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When did this bull market start, and how much has the S&P 500 gained?
Reuters dates the current bull market to October 12, 2022, the S&P 500’s closing low for the cycle. Its report, published October 9, 2026, said the index had risen 117% since that low and was near record highs. That figure is the reported gain through the date of the article, not a return guaranteed to continue.
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There is no single universally applied definition of a bull market. A common convention is a rise of at least 20% after a decline of at least 20% from a peak. Reuters used the October 2022 closing low to mark this cycle’s beginning.
What has driven the rally?
AI investment and expectations for earnings
Companies building AI capacity have spent heavily on data centers and related infrastructure. Reuters reported that this investment has contributed to corporate profits and economic growth, and that hyperscaler data-center capital spending was expected to support S&P 500 earnings growth of more than 35% “this year.” The report’s phrasing does not establish a longer-term annual forecast; the figure should be understood in the context of its October 2026 publication.
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Oxford Economics estimated that about one-third of recent U.S. economic growth stemmed from AI. As described by Reuters, that estimate includes both direct infrastructure investment and a wealth effect from stock-market gains. It is an attributed estimate, not proof that AI alone caused that share of growth.
Corporate profits and investor optimism
Strong corporate profit growth has helped support stock prices. Investors have also valued the prospect that AI could lift productivity and future earnings. Those expectations can sustain a rally, but they are not the same as realized profits: companies must ultimately demonstrate that returns justify the scale of their spending.
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Why do some investors think the bull market has room to run?
Four years by itself is not a reliable countdown to a market reversal. Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief market strategist, told Reuters: “Four years is not, by any stretch of the imagination, scary with regards to a bull market.” He added, “They don’t end of old age; they end from disease.” In other words, the relevant question is whether economic or financial conditions deteriorate, not simply how long the advance has lasted.
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The bullish case in Reuters’ account rests on the index’s proximity to record highs, strong profits, continued AI-related investment and the possibility that technology spending will translate into more growth. Edward Jones was reported as remaining overweight equities, though less aggressively than before. That positioning signals a qualified preference, not a guarantee that stocks will keep rising.
What are the main risks to the rally?
AI spending may not deliver enough profit
Companies can invest enormous sums in data centers without earning returns that match the cost. If expected demand, productivity gains or monetization fail to appear, investors may reassess the valuations of businesses whose share prices depend on AI growth. Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise’s chief market strategist, told Reuters that “the easy money around AI has been made” and that technology companies will face greater pressure to prove current spending translates into profits.
Gains are concentrated in a few companies and sectors
J.P. Morgan Asset Management figures cited by Reuters put the top ten S&P 500 companies at about 40% of the index’s weight, up from about 28% in October 2022. A capitalization-weighted index can rise strongly even when many of its members lag, because its largest constituents have greater influence on its total return. Reuters also reported that only technology and communication services had outperformed the index among its eleven sectors.
This concentration means weakness in a small group of mega-cap stocks could have an outsized effect on the index. Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones’ senior global investment strategist, told Reuters: “The risk of concentration is that if the prevailing theme goes out of favor, portfolios might feel it in an outsized way.”
Higher yields and tighter monetary policy
Higher Treasury yields can make bonds more competitive with stocks and weigh on equity valuations, particularly when stock prices already reflect strong future growth. Interest-rate increases can also slow economic activity. A combination of less supportive financial conditions and weaker earnings would challenge the profit outlook that has underpinned the advance.
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What does “$40 trillion up” mean?
The Reuters report does not provide or define the “$40 trillion up” figure in the assigned headline. It does not establish whether that amount refers to market capitalization, household wealth, a group of assets, or a particular period. It therefore cannot be presented as the amount by which the S&P 500 rose, or as a verified measure of this bull market. The supported figure in Reuters’ account is the index’s 117% gain from its October 12, 2022 closing low through the report dated October 9, 2026.
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