartphone shipments | 8.4% decline in 2026 versus 2025 | Gartner’s forecast of unit shipments, not a measured change in buyer behavior. |
| Conventional DRAM contract prices | 10–15% increase quarter over quarter in 4Q26 | TrendForce’s outlook published September 30, 2026; this is a forecast for supplier contract prices. |
| NAND Flash contract prices | 15–20% increase quarter over quarter in 4Q26 | TrendForce’s outlook published September 30, 2026; this is a forecast for supplier contract prices. |
TrendForce’s earlier March 2026 outlook projected quarter-over-quarter increases of 58–63% for conventional DRAM and 70–75% for NAND Flash in 2Q26. Those were forecasts made at that time, not the latest-quarter estimates; the September outlook gives the later 4Q26 ranges shown above. The changes between outlooks are a reminder that component forecasts are time-sensitive.
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Gartner also forecast a 10.4% fall in worldwide PC shipments and an 8.4% fall in worldwide smartphone shipments for 2026 versus 2025. Its Senior Director Analyst Ranjit Atwal attributed contraction and delayed upgrades to higher memory costs, saying, “This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.” These are Gartner’s projections; they do not establish that shipments have already fallen by those amounts or explain the experience of every market.
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Device companies do not have equal room to absorb higher component costs. A premium phone or PC may have higher margins, giving its maker more flexibility to absorb some added expense or preserve the specification. Entry-level devices generally have less margin room, and their customers are often more sensitive to a price increase. That makes a low-cost model more exposed to a change in price, specification or availability, although the exact response depends on the manufacturer and product.
Gartner projected that basic-smartphone buyers would exit the market five times faster than premium buyers in 2026. This is a forecast, not a measured rate of people leaving the market. Gartner also expects some shoppers to keep devices longer or consider refurbished and second-hand phones. In a separate projection, Atwal said, “The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028.” That statement describes Gartner’s expected direction for the segment; it is not an established outcome or a guarantee that no PC priced below $500 will be sold after that date.
For PC buyers, a lower-cost model may also change without an obvious headline price jump. TrendForce’s September outlook says PC brands are reducing SSD capacities in mainstream products to lower bill-of-material costs. A shopper could therefore encounter less storage in a new configuration, a higher price for a configuration comparable to an older one, or both. A listed model name alone may not tell you whether the included memory and storage match a previous version; check the exact configuration.
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How to compare devices when memory costs are moving
Compare the complete configuration and the likely ownership cost, not just the advertised starting price. The price forecast is broad, so it cannot tell you whether a particular device in your area is about to become more expensive. These checks are more useful than applying a market percentage to a local listing.
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- Compare like with like. Check included RAM and storage on the exact model and configuration. A cheaper listing may have less storage or memory than a similarly named device.
- Look at the tier and trade-off. Decide whether an entry-level configuration still meets your needs or whether a more capable model is worth its cost. Do not assume that a premium model will avoid every price change; the margin distinction describes flexibility, not immunity.
- Check upgradeability before valuing an upgrade. Some laptops allow compatible memory or an SSD to be replaced or added; many do not. Verify the manufacturer’s specifications for the exact model and configuration before counting on an upgrade. A DDR5 SODIMM kit or an M.2 NVMe SSD is relevant only when the laptop supports that part and installation path.
- Compare upgrade cost with replacement cost. An upgrade can extend the useful life of a compatible PC, but the available forecasts do not establish that upgrading will be cheaper than buying a new machine. Include the part, any installation cost, and the capacity you actually need in the comparison.
- Consider whether a replacement is necessary now. If the existing phone or PC still meets your needs, keeping it longer avoids a purchase at today’s price. If you do need a replacement, compare current local offers and complete specifications rather than treating a global forecast as a quote.
- For phones, include refurbished options if appropriate. Gartner expects some buyers to consider refurbished and second-hand devices. Check condition, battery health, software-support status, return rights and warranty terms for the specific seller and device.
A practical buy-now, wait-or-upgrade decision
There is no forecast-based rule that everyone should buy immediately or postpone a purchase. A decision is more defensible when it starts with the device’s job and the cost of waiting, then accounts for configuration and replacement options.
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- Write down what the device must do. Identify the applications, storage needs and expected service life. This prevents a lower advertised price from winning when its configuration is inadequate.
- Check the current specification and price. Record the exact RAM, storage, model identifier and local price. For a phone, note the storage tier; for a PC, distinguish RAM from the SSD capacity.
- Inspect the device you own. If it is still reliable and meets the need, compare the cost of keeping it with replacement. If it is a laptop, check manufacturer documentation for upgrade support before considering extra RAM or storage.
- Compare realistic alternatives. Include a new device with the required configuration, a compatible upgrade where possible, and a refurbished option where suitable. Use current prices and terms from the seller rather than inferring them from Gartner’s global projections.
- Buy when the need outweighs the cost of waiting. A work or accessibility requirement, a failing device, or a configuration that no longer supports essential tasks can justify replacing it even during a period of component inflation. Otherwise, delaying can preserve cash, but it does not guarantee a lower future price or the continued availability of a particular configuration.
In the first half of 2026, Gartner described a critical period for device vendors and channels to adjust pricing and protect margins before component inflation further compresses profitability from the second quarter onward. That timing comment concerns vendor decisions, not a universal deadline for shoppers. It is not evidence that prices changed on one date across all brands or regions.
What remains uncertain for an individual shopper
Neither a global price forecast nor a component contract outlook supplies a guaranteed increase for every PC or phone. The cited forecasts do not provide current retail prices by country and model, nor do they establish how much of any component increase a particular manufacturer will pass through. A local price can differ because the device’s configuration, inventory, retailer, taxes and market conditions differ.
Category labels also matter when interpreting the figures. Gartner’s combined DRAM-and-SSD estimate is not interchangeable with TrendForce’s separate conventional DRAM and NAND Flash contract-price ranges. Nor should server HBM be treated as a direct component in an ordinary laptop or phone: the consumer impact described here comes through supplier capacity and allocation, alongside demand for server DRAM and enterprise storage.
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