Free tools Windows power users keep installed
One-click scans. No signup required.
No: USDA’s latest national forecast puts 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion, not below $70 billion. The forecast, published September 3, 2026, is for the whole U.S. farm sector. The USDA source pages cited here do not establish what year, income measure, or calculation the $70 billion figure refers to, so it cannot be treated as a new national average.
What “farm income” means in USDA statistics
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) publishes several farm-income measures. They answer different questions and are not interchangeable.
- Net farm income (NFI) is ERS’s broad measure of farm-sector profit. It includes cash and noncash income and expenses, as well as changes in inventories. ERS defines it this way: “Net farm income (NFI) reflects income after expenses from production in the current year and is calculated by subtracting farm expenses from gross farm income.”
- Net cash farm income (NCFI) compares cash receipts with cash expenses. It leaves out noncash items such as changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and the imputed rental income of farm operator dwellings. ERS says NCFI is generally less variable than NFI.
- Gross cash farm income (GCFI) is income before expenses. It includes cash receipts, farm-related income, and government farm program payments.
These definitions are from ERS’s Farming and Farm Income and Farm Income and Wealth Statistics FAQs.
What the September 2026 forecast reports
The figures below cover the United States. The 2026 forecast and year-over-year changes are nominal dollars unless the table explicitly says “inflation-adjusted.” ERS published the forecast on September 3, 2026.
Quick wins for a faster PC:
Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →#1 Best Overall
| Measure | 2026 forecast | Change from 2025 or comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Net farm income (NFI) | $158.4 billion, nominal | Down $4.3 billion, or 2.6%, from 2025 in nominal dollars. |
| Net cash farm income (NCFI) | $176.4 billion, nominal | Up $0.7 billion, or 0.4%, from 2025 in nominal dollars. |
| Gross cash farm income (GCFI) | $635.1 billion in inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars | ERS compares it with $431.8 billion in inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars in 2006. |
| Cash receipts | $540.3 billion, nominal | Down $1.7 billion, or 0.3%, from 2025 in nominal dollars. |
| Total farm production expenses | $492.8 billion, nominal | Up $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, from 2025 in nominal dollars. |
Source for the 2026 forecasts and comparisons: ERS’s Farm Sector Income Forecast, updated September 3, 2026; the GCFI comparison is also reported in ERS’s Farming and Farm Income. These rows should not be treated as interchangeable totals: for example, NFI includes noncash items and inventory changes, while GCFI is measured before expenses.
Is $70 billion a new average?
ERS says that, if its 2026 forecast is realized, NFI will remain above its 2006–25 average in inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars. Its forecast page does not give a numeric value for that average. The cited ERS pages also do not identify $70 billion as a new average or as the current national NFI forecast.
Rank #2
That leaves the figure’s meaning unresolved. It could describe a different year, measure, geography, or dollar basis, but none of those explanations is established by the cited sources. A $70 billion figure should not be labeled the current U.S. national farm-income figure without identifying its source and definition.
Why the forecast can fall in real terms while nominal NCFI rises
Inflation-adjusted figures account for changes in purchasing power, so they can move differently from nominal totals. ERS forecasts that from 2025 to 2026, NFI will decline by $9.1 billion, or 5.5%, in inflation-adjusted terms; NCFI will decline by $4.6 billion, or 2.5%, on the same basis. If realized, both measures would still be above their respective 2006–25 averages in inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars. The comparisons are from the September 3, 2026 ERS forecast.
What’s actually slowing this PC down?
Pick the symptom - the matching free tool is one click away.
Rank #3
What is shaping the 2026 outlook
Receipts differ between crops and livestock
ERS forecasts crop receipts to rise $14.6 billion, or 6.1%, to $253.0 billion in 2026, while animal and animal product receipts are forecast to fall $16.4 billion, or 5.4%, to $287.3 billion. These are nominal U.S. forecast values compared with 2025. In inflation-adjusted terms, ERS forecasts total cash receipts to decline $18.0 billion, or 3.2%, with crop receipts up and animal receipts down.
Government payments are a significant part of the forecast
ERS forecasts $47.4 billion in direct government farm program payments for 2026, $19.5 billion above 2025. The forecast includes $26.5 billion in supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance and $15.6 billion in Farm Bill payments triggered by commodity prices or revenue. ERS excludes USDA loans and Federal Crop Insurance Corporation indemnities from this direct-payment component. The forecast reflects relevant provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Expenses are also forecast to rise
In addition to the nominal expense increase shown above, ERS forecasts a $7.1 billion, or 1.5%, increase in total farm production expenses from 2025 in inflation-adjusted terms. ERS says its September 3 forecast used the August 12, 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for commodity price and production forecasts. These receipts, payment, and expense figures come from the ERS Farm Sector Income Forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Forecasts change as more data arrive
The 2026 figures are forecasts, not final realized outcomes. ERS initially publishes a calendar-year forecast, updates it three times, and converts it to an estimate about 19 months after the first forecast. New cash-receipt data from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and preliminary farm production-expense data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey can change estimates.
Best Value
For example, ERS’s September 2026 revision history says the 2025 NFI estimate was revised upward by 5.2% from the most recent forecast. Across 1981–2020, the average absolute percentage difference between the last forecast and first estimate was 12.5%. For 2005–24, ERS reports that the average absolute percentage difference between first NCFI forecasts and first published estimates was 13.3%; for fourth releases it was 7.1%. The corresponding figures for NFI were 14.4% and 10.9%. These are historical forecast-evaluation figures, not a confidence interval for the 2026 forecast. See ERS’s Update and Revision History and FAQs.
How to assess a claim about an “average”
Before comparing a farm-income figure with USDA’s national forecast, check that the figures describe the same thing:
- Identify the measure. Is it NFI, NCFI, GCFI, or another definition?
- Check the population and period. Does it cover the national farm sector, a state or region, or individual farms—and which years are included?
- Check the dollar basis. Is the figure nominal, or adjusted for inflation? If adjusted, which constant-dollar year is used?
- Check its status and date. Is it a forecast, estimate, or finalized value, and which USDA release vintage produced it?
- Separate payments from market income. When a claim discusses what farmers earned, determine whether government payments are included and whether it describes receipts before expenses or income after expenses.
A national sector total does not tell you what a typical farm earned. The ERS figures discussed here are not a distribution of individual farm incomes, so they cannot establish how many farms earned above or below a particular amount.
What the figures support
As of ERS’s September 3, 2026 release, the national 2026 NFI forecast is $158.4 billion nominally, well above $70 billion. ERS also forecasts a real decline from 2025 while placing 2026 NFI above its 2006–25 inflation-adjusted average if the forecast is realized. The cited sources do not verify $70 billion as a new average; that claim needs a year, measure, geographic scope, and dollar basis before it can be meaningfully compared.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
