U.S. agricultural exports and imports have both grown over the past decade when measured in dollars. The trade figures do not show, however, that trade agreements produced that growth. Agreements can cut tariffs and open partner markets, but the same totals also move with commodity prices, the U.S. dollar, consumer demand, and tariff changes that sit outside any agreement. This guide separates what the 2025 data shows from what it can prove, and explains how to test the effect of a single agreement.
The 2025 figures at a glance
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) reported the following agricultural trade values for 2025 in its 2026 release. All figures are dollar values.
| # | Preview | Product | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Introduction to Agricultural Economics | $108.98 | Buy on Amazon |
| 2 |
|
Principles of Agricultural Economics | $82.00 | Buy on Amazon |
| 3 |
|
Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness | $202.43 | Buy on Amazon |
| 4 |
|
Principles of Agricultural Economics | $23.91 | Buy on Amazon |
| 5 |
|
Principles of Agricultural Economics (Routledge Textbooks in Environmental and Agricultural... | $56.48 | Buy on Amazon |
| Measure | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. agricultural exports | $171 billion | 2025 |
| U.S. agricultural imports | $212 billion | 2025 |
| Gap between imports and exports | $41 billion more in imports than exports | 2025 |
| Export value growth | 2.3% compound annual rate | 2015–2025 |
| Import value growth | 5.8% compound annual rate | 2015–2025 |
A compound annual rate is the constant yearly rate that would produce the same total change over the period. Imports dipped slightly in 2025 from a 2024 record of $213 billion. ERS attributes part of that dip to tariffs introduced in 2025, and it names exchange rates, year-round supply, and consumer demand as broader drivers of import levels.
Measure growth in dollars and matching periods
Dollar values are not physical volumes
The ERS figures track what trade is worth, not how much physically moved. A rise in prices can lift export value even when shipments are flat, and a fall in prices can pull value down with no change in volume. ERS attributes the decline in export values from the 2022 peak through 2025 to falling global commodity prices, a strong dollar, and changing demand for some commodities.
Quick wins for a faster PC:
Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →#1 Best Overall
Calendar years and fiscal years
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) database reports monthly, calendar-year, and fiscal-year series. Calendar years run January through December; fiscal years run October through September. A comparison that mixes the two can show growth that is really a shift in which months fall inside the period. FATUS groups thousands of 10-digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule codes into agricultural categories, using U.S. trade records collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection and the Census Bureau. ERS describes the database this way in its FATUS documentation:
FATUS is a standard USDA aggregation of several thousand Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes into hierarchical agricultural groups most used by the public.
How a trade agreement is supposed to change trade
The basic mechanism is market access. A trade agreement can lower or eliminate tariffs on farm and food products and set rules that make it easier to ship into a partner market. Lower barriers can support more exports from the United States and more imports from the partner, which is why both directions can rise together. The effect is rarely immediate. Tariff reductions often phase in over several years, so the timing of any before-and-after comparison depends on the schedule written into each agreement.
Rank #2
The analytical question, then, is not whether trade was higher after an agreement took effect. It is whether trade changed relative to what would likely have happened without it. A higher number after implementation could reflect the agreement, a global price spike, or a strong export market in the same years.
Free tools Windows power users keep installed
One-click scans. No signup required.
How ERS tests individual agreements
ERS’s report Do Free Trade Agreements Impact Agricultural Trade? compares trade using five-year annual averages after implementation. Its summary notes that tariff reductions may phase in over a long period and that other policies or market developments can affect the same indicators. Treat the report as a framework for examining individual agreements. It does not establish that every agreement raises exports or imports by a fixed amount.
Why the headline cannot prove cause
Several forces move the same export and import totals that an agreement would move:
Rank #3
- World population and income, which shape demand for food.
- Global supply and commodity prices, which can raise or lower values without any change in volume.
- Exchange rates, especially the strength of the U.S. dollar against trading partners’ currencies.
- U.S. economic conditions and consumer demand.
- Government support for producers.
- Tariff changes that are not trade agreements, such as the tariffs introduced in 2025.
Because these forces overlap, a rise after an agreement can have several explanations. The aggregate figures do not isolate how much of any change belongs to a particular agreement.
Where U.S. agricultural exports go
Five partners received 56 percent of U.S. agricultural exports in 2025: Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea. China, which had been among the largest buyers, fell to sixth.
| Market | Change in U.S. agricultural exports, 2025 | 2025 export value |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico | Up 1% | Not stated |
| Canada | Down 4% | $28.2 billion |
| European Union | Not stated | Not stated |
| Japan | Not stated | Not stated |
| South Korea | Not stated | Not stated |
| China | Down 66% | $8.4 billion |
“Not stated” means the 2026 ERS summary does not publish that figure for the market in question.
The China figure is the sharpest change in the 2025 data. ERS associates the decline with reciprocal tariffs and weaker U.S. soybean demand. These cases show how policy, commodity demand, and prices can coincide within the same year. They are not estimates of any agreement’s effect.
What the United States sells abroad
Leading export categories include grains and feeds, soybeans, livestock products, tree nuts, fruits, vegetables, and consumer-oriented foods. High-value products made up $121 billion, or 71 percent, of agricultural export value in 2025. Processed goods were about 60 percent of that high-value total.
What the United States buys abroad
Imports have a different mix. Leading categories include processed food and beverages and tropical products. In 2025, high-value products accounted for 98 percent of agricultural import value, and processed goods totaled $136 billion, or 64 percent of all imports.
Tropical products and global prices
Cocoa and coffee imports rose in 2025 with global prices, according to ERS. Products that are not readily or economically produced in the United States depend on imports whether or not a trade agreement is in force.
Beef and tight domestic supply
Beef imports rose 24 percent in 2025, and ERS says the increase helped ease tight domestic supplies. Import flows also follow seasonal patterns. A rise in beef imports does not, by itself, show that an agreement changed beef prices or consumption.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to test an agreement’s effect yourself
Use these steps when comparing a specific agreement, partner, or commodity:
- Choose one measure. In FATUS, pick dollar value or physical volume, and label which one every table uses.
- Choose one period convention: monthly, calendar year (January through December), or fiscal year (October through September). Do not mix conventions within a comparison.
- Define the partner and commodity scope, using the same agricultural groupings on both sides of the comparison.
- Set a pre-implementation baseline and a post-implementation window, and note any tariff phase-in dates. ERS’s five-year averages are one workable template.
- Account for outside conditions: exchange rates, world prices, demand shifts, and other tariff changes. If a comparison group is available, check whether it moved the same way.
Two cautions apply to any comparison:
- Do not rank agreements by total trade with each partner. A larger partner total may reflect market size, geography, or commodity demand rather than a stronger agreement effect.
- Do not state a percentage or dollar effect for an agreement from aggregate trade data alone.
Where to find current numbers
FATUS provides trade value and volume by country and commodity in monthly, calendar-year, and fiscal-year series. The Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) offers historical and current data by month, year, country, commodity, and Harmonized Tariff Schedule code. The FATUS monthly update page listed September 8, 2026 as its latest data update and October 9, 2026 as the next scheduled update. Check that page before quoting any figure from this article, since the next release falls the day after this article’s date.
Outdated Drivers Are Slowing You Down
One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchPC Slower Than It Used to Be?
A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11What this means for household budgets
Trade totals do not measure what you pay at the grocery store. Trade values record shipments at the border, not retail prices, so these figures cannot show how much a food bill changed because of trade policy.
For household planning, the more useful question is which price drivers apply to the items you buy. The import examples above are mostly global-price and supply stories, while the export examples turn on tariffs and soybean demand. A household whose income depends on one export crop or one partner market carries exposure that a national total does not reveal, and the 2025 decline in Chinese purchases shows how quickly that exposure can change.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
