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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Extreme heat is an emerging financial risk for some European insurers and occupational pension providers, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) said on 30 September 2026. Its preliminary assessment identifies heat as the leading climate-related liability risk for these sectors—but says current financial effects remain limited and could grow over coming decades.
What does extreme heat mean for insurers?
Heat can affect the assumptions insurers and pension providers use to estimate mortality (death rates), morbidity (illness) and longevity (how long people live). Those assumptions inform the expected costs and liabilities associated with insurance and pension business.
EIOPA used an illustrative risk-scoring framework to estimate potential heatwave impacts across types of undertakings, insurance lines and countries. The framework considers hazard, vulnerability and exposure, and broadly follows the authority’s approach to assessing non-life insurers’ underwriting exposure to physical climate risks. The report publication page is available from EIOPA.
The assessment is about potential effects on health- and mortality-related business, not a finding that heat has already caused large direct losses for every insurer. EIOPA says the financial impact is currently limited, citing offsetting factors, widespread public-sector healthcare coverage and portfolio diversification. It expects the risks to increase in coming decades.
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Which insurance lines could be most exposed?
EIOPA identifies the following lines as among the most impacted in its assessment. The likely effects depend on the product and the insurer’s portfolio; they are not uniform across the sector.
| Business segment | Lines identified by EIOPA | Potential risk channels |
|---|---|---|
| Non-life | Medical expense, income protection and workers’ compensation | Mortality and morbidity; effects vary by product and portfolio. |
| Life | Similar-to-life health insurance and other non-participating life insurance | Mortality, morbidity and longevity assumptions; net effects depend on the portfolio. |
Heat-related risks may put pressure on insurers’ own funds through products exposed to mortality and health costs. Changes to longevity assumptions may partly offset those effects, so the net financial result is not necessarily a loss in every case. EIOPA’s announcement and summary are available on its website.
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What does EIOPA say about heatwave deaths?
EIOPA reported that heatwaves have caused around 300,000 deaths in Europe since 2000, and that about 97% of fatalities linked to extreme weather and climate events in Europe since 2000 were attributed to heatwaves. These are figures reported by EIOPA in its 30 September 2026 announcement; they are not an independently recalculated estimate here.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the warning is qualified
EIOPA Chair Petra Hielkema described the study as preliminary and said heat could become a material risk factor for certain insurance lines and pension providers, despite offsetting factors and diversification. The distinction matters: the regulator is identifying a developing exposure, not claiming that all insurers face the same losses now.
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Portfolio composition, product design and the way heat affects mortality, illness and longevity assumptions shape the outcome. EIOPA’s public materials do not establish country rankings or provide granular scenario assumptions and numerical model outputs, so those cannot be used to infer which country or provider faces the greatest financial impact.
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