Consumer confidence can influence expectations about household spending and the economy, but it is not a dependable standalone signal for where stock prices will go. Confidence surveys measure what people say they think and plan to do; they do not measure purchases or forecast returns. Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago analysis also finds that the relationship between sentiment and realized spending weakened after 2020. Investors should read confidence reports as context, then compare them with actual economic data and market conditions.
What the Consumer Confidence Index measures
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Index summarizes survey responses about prevailing business conditions and expected developments in the months ahead. Its report includes views on current conditions and expectations, as well as questions about jobs, household income, inflation, interest rates, stock prices, buying intentions and vacation plans. It is a survey-based indicator—not a count of transactions or a guarantee that respondents’ expectations will come true.
“Consumer confidence” is not one universal series. The Conference Board index and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index use different questions and have differed in collection methods and sampled populations. The University of Michigan moved to web-based collection in April 2024; the Conference Board moved online in May 2021. The Chicago Fed’s June 2026 analysis estimated a fairly small effect from the Conference Board’s transition, while identifying possible measurement and timing issues in the Michigan series.
| Measure | What the cited evidence establishes | How to use the comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index | Includes current-condition and expectations components. The Conference Board survey had moved online in May 2021; the Chicago Fed’s June 2026 analysis estimated the transition’s effect as fairly small. | Use its subindexes and underlying answers to understand what is changing, rather than relying only on the headline. |
| University of Michigan consumer sentiment index | A separate survey with different questions and collection history; it moved to web-based collection in April 2024. The Chicago Fed identified potential measurement and timing concerns. | Do not treat it as interchangeable with the Conference Board series or assume one is universally better. |
| Chicago Fed Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (C-CSI) | A research composite using the Michigan and Conference Board indexes and related daily measures to address estimated measurement error and timing issues. It has limited history. | Consider it a research measure, not an established replacement or an official forecast. |
The New York Fed’s 1998 comparison of the Conference Board and Michigan measures found that the Conference Board index had significant explanatory power for most of the spending categories studied; job-prospects questions were especially predictive in that analysis. That historical result concerns household expenditure, not modern stock-market returns, and does not establish a universally superior index.
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What the latest Conference Board release said
In its U.S. release updated September 29, 2026, the Conference Board reported that the Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August to 81.9 (1985=100). The preliminary survey period ran from September 1 through September 23, 2026. Toluna conducted the survey online for the Conference Board, which says it publishes the index at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of each month.
| September 2026 measure | Reading | Change from August |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 81.9 (1985=100) | Down 6.7 points |
| Present Situation Index | 109.3 | Down 7.9 points |
| Expectations Index | 63.6 | Down 5.9 points; third consecutive monthly decline |
The same September release reported that average and median 12-month inflation expectations each rose 0.3 percentage points, to 6.1% and 5.1%, respectively. The share of respondents expecting higher interest rates over the next year rose 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%. Consumers still largely expected stock prices to rise over the coming year, although optimism moderated.
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The release also reported planned purchases and services, but those intentions are separate reported dimensions—not components of the headline index. On a six-month moving-average basis, furniture and smartphones led desired durable purchases. Restaurants, bars and take-out; streaming, internet and mobile services; beauty and personal care; utilities; and healthcare were the leading planned service categories. These plans describe intentions, not completed spending.
Does confidence predict consumer spending?
It can offer useful context, but the relationship with realized spending has not been stable. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) measure actual consumption after adjusting for inflation; an index reading summarizes survey answers. Comparing the two helps show whether reported optimism or pessimism is translating into purchases.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchIn a June 2026 analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago authors calculated historical ten-year rolling correlations between annual real PCE growth and the two major sentiment indexes. Before 2020, the average correlation was 0.69 for the Michigan index and 0.60 for the Conference Board index. In the post-2020 period shown, the Michigan relationship was near zero; the Conference Board’s rolling correlation fell below 0.25 in 2020 and later edged up to around 0.35. These are historical correlations calculated by the authors, not estimates that confidence caused spending.
The Chicago Fed authors emphasize the two-way problem: “Responses are just as likely to be driven by prevailing economic and financial conditions as they are to potentially drive them.” A household might report less confidence because prices, employment prospects or financial conditions have changed; the same factors can also affect its spending. Sentiment can therefore move alongside the economy without independently explaining what happens next.
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The authors’ forecasting exercise illustrates why a composite measure should not be treated as a settled answer. In their June 2026 model, the six-month-ahead annual real PCE growth forecast for October 2026 was 1.3% using the Michigan index and 2.0% using C-CSI, against year-over-year real PCE growth of 2.1% through April 2026. Those were outputs from a particular model exercise, not official forecasts. The authors’ out-of-sample tests found inconsistent recent performance: sentiment-based models often struggled to beat a benchmark without sentiment.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How confidence and the stock market can affect each other
Market movements may change confidence
Stock prices can shape how people view the economic outlook. Rising valuations may be read as a sign of stronger future profits and incomes; they can also increase the wealth of people who own stocks. In a 2019 analysis using data through September 2018, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that S&P 500 price changes predicted changes in consumer confidence in its model, while confidence changes did not predict price changes in that specification. This is historical evidence, not a current market forecast. The analysis also cautioned that stock ownership is concentrated, limiting the likely effect of this confidence channel on broad economic activity.
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A 1999 Federal Reserve discussion paper by Maria Ward Otoo found a strong contemporaneous aggregate relationship between equity values and sentiment. Her analysis of individual Michigan survey responses was more consistent with people using stock-price movements as a leading indicator of future activity and labor income than responding only to a rise in household wealth. Otoo did not rule out a wealth effect, and the findings do not settle the causal role of wealth in aggregate spending. The sample is historical, so it should not be read as a present-day causal estimate.
Confidence may inform the economic outlook without forecasting returns
If sentiment changes household spending, that could matter to expectations about economic activity and, indirectly, to investors’ views of companies and the economy. But a possible connection between confidence and spending does not prove that the index reliably forecasts stock returns. The Kansas City Fed analysis notes that information in confidence about future consumption overlaps with information in other economic and financial indicators.
The studies cited here do not establish a profitable or dependable strategy for buying or selling stocks based on a confidence release. Monthly survey results may also reflect conditions that investors already know or have priced into markets. Treat a surprise reading as one new piece of context, not a trade instruction.
How to read a consumer confidence release
- Separate current conditions from expectations. Check the Present Situation and Expectations indexes individually. A weak headline can combine very different views about conditions now and the months ahead.
- Find what changed in the answers. Look at reported views on business conditions, jobs and household income instead of assuming the index moved for one particular reason.
- Check inflation, interest-rate and stock-price expectations. These are related survey results that can help explain the outlook respondents describe; they are not the same as realized inflation, future interest rates or market returns.
- Keep planned purchases in their proper category. The Conference Board reports buying intentions separately. Do not describe those plans as part of the headline index or as completed spending.
- Compare sentiment with realized data. Put the survey beside real consumption, income, labor-market information and prevailing market conditions. A divergence can be informative, but it does not by itself prove that either measure is wrong.
- Consider the series and its history. Note which survey you are reading, its questions and collection method, and whether a comparison spans a methodology change. Avoid ranking an index as “best” without specifying the outcome and sample period.
For broader household-expectations context, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations is another survey, not a substitute for either the Conference Board or Michigan confidence index.
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