The Tool Desk
Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →On November 4, 2024, PredictIt briefly showed Kamala Harris narrowly ahead of Donald Trump, at 51% to 49%. But that was not the picture across prediction markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, Smarkets and Betfair still favored Trump in the figures Forbes Australia reported that day. The headline described a difference between platforms—not a consensus forecast or the election result.
Which market had Harris ahead?
PredictIt showed Harris at 51% and Trump at 49% in Forbes Australia’s November 4, 2024 report. The article described this as Harris’s first lead on PredictIt since October 9. It was a snapshot reported on the eve of the U.S. presidential election, not a current odds quote.
Why did Trump remain favored elsewhere?
Each platform reflected its own market, and their reported prices did not match. Forbes Australia gave these November 4, 2024 figures:
| Platform or measure | Reported figures | Who was favored |
|---|---|---|
| PredictIt | Harris 51%; Trump 49% | Harris |
| Polymarket | Trump 59.5%; Harris 40.6% | Trump |
| Kalshi | Trump 56%; Harris 44% | Trump |
| Smarkets | Trump 58.2%; Harris 40.9% | Trump |
| Betfair | Trump at nearly 60% | Trump |
The reported percentages do not always total exactly 100%, and they should be read as the figures the article gave rather than adjusted figures. A separate Election Betting Odds tracker measure in the report said Trump’s odds had fallen 4.1% to a seven-day low of 56.3%; that tracker figure is distinct from the platform snapshots above.
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How were the market odds different from model forecasts?
Forbes also described estimates from two poll-based models. They were not betting-market prices:
- FiveThirtyEight: Harris 49%, Trump 50%, described as an implied result from 100 election simulations.
- The Economist: Harris 52%, Trump 48%, also described in terms of 100 simulations.
These model estimates and market prices answer related but different questions. The markets reflected prices on named platforms; the model percentages summarized forecasts based on polling and simulations. The reported numbers should not be averaged into a single “consensus” probability.
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What could betting odds tell readers—and what could they not?
The Forbes report said some experts viewed betting markets as an indicator of the outcome, while others questioned how predictive they were. It attributed to Nate Silver, described in the article as a Polymarket analyst and pollster, the observation that individual traders likely leaned right politically, potentially skewing odds toward Trump. That caveat does not establish that a particular market was manipulated or that political leaning caused a specific price.
Most importantly, odds were probabilities attached to a particular date and market—not votes cast, a guarantee, or the final election result. Forbes’s November 4, 2024 article also reported that Robinhood and Interactive Brokers had launched election betting platforms and that Kalshi had received federal preemption to allow election betting in the U.S. Those are historical statements from that report, not confirmation of present-day availability, platform terms, or law.
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Source and date
The figures and historical context here come from Ty Roush’s Forbes Australia report, published November 4, 2024: “Harris retakes election odds lead with betting market—as Trump remains favourite.” Its opening summary said that Harris’s odds had overtaken Trump’s on one betting site “for the first time in nearly a month,” while polls indicated a practically tied race. That language described the report’s moment in time, not a present-day assessment.
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