There is no single forecast for “electricity prices”: the answer depends on the country, market and price measure. In the latest U.S. outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts different paths for wholesale hub prices and residential electricity prices. International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting also shows how sharply regional wholesale markets can diverge. Neither national averages nor wholesale forecasts determine an individual household’s bill.
What are electricity prices forecast to be in 2026 and 2027?
The latest near-term U.S. figures here come from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released October 6, 2026, with forecasts completed October 1, 2026. The wholesale and residential figures below are separate series, not two ways of quoting the same price.
| Geography and measure | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| United States: average wholesale price across 11 tracked hubs | $52/MWh; 11% above the 2025 average | $49/MWh |
| United States: residential electricity price | 18.2 cents/kWh | 18.7 cents/kWh |
Source for every U.S. figure in this table: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, released October 6, 2026; forecasts completed October 1, 2026. The wholesale series is an average of 11 hubs, while the residential series is a national price measure. The EIA notes that wholesale prices are only one component of residential prices and are strongly influenced by natural-gas prices and weather.
For global context, the IEA’s 2026 mid-year update forecasts worldwide electricity-demand growth of 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, following 3% growth in 2025. Those are demand-growth forecasts, not electricity-price forecasts. The IEA says demand is being driven by industry, appliance ownership, electric vehicles, air conditioning, heat pumps and data centers; it forecasts U.S. electricity-demand growth near 2% in 2026, led by data centers, air conditioning and industry.
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Why do forecasts differ by region?
Fuel mix, weather, demand, generation availability and grid constraints vary from one market to another. The EIA’s U.S. hub average therefore masks sizable regional differences: it forecasts the PJM hub price to rise 41% in 2026 from 2025, the largest increase among the regions it tracks, while Northwest Mid-Columbia is forecast to fall 23% over the same period.
The EIA also projects different directions for some U.S. hubs in 2027: prices are forecast to decline in PJM, ISO-NE and NYISO, while CAISO is forecast to rise 19% to $30/MWh after historic lows in 2026. These are regional wholesale forecasts, not estimates of what every household in those areas will pay.
The IEA’s observations during the 2026 LNG price shock illustrate the international variation. It reports that average spot wholesale prices in the European Union and Japan were more than 30% higher year over year in the second quarter of 2026. U.S. average wholesale prices were largely unchanged over that comparison, while India’s average electricity prices rose less than 10%. The IEA associates price increases in several markets since March with higher LNG costs following Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
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Other market conditions can push prices in the opposite direction. The IEA reports that Australian wholesale prices were about 45% lower, supported by strong renewable generation and expanding battery storage. In the first half of 2026, negative wholesale prices occurred during around 20% of hours in South Australia and California; Spain recorded negative prices in 17% of hours, compared with 10% in 2025. These are observations for named wholesale markets and periods, not evidence that households receive negative retail tariffs.
How wholesale prices affect a household electricity bill
Wholesale prices reflect the cost of electricity traded in a market. A household tariff is a retail price and can also include delivery through transmission and distribution networks, capacity costs in some regions, taxes and fees. Some retail tariffs pass through wholesale-market movements more directly than others, and the timing of a pass-through depends on the customer’s tariff and supplier.
That is why a forecast such as the EIA’s U.S. average wholesale price of $52/MWh for 2026 cannot be used to calculate a household’s bill. The EIA’s separate U.S. residential forecast is 18.2 cents/kWh for 2026, but even that national average does not specify a particular customer’s usage, utility service area, rate plan or local charges. The IEA likewise notes that networks, taxes and fees make up a large share of household bills in many countries.
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For a personal budget, check the rate and billing terms on your utility’s current tariff, then use your own expected usage and any applicable delivery charges, taxes and fixed fees. In deregulated markets, compare plans using the same usage assumptions and check whether the advertised rate is fixed, variable or time-of-use; a national forecast is not a substitute for those terms.
What drives electricity price forecasts?
Fuel costs
Natural gas can set the marginal cost of generation in relevant electricity markets, so changes in gas prices can affect wholesale electricity prices. The EIA identifies natural-gas prices as a strong influence on U.S. wholesale prices. The IEA’s account of the 2026 LNG price shock shows why the effect is not uniform: markets differ in their dependence on gas-fired generation and in their exposure to traded fuel costs.
Weather and seasonal demand
Hot weather can raise demand for air conditioning; cold snaps can increase heating demand and stress generation or transmission. The EIA cites winter storm Fern and high summer temperatures in 2026 as causes of regional price spikes compared with 2025. Forecast weather is uncertain, so a different season can shift actual prices away from an annual outlook.
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Load growth
Higher electricity use can put pressure on prices when generation or networks cannot keep pace, though the result also depends on what supply is available at the time of demand. The IEA identifies data centers, industry, air conditioning, electric vehicles, heat pumps and appliance ownership among contributors to electricity-demand growth.
Generation mix, flexibility and storage
Strong wind or solar output can reduce wholesale prices during high-generation periods. If the grid has limited ability to store energy, shift demand or move power to another area, prices can fall below zero in some hours even while prices rise at other times. Batteries and demand response can shift consumption or supply across hours, making them more valuable where intraday price spreads are wide.
Networks, capacity and policy
Transmission and distribution upgrades, as well as capacity-market auction costs in some regions, can affect retail prices beyond the wholesale energy component. For long-term forecasts, assumptions about technology, markets and policy also matter; changing those assumptions can produce different modeled futures.
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How to compare electricity forecasts fairly
Before comparing two forecast figures, confirm that they describe the same kind of price, period and market. A short checklist helps prevent a wholesale figure, retail tariff and futures quote from being mistaken for equivalents:
- Geography: Identify the country and, where relevant, the hub, market operator region or utility service area.
- Price measure: Distinguish spot or day-ahead wholesale prices, futures or forward prices, and retail residential or business tariffs.
- Date and horizon: Record when the outlook was published, when its forecast was completed and whether the figure is for a year, season, month or individual hours.
- Units and basis: Check whether the figure is in USD/MWh or cents/kWh, and whether it is a nominal or inflation-adjusted price. Do not compare annual averages directly with hourly prices.
- What the price includes: Establish whether delivery, capacity charges, taxes and other fees are included.
- Assumptions: Look for treatment of fuel costs, weather, demand, generation, transmission constraints, storage and policy.
- Who needs the figure: A household, small business, industrial buyer, generator and investor may face different prices and risks.
For example, the IEA’s Electricity 2026 prices page reports an average EU wholesale electricity price of about USD 95/MWh in 2025, roughly 10% higher year over year. It also reports EU futures prices of around USD 95/MWh for 2026 and USD 85/MWh for 2027, based on market prices as of January 26, 2026. Those futures are a dated market snapshot—not a current October 2026 forecast—and should not be compared with a household tariff as if the measures were interchangeable.
What can long-term forecasts tell you?
Long-range electricity outlooks are most useful for exploring how outcomes could change under different assumptions, not for treating one number as a guaranteed price. The EIA describes its Annual Energy Outlook 2026 as “a product suite for alternative futures analysis, not a set of predictions.” Its cases through 2050 vary according to assumptions about markets, technology and policy. They do not establish what a particular household will pay in a specific future year.
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