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There is no single, reliable forecast of what the world will look like in 2045. Long-range trend reports and scenarios are better read as tools for testing decisions under uncertainty. The OECD’s 2023 regional outlook, for example, explores three possible futures for OECD regions—not three predictions for the entire world.
What “global trends 2045” can—and cannot—tell you
Long-range foresight starts with forces that are already changing societies, then asks how they might interact with institutions, local conditions and unexpected events. A trend is not a guaranteed outcome: policy choices and collective action can alter its course and determine who experiences its costs or benefits.
The UK Ministry of Defence’s fifth Global Strategic Trends edition, published on 30 June 2014, looked ahead to 2045 from a defence and security perspective. The ministry cautioned that the work “does not predict the future.” Its analysis should not be treated as a comprehensive outlook for households, markets or every region, and the publication says its findings do not necessarily represent official UK government or Ministry of Defence positions.
A different example is the OECD’s 2023 Regional Outlook. It examines megatrends and develops alternative scenarios for OECD regions. Those scenarios are useful for considering how regional governance and cooperation might evolve, but they are not a forecast for the whole world.
Which forces could shape regions by 2045?
The OECD identifies demographic change, including migration; economic interconnectedness; climate change; digitalisation; and urbanisation as megatrends with long-term effects. Their impacts are likely to vary by place rather than arrive evenly or independently.
- Demographic change: Population ageing and decline can create particular challenges for remote and rural areas.
- Digitalisation: Digital divides can leave some places with fewer opportunities to benefit from technological change.
- Economic interconnectedness: Regions differ in their exposure to global value chains, which can produce unequal opportunities and vulnerabilities.
- Climate change and urbanisation: These are among the forces the OECD identifies as shaping regional needs and development over the long term.
The UK defence-oriented analysis names a related, but not identical, set of pressures: climate change, global inequality, population growth, resource scarcity and shifting global power. It emphasizes both uncertainty and the possibility that collective action can overcome some challenges; it also warns that states prioritising their own interests may add to instability and tension. These lists reflect different analytical purposes, not a ranked or exhaustive consensus forecast.
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Three OECD scenarios for regional futures
The OECD’s 2023 scenarios contrast how authority and cooperation might be organised across national and regional government. They are alternatives designed to prompt reflection and inform planning—not predictions about which future will happen.
| Scenario | How decisions are organised | Participation and regional implications |
|---|---|---|
| Foregone region | Decision-making is centralised nationally. | Citizen involvement declines and trust erodes; top-down responses can deepen uneven impacts between regions. |
| Hyper-connected region | National and regional authorities collaborate. | Citizens participate in solutions. The scenario explores the potential and tensions of coordinated, networked action; connection alone does not guarantee that regional disparities will be solved. |
| Region-state | Regions become more autonomous and pursue different economic and social models. | Greater regional competition over wealth and resources is a defining risk. |
How to compare the futures
For a practical comparison, focus less on guessing which scenario is most likely and more on the choices and vulnerabilities each one reveals. The OECD’s regional lens suggests asking:
- Who has authority to make decisions, and how do national and regional institutions coordinate?
- How much influence do residents have over decisions that affect their communities?
- How are gains, risks and resources distributed between places?
- Can institutions prepare for shocks and recover when they occur?
These questions can also help a personal-finance reader keep long-range trends in perspective. The scenarios are not a basis for predicting investment returns, job prospects or the future cost of living in a particular place. They can instead remind readers that long-term conditions are uncertain and uneven, so a single confident forecast should not be mistaken for a dependable plan.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What foresight can contribute to planning
The OECD points to strategic fiscal planning, robust governance and stronger foresight capacity as ways to build regional resilience amid uncertain futures. Scenario analysis helps institutions test whether today’s choices remain workable across different conditions; it cannot remove uncertainty or identify one certain outcome.
Keep the scope attached to each source: the Ministry of Defence work is defence-oriented and dates to 2014; the OECD scenarios concern OECD regions and were published in 2023. A 2025 secondary publication also refers to a National Intelligence Council report titled Global Trends 2045: A More Contested World, but its detailed contents are not established here and should not be treated as verified findings.
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