The proposed FARM Act of 2024 could have provided at least $21 billion in ad hoc payments for major crops with specified payment formulas, according to analysts. That was an estimate of a proposal—not an official federal cost score or money already spent—and it did not include every commodity the bill could cover.
What the FARM Act proposed
Representative Trent Kelly introduced the Farmer Assistance and Revenue Mitigation Act of 2024, H.R. 10045, on October 25, 2024. It proposed economic assistance for the 2024 crop year amid low crop prices and high production costs. The bill described eligible commodities broadly and specified payment calculations for eight crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, oats and barley. The bill and its summary set out the proposal; farmdoc daily’s November 4 analysis explains the analysts’ cost estimate.
How payments were calculated
For the eight listed crops, the proposal compared expected gross returns per acre with expected production costs. Expected returns used USDA’s projected farm price for the 2024–2025 marketing year and the national average harvested yield over the prior ten years. The cost side used the most recent USDA Economic Research Service forecasts. Other covered commodities could also qualify, with a “comparable estimate” required, but those commodities were not included in the analysts’ eight-crop cost calculation.
Proposed payment limits
The proposal set a limit of $175,000 for an individual or entity receiving less than 75% of average gross income from farming, ranching or silviculture, and $350,000 for one receiving at least 75%. The proposal included exceptions and multipliers involving joint ventures and general partnerships. Analysts said payments would be funded through the Commodity Credit Corporation and receive an emergency designation. Their discussion of payment limits and funding describes these provisions.
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What the $21 billion estimate covers
University of Illinois analysts Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnitkey and Nick Paulson, together with Ohio State University’s Carl Zulauf, estimated at least $21 billion in ad hoc payments for major commodities with specified payment calculations. That figure was their estimate of potential payments under the proposal, not an enacted spending total or an official government score. Because the calculation did not include every eligible commodity, it is best understood as a minimum for the specified crop formulas, not a total for all possible payments.
A November 13 follow-up from farmdoc daily estimated $21.7 billion in payments for the eight crops. The authors compared that amount with $35.9 billion in estimated economic losses for those crops, meaning the proposed payments would cover 61% of those estimated losses. These are figures from the later analysis and should be kept distinct from the November 4 estimate. The November 13 analysis provides its figures and policy discussion.
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Why analysts said it might not pass as proposed
The analysts argued that the size of the proposed payments and the higher payment limits created significant political hurdles. They said the bill could be substantially changed or left out, particularly amid competing legislative demands. These were assessments of political prospects, not a settled prediction about the bill’s fate. Their discussion of the proposal’s political challenges sets out that view.
They also raised a policy concern: if lower commodity prices persisted, payments on this scale might ease pressure on farm businesses to reduce costs. Their later analysis questioned whether emergency aid would address an ongoing gap between crop revenue and production costs or postpone a more durable change to the farm safety net. They noted that estimated payment coverage differed by crop and that the timing of existing commodity-program payments added uncertainty.
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What the estimate does—and does not—tell readers
- It describes a proposal. H.R. 10045 proposed assistance for the 2024 crop year; the contemporaneous analyses do not establish that it became a payment program.
- It is not a complete total for every eligible commodity. The at-least-$21-billion estimate covered major crops with specified formulas, while other commodities could qualify under the bill.
- It is not a prediction of what any particular farm would receive. The estimate concerns aggregate potential payments; individual amounts would depend on the proposal’s eligibility and calculation rules.
- It does not resolve the bill’s final legislative status. The analyses cited here do not establish H.R. 10045’s eventual disposition.
For context, Successful Farming reported the analysts’ assessment that “The sheer size of the proposed support payments present significant hurdles to the FARM Act becoming law as proposed.” Successful Farming’s report attributes the statement to the four farmdoc daily analysts.
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