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Forrester forecast in 2022 that the worldwide public-cloud market would exceed $1 trillion by 2026. That was a projection, not a confirmed result: as of October 4, 2026, the available figures do not establish whether the market crossed that threshold under Forrester’s definition.
What Forrester forecast
Forrester’s November 21, 2022 announcement estimated the public-cloud market at $446.4 billion for 2022 and projected it would more than double to exceed $1 trillion by 2026, describing a growth trajectory of more than 20%. These are figures from a forecast published in 2022, not audited historical results. Forrester’s announcement does not, in the public material reviewed, provide a detailed market-sizing methodology.
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Which market segments were included
Forrester’s December 13, 2022 press release identified two large components of its 2026 outlook:
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors| Segment | Forrester’s 2026 forecast, published in 2022 |
|---|---|
| Cloud infrastructure services | Approaching $496 billion |
| Cloud applications | Approaching $397 billion |
Forrester described these as approximate segment estimates, not exact totals. The public release does not establish that these two categories exhaust the overall market, so they should not be added together and treated as a complete or exact $1 trillion accounting. The release also does not provide enough detail to map every included service to a precise definition. Forrester’s press release quotes principal analyst Lee Sustar saying growth would continue but be challenged by competitive pressure and the investments providers would need to make in services and infrastructure.
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Why growth could continue while providers faced pressure
Competition and infrastructure costs
Forrester expected growth to moderate as major providers competed more intensely. The challenge was balancing investment in new services with continued spending on infrastructure. Forrester pointed to analytics, AI and machine learning, databases, development services, and SaaS as areas where hyperscalers sought to differentiate themselves beyond infrastructure that was becoming more commoditized.
New development models and edge computing
Forrester identified serverless development, automation, and low-code integration as supports for infrastructure-related growth. It also said edge-computing vendors could capture a larger share of IT spending relative to cloud. Regulatory and political tensions could fragment the market, complicating providers’ ability to pursue growth across regions.
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Cloud applications and saturation
Forrester described cloud applications as a market approaching saturation, even as hyperscalers worked to improve their SaaS offerings and host SaaS products. The forecast therefore anticipated continued expansion, but not an effortless or uniform rise across every segment.
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What later cloud figures do—and do not—show
Synergy Research Group reported that cloud-infrastructure-services revenue reached $143.4 billion in the second quarter of 2026 and $500 billion on a trailing-12-month basis. Its category includes IaaS, PaaS, and hosted private cloud; public IaaS and PaaS account for most, but not all, of that market. Synergy also reported 47% year-over-year growth in public IaaS and PaaS for the quarter and 43% growth in the broader cloud-infrastructure category. These are strong infrastructure-market indicators, not a like-for-like measurement of Forrester’s total public-cloud market. Synergy’s July 30, 2026 update does not settle the full-year result for Forrester’s different measure.
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Gartner’s June 24, 2026 forecast abstract describes AI demand for high-performance infrastructure as reshaping cloud spending. It says IaaS is leading growth, PaaS is supported by orchestration needs, and SaaS is following a more measured path as businesses optimize applications. The accessible abstract does not disclose a total-market amount, so it cannot confirm whether Forrester’s $1 trillion threshold was reached. Gartner’s forecast abstract is useful for understanding the segment mix, not for validating the overall dollar figure.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Did public cloud actually exceed $1 trillion in 2026?
The figures available as of October 4, 2026 do not establish that outcome on Forrester’s terms. The original $1 trillion figure was a 2022 forecast for the worldwide public-cloud market. The later Synergy data measure cloud infrastructure services, include hosted private cloud, and report quarterly and trailing-12-month revenue rather than a full-year total matching Forrester’s scope. Gartner’s accessible abstract describes segment trends but provides no total-market amount.
A fair comparison between market reports requires checking five things: whether the market is public cloud or a broader infrastructure category; which services are included; whether the period is a forecast, quarter, trailing 12 months, or full year; whether the number is an original projection, revised forecast, or reported estimate; and the currency and dollar basis, if disclosed. The public Forrester announcements cited here do not state enough about methodology or dollar basis to resolve every comparison.
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