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FY27 runs from April 2026 through March 2027. The outlook figures below are forecasts or company commentary unless specifically identified as reported results; they are not completed FY27 earnings.
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What Crisil expects for organised FMCG in FY27
Crisil Ratings’ May 2026 assessment covered 74 FMCG companies, representing about one-third of the sector’s estimated ₹6.6 lakh crore revenue in FY26. It forecast 8–10% revenue growth in FY27, compared with about 8% in FY26. Crisil expected most of the FY27 growth to come from price realisations rather than sales volumes.
| Measure | FY27 forecast | FY26 comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 8–10% | About 8% |
| Realisation growth | 6–7% | Not stated for this measure in the cited forecast |
| Volume growth | 2–3% | 5–6% |
| Rated companies’ EBITDA margin | Down 150–200 basis points from about 19% in FY26, implying roughly 17–18% | About 19% |
These are Crisil forecasts for the companies and sector it assessed, not guidance or results for every FMCG issuer. Revenue growth can remain positive while profit growth weakens if costs rise faster than selling prices, or if price increases restrain volumes.
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Why input-cost pressure differs by FMCG category
Crude oil feeds into products such as packaging, detergents, soaps and other personal- and home-care ingredients. Crisil estimated crude-linked inputs at 30–40% of raw materials for personal-care and home-care makers, compared with about 15% for food and beverage companies. Across FMCG, crude-linked costs including packaging accounted for 25–30% of raw-material costs in the agency’s assessment.
The distinction matters: a sector-wide cost shock does not affect every product basket equally. A company with more home and personal care exposure may face a different cost trajectory from one weighted toward food and beverages. Other commodities, sourcing and product mix also shape the final impact.
How higher costs can reach margins—and consumers
Crisil expected gross margins at organised FMCG companies to fall 300–350 basis points in FY27 as cost pass-through remains partial amid competition and the risk that shoppers trade down to cheaper products. Gross margin measures the difference between sales and direct costs; EBITDA margin also reflects operating expenses, so the two estimates should not be treated as interchangeable.
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The agency expected companies to use advertising calibration, operating efficiencies and supply-chain negotiations to limit the EBITDA-margin decline to 150–200 basis points from roughly 19% in FY26. The forecast illustrates why a company can face a larger squeeze in gross margin but cushion part of it at the operating-profit level.
Crisil also pointed to pressure on household budgets. It projected average crude prices for FY27 to be 30–35% higher year on year, and identified the risk of a below-normal monsoon as a potential headwind to rural demand. The agency cited September 2025 GST rationalisation and higher welfare allocations as possible supports for consumers; these are factors in its assessment, not guaranteed offsets to inflation.
What FMCG companies said ahead of Q2 FY27 results
An Economic Times/PTI report on 11 October 2026 summarized company commentary ahead of Q2 FY27 results. The statements signal differing exposures and mitigation plans, but they are not confirmed Q2 earnings or margins.
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- Dabur: The company said inflation remained elevated, particularly in home and personal care and OTC and ethical products. It said calibrated price increases and savings initiatives partly offset the effect on margins.
- Marico: It said crude-linked derivatives had become more expensive, while copra prices remained about 35% below their peak. Marico expected year-on-year gross-margin improvement from product mix and copra prices.
- Godrej Consumer Products: It said input-cost pressures had intensified across crude derivatives, palm oils and other raw materials.
The differences underline why the same cost environment need not produce the same earnings result. Exposure, the timing of price changes, product mix and cost savings all matter, and the companies’ pre-result comments should not be read as a comparable set of realized Q2 performance.
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Paint makers are exposed to crude-linked derivatives used in materials such as solvents, resins, binders and phthalic anhydride. The estimates available use different denominators: Motilal Oswal estimated these derivatives at about 40% of the paint raw-material basket, while an Economic Times report described crude derivatives as about one-third of total inputs. Those figures describe different measures and should not be compared as if they were identical.
Motilal Oswal’s June 10, 2026 sector update said paint makers had implemented cumulative price increases of about 10–12% around Q4 FY26 to offset raw-material inflation. It reported paint-category revenue growth of 8% and EBITDA growth of 19% in Q4 FY26, while describing management as cautious about FY27 amid competition, geopolitical uncertainty, exchange-rate volatility and the possibility of higher crude-linked costs. The update also said benign raw-material costs had supported Q4 margin expansion.
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Price increases can help recover costs, but the benefit depends on when they take effect and whether rivals follow. Motilal Oswal’s April 2, 2026 note warned that a lag in passing through costs can pressure near-term gross margins. The note modeled crude at an assumed USD 68.5 per barrel base and scenarios of USD 85–110 per barrel; those were analyst assumptions, not statements of actual FY27 prices or a forecast that crude would reach those levels.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What Q1 FY27 paint results show—and what they do not
Grasim’s official release for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 reported Birla Opus paint revenue of ₹1,661 crore, up 64% year on year and 17% sequentially. Grasim said industry-wide input costs had risen sharply and that price revisions had an overall 8.8% impact in the quarter. This reported revenue growth and pricing impact describe one company’s Q1; they do not establish its full-year margin outcome or the earnings path for other paint makers.
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A March 2026 Economic Times report quoted Kotak Securities analyst Amit Agarwal as saying paint makers typically carried about two months of inventory. He said a USD 1 rise in crude had historically affected EBITDA margins by 25 basis points if companies did not raise prices. This is a historical sensitivity attributed to the analyst and subject to the stated no-price-increase condition, not a guaranteed current impact for every paint company. The same report quoted Asian Paints CEO Amit Syngle saying, “Given the current geopolitical situation, the whole crude impact can come in very fast.”
How to assess which companies may be more resilient
There is no complete, same-period dataset in the cited material that ranks the named companies by expected FY27 earnings. Investors comparing businesses should align the period and definition of each figure, then examine the factors that connect input costs to margins and sales:
- Input basket: distinguish crude-linked costs from other commodities, and check whether a stated share refers to raw materials or total inputs.
- Pricing and timing: separate price increases already implemented from expected future pass-through; a delay can leave a temporary margin gap.
- Volume and demand: test whether higher prices could slow volumes, encourage downtrading, or affect rural and urban buyers differently.
- Margin measure: keep gross-margin changes separate from EBITDA-margin changes, which also reflect operating costs and efficiency measures.
- Mix and mitigation: consider product mix, premiumisation, savings, advertising choices, sourcing negotiations and inventory exposure.
- Evidence period: do not mix FY26 results, FY27 forecasts, Q1 FY27 reported figures and pre-Q2 commentary as though they were equivalent.
The evidence supports a differentiated outlook, not a definitive claim that all FMCG and paint makers will see earnings fall by the same amount. Final FY27 earnings across the named companies are not established by the forecasts, partial-year results and pre-result comments available as of 13 October 2026.
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Quick Recap
Sources
- Crisil Ratings, FY27 FMCG outlook, May 2026
- Economic Times/PTI, FMCG company commentary ahead of Q2 FY27, 11 October 2026
- Grasim, Q1 FY27 results release
- Motilal Oswal, paint-sector update, 10 June 2026
- Motilal Oswal, paint input-cost analysis, 2 April 2026
- Economic Times, paint input costs and analyst commentary, March 2026
- Asian Paints, Q1 FY27 media release
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