Online shopping is growing, but it is not replacing stores. In 2026, the bigger change is how people move between AI-assisted product research, mobile and social discovery, online checkout, physical stores, delivery and returns. For shoppers, that creates more ways to compare and buy—and new reasons to check prices, privacy and purchase terms before paying.
How much of retail is ecommerce?
The answer depends on the geography, period and measurement. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Q2 2026 figures show online retail sales continuing to grow, but the Bureau said those estimates were superseded on September 28, 2026. They are useful as a dated snapshot, not as the latest unrevised estimate.
| Measure | Q2 2026 figure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. retail ecommerce sales, seasonally adjusted | $340.2 billion; 12.2% above Q2 2025; 17.1% of total U.S. retail sales | Adjusted for seasonal patterns, but not for changes in prices. U.S. Census Bureau, published August 18, 2026; estimates superseded September 28, 2026. |
| U.S. retail ecommerce sales, not seasonally adjusted | $329.5 billion; 12.4% above Q2 2025; 16.4% of total U.S. retail sales | A separate, unadjusted series. Do not pair its share with the seasonally adjusted sales figure. U.S. Census Bureau, published August 18, 2026; estimates superseded September 28, 2026. |
| Worldwide ecommerce share of retail sales | 20.5% in 2025, projected to reach 22.5% by 2028 | An EMARKETER estimate and forecast cited by Shopify, not a Census measurement. Shopify notes that China lifts the global average; the cited estimate excluding China is about 12.8%. |
These figures are not interchangeable: the U.S. figures are Census estimates for one quarter, while the worldwide figures are a secondary estimate and forecast with a different scope. Separately, the National Retail Federation forecast 4.4% growth to $5.6 trillion in total U.S. retail sales for 2026. That is a forecast for all retail, not ecommerce alone.
What are the biggest online shopping trends in 2026?
AI is becoming a research assistant, not necessarily a buyer
AI tools are entering the research stage of shopping. In a global consumer study published by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and IBM in January 2026, 41% of surveyed consumers said they use AI assistants to research products, 33% to look for reviews and 31% to search for deals. Those are reported survey behaviors; they do not show that shoppers have broadly handed purchasing decisions to autonomous agents.
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Shopify’s 2026 trend roundup also describes AI-driven product discovery and agentic storefront capabilities. These developments could change where shoppers encounter product information, but they make accurate listings, clear policies and credible reviews more important—not less. Treat AI recommendations as another input to compare, especially when price, seller identity, delivery or return terms are unclear.
Mobile and social discovery connect to other shopping channels
Shopping journeys increasingly span a phone, a social platform, a retailer’s website and a physical store. Shopify reports that mobile devices generated 72% of traffic and 68% of orders on U.S. retail websites in Q1 2026, based on Shopify’s own data. It also says referrals from AI search to Shopify stores grew eightfold year over year as of Q1 2026. These are platform-specific measures, not universal retail benchmarks.
NRF and IBM found that 72% of surveyed consumers still shop in stores. The online shift is therefore better understood as more connected routes to a purchase than as a one-way move away from physical retail. For shoppers, the practical questions are whether the price and stock information match across channels, whether pickup or delivery is convenient, and whether customer service and returns work if the purchase goes wrong.
Value and convenience compete with confidence and trust
NRF and IBM report that about a third of surveyed global consumers are trading down to budget-friendly alternatives, while some selectively spend more on trusted brands. That points to a more nuanced pattern than simply buying the cheapest option: shoppers may economize in one category and pay more where they value confidence, quality or reliability.
Shopify’s roundup cites a 2026 Salsify study on convenience as an online purchase motivator and user-generated content as useful product-page material. Such signals can help shoppers assess a product, but they do not replace checking the full price, specifications and seller terms. A low advertised price can be less attractive once delivery charges, return conditions or product uncertainty are taken into account.
Delivery, returns and product details remain part of the purchase
Checkout is not the end of the shopping experience. Shopify’s roundup highlights delivery cost and speed, preferred return options and detailed product information as factors that can create friction. These are practical decision points for shoppers: review the expected arrival window, any shipping charge, the return deadline and who pays return postage before placing an order. Product dimensions, materials, compatibility and care instructions can matter as much as a promotional image.
Resale, 3D views, sustainability claims and cross-border buying add options
Shopify also identifies resale and circular commerce, augmented-reality or 3D product views, sustainability claims and cross-border shopping among the themes shaping ecommerce. These are reported trends rather than equally established measures of how much consumers spend or how quickly each practice is growing. A 3D preview may help visualize an item, resale may offer a lower-cost route, and international listings may broaden choice; each still calls for checking condition, total landed cost, seller terms and the basis for environmental claims.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How should shoppers protect their budget and information?
Compare the total cost, not just the listing price
- Check the final checkout total, including delivery, taxes or fees shown before purchase.
- Compare the return window and costs alongside the price, particularly for clothing, electronics or other items where fit or compatibility is uncertain.
- Use product details and reviews to assess whether the item matches the need; do not assume a prominent recommendation is an independent endorsement.
Use personalization without treating data sharing as all-or-nothing
In the NRF/IBM survey, 52% of consumers said they were comfortable sharing data, while 83% expressed concerns that included privacy, misuse and unwanted marketing. Those findings overlap: they do not mean that consumers fall into two mutually exclusive camps. For shoppers, a sensible response is to share only what is needed for a transaction, review account and marketing settings, and consider whether the convenience of a personalized feature is worth the information requested.
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Keep a record of the terms that matter
- Save the order confirmation and the product page or key listing details for expensive or time-sensitive purchases.
- Check the seller’s identity and contact information, especially when buying through a marketplace or social link.
- Before using an AI shopping assistant or social recommendation, verify the product, price and seller on the retailer’s own checkout page.
What these trends mean for retailers—and what they do not
Retailers face a connected operating challenge: product discovery may happen off-site, while fulfillment, returns and service still shape whether customers trust the purchase. Better mobile experiences, consistent information across channels and clear delivery and return terms can address real shopping friction. But the presence of a trend does not prove every business should adopt every tool.
For example, Shopify’s roundup includes platform-specific observations and case studies, alongside statistics attributed to other organizations. Its examples can illustrate possible approaches, but they are not universal evidence that AI, social commerce, augmented reality or a particular channel will pay off for every retailer. A business decision should fit its customers, geography, costs and ability to support the experience after checkout.
Quick Recap
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