Not on the evidence behind the “16-year low” claim. The verified full-year figures show the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit edged down just 0.2% in 2025, while the goods deficit widened. The latest monthly release, for August 2026, showed the combined deficit rising from July. Those changes describe what happened; they do not establish that tariffs caused a lasting reduction.
What the 2025 trade figures actually show
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 2025 goods-and-services trade deficit of $901.5 billion, down $2.1 billion, or 0.2%, from $903.5 billion in 2024. Exports increased $199.8 billion (6.2%) and imports increased $197.8 billion (4.8%). BEA’s annual release reports the full-year totals.
The combined figure masks a divergence between goods and services:
| Measure | 2025 result | Change from 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Goods-and-services balance | $901.5 billion deficit | Down $2.1 billion, or 0.2% |
| Goods balance | $1,240.9 billion deficit | Deficit up $25.5 billion, or 2.1% |
| Services balance | $339.5 billion surplus | Surplus up $27.6 billion, or 8.9% |
The larger services surplus more than offset the wider goods deficit, leaving the combined deficit slightly smaller. A headline about the total can therefore give a different impression from one focused on goods alone.
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What the latest monthly data says
The August 2026 release from the U.S. Census Bureau and BEA put the seasonally adjusted goods-and-services deficit at $105.6 billion, up $12.7 billion from revised July. The goods deficit increased $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion, while the services surplus grew by less than $0.1 billion to $31.0 billion. The August release contains the monthly figures.
The same release gives a different picture for a different window: through August 2026, the cumulative deficit was down $138.2 billion, or 19.9%, compared with the same period in 2025. Exports were up 11.8% and imports up 4.4%. That year-to-date comparison is not the 2025 calendar-year result, and it does not change the fact that the deficit rose from July to August.
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Why “16-year low” is not established here
A low needs a defined measure and comparison: goods or goods and services, a monthly or annual observation, and a specified historical baseline. The Census Bureau’s seasonally adjusted historical data page provides monthly and annual goods-and-services data back to 1992, and annual goods data back to 1960. But the cited data do not identify the particular series, period, or observation that would substantiate the “16-year low” wording. Without that comparison, the phrase should not be treated as a verified description of the figures above.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the numbers do not prove tariffs caused a decline
Trade statistics can show a change in the balance; a before-and-after comparison alone cannot isolate the effect of tariffs. The AP reported that the cumulative deficit for January through November 2025 was nearly $840 billion, 4% above the same period in 2024, and described importers bringing purchases forward before tariffs in the first three months of 2025. That timing can affect monthly and year-to-date comparisons. AP’s fact-check discusses the claim and those figures.
The trade balance can also move with changes in prices, exchange rates, commodity mix, and broader economic conditions. The cited releases do not provide a causal estimate separating tariff effects from these factors or from import front-loading. A falling deficit in one window, by itself, is not evidence that tariffs produced a durable improvement.
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How to read a trade-deficit headline
- Check the measure: A goods-only deficit is not the same as the goods-and-services balance.
- Check the period and baseline: A single month, a year-to-date total, and a full calendar year answer different questions. Month-to-month, year-over-year, and annual comparisons are not interchangeable.
- Check whether values are adjusted for prices: The August release says, “Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes.” It also reports real goods figures in 2017 dollars; the widely cited headline figures are nominal. The release’s notes and tables distinguish these measures.
- Check what is driving the total: Exports, imports, the goods deficit, and the services surplus can move in different directions, as they did in 2025.
- Separate description from explanation: A reported balance is an outcome, not a standalone measure of economic welfare or proof that a particular policy caused the change.
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