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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Gold rose in early trading on October 5, 2026, after weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data reduced market-implied expectations of an October Federal Reserve rate hike. Reuters reported spot gold up 0.4% to $4,158.17 an ounce and December U.S. gold futures up 0.6% to $4,186.40 by 0150 GMT. Those were intraday quotes, not closing prices.
Gold prices in the October 5 snapshot
Reuters reported these prices at 0150 GMT on October 5, 2026:
| Instrument | Reported price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold | $4,158.17 per ounce | Up 0.4% |
| December-delivery U.S. gold futures | $4,186.40 | Up 0.6% |
Spot gold and a futures contract are different instruments, so their quoted prices and percentage moves should not be read as interchangeable. Both figures are early-session observations, not final prices for the day. Reuters reported the price snapshot and market context.
Why gold rose
Reuters attributed support for gold to softer U.S. labor-market data. September job growth slowed more than expected, and payroll counts for the prior two months were revised sharply lower, according to the report. The data reduced traders’ expectations of an October rate increase, helping gold, which does not pay interest, look relatively more attractive when expected rates fall.
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This was a reported near-term catalyst, not proof that rate expectations were the only reason gold moved. Reuters also identified Middle East developments involving Yemen and the Iran war, oil prices, and possible inflation effects as factors that could influence gold.
What traders were pricing for Fed hikes
As reported by Reuters from CME FedWatch, traders assigned a 22% probability to an October rate hike, down from 64% a week earlier. They still priced an 87% chance of a December increase. These are futures-implied market probabilities at a particular time, not decisions or promises by the Federal Reserve.
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| Potential meeting | Market-implied chance of a hike | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 22%, down from 64% a week earlier, as reported October 5 by Reuters | A sharply lower market-implied chance in that snapshot |
| December 2026 | 87%, as reported October 5 by Reuters | Traders still priced a high chance of an increase later in the year |
CME Group’s October 2 recap put the October probability at roughly 25%. That earlier figure is a separate measurement, not a contradiction: market pricing can change over a few days. CME FedWatch translates futures pricing into implied probabilities; the Fed itself determines policy at its meetings.
How this compares with the Fed’s own projections
The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showed a median federal funds rate projection of 4.1% at the end of 2026. The Fed describes these figures as participants’ assessments of the appropriate policy rate, not predictions of the most likely outcome. The median therefore does not promise a hike in October or December. The Fed’s September 2026 projections were released with its September 16 statement.
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The next FOMC meeting was scheduled for October 27–28, 2026, according to the Federal Reserve’s meeting calendar. Traders’ probabilities can shift ahead of that meeting as data and policy signals change; only the Fed’s announcement establishes its decision.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could move gold next
Rate expectations matter because interest-bearing assets may become more attractive relative to gold when yields rise. But the outlook is not determined by the October probability alone. Reuters quoted Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, saying: “The softer labour market data has helped dial back October Fed hike expectations, which is providing gold some support. But the market is still treating the Fed’s broader hiking cycle as intact even if a pause occurs in October,”
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Waterer also pointed to Middle East developments and oil prices as relevant through their possible effects on inflation, and said volatility could remain elevated while oil, yields, and Fed expectations move. Geopolitical events, inflation expectations, yields, and policy pricing can therefore pull gold in different directions.
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