Global cereal production is forecast to ease from its 2025 record in 2026, while stocks remain substantial and the stocks-to-use ratio edges lower. Forecast cereal trade is also down, partly because Black Sea shipping constraints are limiting export prospects. Oilseed markets are less uniform: FAO expects record soybean production for 2025/26, but global vegetable-oil consumption is forecast to exceed production.
What “Rest-of-the-World” means in this outlook
The title does not specify which countries belong in a “Rest-of-the-World” group, and the available official figures do not provide a matching country-group total. This article therefore uses selected global market indicators rather than treating the title as an exhaustive country-by-country survey. The figures below describe global balances; they should not be read as estimates for a residual group of countries.
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The latest global cereal reference available by October 8, 2026 is the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released October 2, 2026. Its 2026 production estimates and 2026/27 balance forecasts are provisional outlook figures, subject to revision as weather, trade and logistics conditions change.
How are global grain supplies looking?
FAO’s October brief puts global cereal production in 2026 at 2,979 million tonnes, 2.1% below the previous year’s all-time high but still the second-largest harvest on record. The total changed little from September: a better wheat outlook offset weaker expectations for coarse grains.
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| Measure | FAO forecast | Period and context |
|---|---|---|
| World cereal production | 2,979 million tonnes | 2026; 2.1% below the 2025 record and the second-largest harvest on record |
| Wheat production | 813.9 million tonnes | 2026; 3.3% below the previous year and 3.2 million tonnes above FAO’s September estimate |
| Coarse-grain production | 1,612 million tonnes | 2026; 1.3% below the previous year, mainly because of lower maize prospects |
| Rice production | 552.5 million tonnes | 2026/27; milled basis, 2.4% below the 2025/26 record |
| Cereal utilization | 2,966 million tonnes | 2026/27; 0.1% above the previous year |
| Cereal stocks | 950 million tonnes | Forecast at the close of seasons in 2027 |
| Stocks-to-use ratio | 31.7% | Forecast at the end of 2026/27, down from 32.0% in the previous season |
For wheat, improved weather in Australia during July and August raised yield expectations, but FAO still forecast below-average yields. Below-average late-season rainfall remained a downside risk. In coarse grains, lower maize prospects were the main drag, partly offset by improved Australian barley prospects. FAO expected higher coarse-grain and rice use to more than offset lower wheat use in 2026/27.
The stocks forecast is a substantial buffer, not proof that every market or importing country is protected from disruption. The modestly lower stocks-to-use ratio means projected stocks are slightly smaller relative to expected use than in the prior season; it does not, by itself, establish either a shortage or unlimited resilience.
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Why is forecast grain trade falling while production remains high?
FAO forecast world cereal trade at 505.8 million tonnes for the July–June 2026/27 season, 18.3 million tonnes (3.5%) below the previous season. The October estimate was also 3.5 million tonnes lower than FAO’s September forecast. The production total remains historically large, but output alone does not determine how much grain can be exported: exportable supplies, transport capacity and the ability to move cargoes to port also matter.
FAO attributed the latest trade reduction mainly to constrained Black Sea shipping routes and a lack of sufficient alternative transport capacity. Those constraints weighed on projected wheat and maize exports. They illustrate why a high global harvest can coexist with reduced trade forecasts: grain that is produced may not be available to buyers on the expected schedule or through the expected routes.
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- Maize: Export prospects were lowered for the European Union because of lower supplies and for Ukraine because of logistical constraints.
- Wheat: Higher export expectations for Kazakhstan were more than offset by lower projected shipments from Russia and Ukraine.
- Barley: Higher Australian exportable supplies lifted trade expectations, with much of the additional barley expected to go to China.
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero summarized the wider risk picture: “Agrifood systems appear robust at a production level, but risks are growing and many of them have the potential to have rapid and adverse effects for global supply and access.”
What is different about the soybean and vegetable-oil outlook?
The soybean estimate comes from a separate FAO publication and forecast vintage, not the October cereal brief. In its June 18, 2026 Food Outlook, FAO forecast record global soybean production of 432.3 million tonnes for 2025/26. Expected growth in Brazil and the Russian Federation was projected to more than offset reductions in Argentina, India and North America.
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A record soybean crop does not mean all oilseed products are equally abundant. The same outlook expected global vegetable-oil consumption to exceed production in 2025/26, with ending stocks declining for a third consecutive season. Soybean production and the balance for vegetable oils describe different parts of the market and should not be treated as interchangeable measures of supply.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What do the latest oilseed price signals show?
FAO’s September 10, 2026 Oilcrops Price Indices update reports price movements observed in August, not October prices. The oilseed index rose 3.2% month over month, the oilmeal index rose 7.6%, and the vegetable-oil index rose 0.6%. All three remained above their year-earlier levels.
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- Soybean and rapeseed prices increased. Soybean quotations reached their highest level since early 2024 amid concerns about U.S. growing conditions, firm crushing activity and renewed Chinese import demand.
- Sunflower seed prices were broadly unchanged.
- Palm and soy oil prices rose, while sunflower and rapeseed oil quotations eased amid subdued import demand and expectations of ample supplies in 2026/27.
The different directions within the oilseed complex matter: prices for seed, meal and oils can respond to different supply, processing and demand conditions. The August index changes are market signals for that month, not a guarantee of how prices will move in later months.
Which wider risks could change these forecasts?
Weather, logistics, trade policy and input costs can all alter production or the amount of supply that reaches buyers. FAO’s June 2026 Food Outlook reported that global fertilizer trade volumes fell 20% to 25% in January–April 2026 compared with the same months a year earlier. The report highlighted concerns for the 2026/27 season, particularly for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. That is a dated input-market signal; it does not establish a specific resulting change in crop yields or output.
The June outlook also identified exposure to weather risks, including El Niño, energy and fertilizer price volatility associated with conflict, geopolitical tensions, uncertain trade policy and macroeconomic headwinds. These are reasons to treat balance forecasts as revisable, not as settled outcomes.
For a recurring oilseed balance report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service describes Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade as covering global production, trade, consumption and stocks across oilseeds, meals and oils. Its July 10, 2026 release was the latest such release surfaced by October 8. USDA’s data page listed October 9 reports as upcoming; those later reports are outside this outlook’s date cutoff.
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