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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →USDA’s February 2026 WASDE did not show higher U.S. ending stocks than traders expected across the board. For the 2025/26 marketing year, corn stocks were 100 million bushels below the pre-report average estimate, while soybean stocks were 3 million bushels above it and wheat stocks were 13 million bushels above it. The report was released February 10, 2026.
How February’s U.S. ending-stocks estimates compared with expectations
Ending stocks—often called carryout—estimate what remains at the end of a marketing year after projected supply and use. The comparison below uses the USDA February estimate and January estimate alongside Reuters-survey averages reported by Pro Farmer before the report. All figures are U.S. 2025/26 ending stocks in bushels.
| Crop | January USDA estimate | February USDA estimate | Pre-report average estimate | February versus January | February versus average estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 2.227 billion | 2.127 billion | 2.227 billion | 100 million lower | 100 million lower |
| Soybeans | 350 million | 350 million | 347 million | Unchanged | 3 million higher |
| Wheat | 926 million | 931 million | 918 million | 5 million higher | 13 million higher |
The pre-report averages are Reuters analyst-survey estimates as reported by Pro Farmer. USDA’s published figures are reported in its February WASDE-668 and, for corn and soybeans, in Ohio Ag Net’s post-release comparison.
What changed in each crop’s balance sheet
Corn: exports rose and projected stocks fell
USDA raised projected 2025/26 U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion, citing export sales and shipments to date. With supply unchanged and use higher, the February report put ending stocks at 2.1 billion bushels in its summary; Ohio Ag Net’s more precise reported figure was 2.127 billion. The season-average producer price forecast remained $4.10 per bushel.
Soybeans: U.S. estimates held steady as Brazil’s crop forecast increased
USDA left U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections unchanged. Ending stocks remained 350 million bushels, and the season-average price forecast stayed at $10.20 per bushel. Outside the U.S. balance sheet, USDA raised Brazil’s soybean production forecast by 2.0 million metric tons to 180.0 million and Paraguay’s by 0.5 million to 11.5 million. Global soybean ending stocks increased 1.1 million metric tons to 125.5 million.
Wheat: U.S. stocks edged higher; global stocks moved lower
USDA lowered projected U.S. domestic food use, partly offset by a fractional increase in seed use, and raised U.S. ending stocks from January’s 926 million bushels to 931 million. The February estimate was 9 percent above the previous year and the highest since 2019/20. The season-average farm price forecast remained $4.90 per bushel.
The global wheat balance sheet moved in the opposite direction: ending stocks fell to 277.5 million metric tons, a level USDA characterized as a five-year high. U.S. stocks and global stocks are separate measures, so their monthly changes need not match.
What the report does—and does not—say about prices
Ohio Ag Net reported that immediately after the release, March 2026 CBOT corn was unchanged, soybeans were up 11 cents, and wheat was down 2 cents. Its pre-release snapshot had corn unchanged, soybeans up 8 cents, and wheat down 2 cents. These are reported contract snapshots, not proof that the WASDE alone caused the price movements.
The report also revised other commodities. U.S. rice ending stocks rose 1.0 million hundredweight to 50.3 million, while U.S. cotton exports fell 200,000 bales and cotton ending stocks rose by the same amount. Those figures are distinct from the corn, soybean, and wheat comparisons above.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What WASDE is and where to find the February report
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is prepared and released monthly by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. It forecasts U.S. and global supply and use for wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton. It also includes U.S. estimates for sugar, meat, poultry, eggs, and milk, plus Mexico’s sugar supply and use.
The February 2026 report is WASDE-668, approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and dated February 10, 2026. USDA’s WASDE page provides the release schedule, recent reports, and historical data. The report’s opening wheat outlook described 2025/26 U.S. wheat as having unchanged supplies, modestly lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly higher ending stocks.
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