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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteIn a July 2024 Purdue University Ag Economy Barometer survey, 72% of participating producers expected 2025 cash rental rates to remain about the same as in 2024. USDA data published later showed the national average cropland cash rent rose by $1 to $161 per acre in 2025, while pasture rent held at $15.50. Those national figures broadly fit a near-steady picture, but they are not a forecast for any particular farm or lease.
What farmers expected for 2025
The July 12–19, 2024 survey found that 72% of respondents expected cash rents for the 2025 crop year to stay about the same as in 2024. Another 15% expected an increase and 13% expected a decrease. Agriculture.com reported a margin of error of ±5 percentage points for the survey results. Agriculture.com’s report of the Purdue Ag Economy Barometer quoted agricultural economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier saying that leasing discussions for 2025 were beginning across the country.
The poll was not a USDA projection or a survey of every U.S. farm. It covered corn, soybean, wheat, and cotton producers with annual production value of at least $500,000. Its results describe the expectations of that respondent group at the time, not the rent ultimately paid on every parcel.
What USDA later reported for 2025
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published its 2025 Land Values and Cash Rents highlight in December 2025. The national average cash rent for cropland was $161 per acre, $1 more than in 2024. Irrigated cropland averaged $244 per acre, compared with $147 for non-irrigated cropland. Pasture averaged $15.50 per acre, unchanged from 2024. These are nominal 2025 averages, not inflation-adjusted figures. USDA NASS, 2025 Land Values and Cash Rents.
The small increase in the cropland average and unchanged pasture average are consistent with the broad direction of the July 2024 expectations. The comparison is retrospective: the USDA observations were released after the poll and do not show that the survey predicted every state, county, land type, or individual lease correctly.
Why a national average may not fit a local lease
Rent levels vary widely by region and land use. USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) reports 2025 regional cropland rents ranging from $47 per acre in the Southern Plains to $281 in the Pacific region. Regional pasture rents ranged from $7.70 per acre in the Mountain region to $46 in the Corn Belt. The figures are regional averages, not parcel appraisals. USDA ERS, Farmland Value.
For additional context, ERS’s page consulted October 8, 2026 reports that inflation-adjusted average cropland rent fell 3.5% between 2025 and 2026, to $160 per acre, while inflation-adjusted pasture rent rose 3.4%, to $16.50. These later real-dollar comparisons use a different basis from the nominal 2025 NASS figures above, so they should not be read as a direct restatement of those averages.
Regional conditions can also move differently across land types. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’s first-quarter 2025 survey of its Eleventh District reported real cash rents declining for ranchland and dryland while rising for irrigated cropland. That is evidence about the Eleventh District, not a national rent estimate. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, First Quarter 2025 Agricultural Survey.
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NASS cash-rent statistics cover irrigated cropland, non-irrigated cropland, and permanent pasture rented from others on a cash basis. The survey targets farms and ranches with at least $1,000 in agricultural sales or potential sales. NASS describes a county-level stratified design with an approximate sample size of 242,000. Collection begins around mid-February and runs through June; national, state, and county estimates are generally published in August when statistical and disclosure standards allow. USDA NASS, Cash Rents survey guide and methodology.
The estimates do not capture every form of land arrangement. NASS excludes crop-share agreements, per-head or per-pound-of-gain arrangements, animal-unit-month arrangements, free use, and land rented with buildings such as barns. A cash-rent average therefore is not the full price of every farmland lease. NASS county means are also used by USDA’s Farm Service Agency in program administration, including the Conservation Reserve Program; they can inform local decisions, but they are not an appraisal of a specific property.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to use the figures when considering a lease
- Match the land category. Compare irrigated cropland with irrigated cropland, non-irrigated with non-irrigated, and pasture with pasture.
- Use the closest geography available. A national or regional average can provide context, but state and county figures—where published—are more locally relevant. Even a county mean cannot account for a parcel’s specific characteristics.
- Keep the time and dollar basis consistent. Distinguish nominal cash rents for a stated year from inflation-adjusted comparisons across years.
- Confirm the lease structure. USDA cash-rent averages apply to cash arrangements, not crop-share or other excluded terms.
Commodity-price pressures were discussed as a concern for farm finances in 2024, but the cited sources do not establish that commodity prices caused the 2025 rent outcome. Treat that concern as context, not a proven explanation for a particular rent change.
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