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The Money Desk · Blog
Re:

Does One Group Control 51% of Bitcoin’s Mining Power?

Recent Bitcoin pool-share reports show concentration across several labels, not verified control of 51% by one group. Here’s what that means for security.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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No verified evidence in the cited reporting shows that one group currently controls 51% of Bitcoin’s mining power. Recent figures instead attribute large shares of block production to several separately named mining pools. That concentration can matter for Bitcoin’s security, but pool labels do not prove common ownership or coordination.

What the recent figures show

The available 2026 reports describe dated pool-label snapshots, not a verified 51% share held by one owner or coordinated group.

Observation What was reported What it establishes
June 23, 2026 snapshot Bitcoin.com News reported that Foundry Digital, AntPool, ViaBTC, and F2Pool together exceeded 70%, citing miningpoolstats.stream. A combined share attributed to four pool labels in that snapshot—not that any one group controlled 51%.
One-week sample ending September 30, 2026 Satoshi Gazette Data Desk counted 1,024 blocks. Foundry USA, AntPool, and F2Pool labels accounted for 61.72%; its estimated combined hashrate interval was 58–65% at 95% confidence based on sampling alone. A sample-based estimate for three labels, not proof of common ownership, coordination, or control of all participating machines.
Six-month observation ending December 30, 2024 The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance published a historical pool-operator share observation in 2025. Historical context only; it does not establish a current share.

Pool-share numbers depend on the observation window and on how blocks are attributed to labels. A chart of recent block production can indicate which labels found blocks; it does not, by itself, identify who owns the mining equipment, where it is located, whether operators are coordinating, or how quickly miners could redirect their work.

How a 51% attack could threaten Bitcoin

Bitcoin miners repeatedly hash block headers. Proof of work makes replacing older blocks costly because a competing history must accumulate substantial work. The Bitcoin Developer Guide explains: “Only if you acquired a majority of the network’s hashing power could you reliably execute such a 51 percent attack against transaction history (although, it should be noted, that even less than 50% of the hashing power still has a good chance of performing such attacks).”

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With a majority of hashing power, an attacker could try to build a competing chain that excludes or reorders transactions, delays confirmations, or reverses recent transactions. One possible use is double-spending the attacker’s own coins: spend them in a transaction, then attempt to replace that recent history with a chain in which the transaction did not occur. A majority makes such an attack more reliable; it does not guarantee success in every circumstance.

What a majority attacker cannot do

A majority of mining power is not the same as control over every Bitcoin function or every user’s funds. The SEC-hosted issuer filing describes risks including preventing transactions from being confirmed and reversing recent transactions. It also says an attacker could not generate new bitcoin or transactions, or spend another person’s bitcoin without access to that person’s private keys.

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Why pool share is not the same as ownership

Mining pools let participants combine hashing resources so they find blocks more often and share proceeds roughly in proportion to the hashing power they contribute. As the Bitcoin Developer Guide’s explanation of pooled mining notes, this can give participants smaller, less variable payments than solo mining.

That arrangement makes pool labels useful for tracking block production, but a pool’s reported share does not show that its operator owns all machines pointed at it. Participating miners may be separate owners. The recent sample’s labels also do not establish geography, coordination, or how readily miners can switch pools. A claim about one group controlling the network therefore needs more than the combined share of several pool labels.

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How to assess a concentration claim

  • Check the time window. A one-week sample, a single-day snapshot, and a multi-month observation answer different questions.
  • Identify the quantity. Block-label counts, estimated hashrate, and ownership or control of mining equipment are not interchangeable measures.
  • Check attribution. Find out how blocks were assigned to a pool label and whether the figure is a direct count or an estimate.
  • Separate pools from groups. Adding several named pools together does not establish that one entity controls them or that they are coordinating.
  • Read uncertainty and response limits. Sampling intervals describe statistical uncertainty, while miner mobility and evidence of coordination are separate questions.

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