Not reliably. Luxury watches can lose resale value during a market downturn, and individual brands and models do not move in lockstep. Some measures have recently improved, but that does not make watches recession-proof or predict what a particular watch will sell for. Buy one primarily because you want to wear it—not as a dependable store of value.
What does it mean for a watch to “hold its value”?
There are three different comparisons behind that phrase:
- Current resale value: An estimated secondary-market value is not necessarily the price a seller actually receives. Asking prices can also differ from completed-sale prices.
- Resale value versus retail: A watch may retain some value and still sell for less than its original retail price. WatchCharts defines value retention as the difference between estimated secondary-market value and retail price.
- Your net result after selling: Your purchase price, condition, service needs, and selling costs affect what you keep. Market indexes do not calculate an individual owner’s net return.
Retail is not a guaranteed resale floor. A model that once sold above retail can lose that premium if supply, buyer interest, or market sentiment shifts.
What happened to luxury-watch prices after 2022?
The post-2022 correction is clear in both WatchCharts and Chrono24 data, although their indexes use different methods and report different results.
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| Publisher and measure | Reported result | What it covers |
|---|---|---|
| WatchCharts Overall Market Index, December 24, 2024 update | Down 5.1% in 2024 | Secondary-market index; separate brand results are shown below. |
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse Watch Index, released February 5, 2025 | Up 0.35% in 2024; secondary-market prices fell 25% between April 2022 and October 2024 | Chrono24 says ChronoPulse is based on transaction data. |
| WatchCharts Overall Market Index, October 5, 2026 snapshot | 38,549 USD; up 8.1% over one year and down 6.3% over five years | A basket of 300 watches from the top 10 luxury brands, weighted by transaction value. |
The 2024 readings should not be averaged: WatchCharts and Chrono24 cover different baskets and use different methods. A one-year rise can also sit alongside a five-year decline, as the October 2026 WatchCharts snapshot illustrates. These indexes describe groups of watches, not the likely sale price of yours. WatchCharts’ index page and Chrono24’s 2024 market report explain their respective measures.
Do all brands and models fall together?
No. Even broad brand-level figures differed across the 2024 reports, and brand averages conceal variation between individual references.
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| Publisher and period | Brand or index | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WatchCharts, 2024 | Overall Market Index | -5.1% |
| WatchCharts, 2024 | Rolex | -4.9% |
| WatchCharts, 2024 | Patek Philippe | -6.5% |
| WatchCharts, 2024 | Audemars Piguet | -7.4% |
| ChronoPulse, 2024 | Breitling | +8% |
| ChronoPulse, 2024 | TAG Heuer | +4.52% |
| ChronoPulse, 2024 | Cartier | +1.01% |
| ChronoPulse, 2024 | Patek Philippe | -0.09% |
| ChronoPulse, 2024 | Audemars Piguet | -1.29% |
| ChronoPulse, 2024 | IWC | -3.89% |
These are each publisher’s secondary-market figures for 2024, not appraisals or forecasts. In July 2025, WatchCharts reported Rolex and Patek Philippe above retail on average, while Audemars Piguet had moved below retail and Vacheron Constantin’s average was markedly below retail. Those dated averages do not describe every reference or every buyer’s return. WatchCharts’ mid-year 2025 analysis also reported that 29 of 35 tracked Swiss brands declined in the second quarter of 2025.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Can a recession cause a watch to lose value?
The cited market reports show price movements and downturns, but they do not isolate the causal effect of recessions from other changes in supply and demand. It would be too strong to say a recession alone caused the post-2022 correction—or that a future recession will produce the same result.
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Economic conditions can be part of the context, but an index movement is not enough to explain why a particular reference changed price. Nor does a recent recovery establish a lasting reversal: in February 2025, Chrono24 quoted its Head of Content, Balazs Ferenczi, saying, “In the second half of 2024, we saw at least a slight price increase in the secondary luxury watch market. However, it is still too early to speak of a trend reversal.”
What should an owner consider before selling?
A market index can help describe broad trends, but it cannot tell you what your watch will fetch. For an individual sale, the relevant comparison is between your actual purchase cost and a realistic net sale amount—not a brand average or a listing price.
- Identify the exact reference; brand-wide averages can hide significant model-level differences.
- Assess condition, originality, documentation, and service history, all of which can affect an individual watch’s appeal and price.
- Compare asking prices with completed transactions where available, and account for fees and any service work when estimating what you would keep.
- Use index figures as market context, not as a personal appraisal or a promise of future performance.
In 2023, Bloomberg attributed an 8% secondary-market decline in 2022 to WatchCharts. That is a historical figure for that year, not a current rate or a prediction. Bloomberg’s report provides that dated context.
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