Goldman Sachs Research did not make one fixed prediction that the US economy would enter recession under Donald Trump. Its outlook shifted: in November 2024 it expected solid growth in 2025; tariff changes led to a sharp downgrade and higher recession odds in March and April 2025; by January 2026 it forecast above-consensus growth and a lower recession probability. Each figure is a dated forecast, not a statement of what ultimately happened.
What Goldman Sachs forecast—and when
The forecasts changed as the policy assumptions changed. The growth figures below cover different periods, so they should not be read as a single like-for-like series.
| Publication date | US growth forecast | Recession probability | What the estimate reflected |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 20, 2024 | 2.5% for full-year 2025, versus a 1.9% Bloomberg economist consensus estimate | 15% over the next 12 months | Goldman expected tariffs and reduced immigration to weigh earlier, with tax cuts providing a later offset. Goldman Sachs Research, November 20, 2024 |
| March 13, 2025 | 1.7% in 2025 Q4, year over year, down from 2.2% | Not stated in the cited March article | The forecast assumed a 10-percentage-point rise in the average US tariff rate during 2025; Goldman estimated tariffs would subtract 0.8 percentage point from GDP growth over the next year. Goldman Sachs Research, March 13, 2025 |
| Early April 2025 | Not stated in the cited AP report | 45%, up from 35% the prior week | The estimate still assumed many duties would be negotiated away or reduced. Goldman economists said they would change their forecast to a recession if that did not happen. The Associated Press, early April 2025 |
| January 15, 2026 | 2.5% in 2026 Q4, year over year, versus a 2.1% consensus estimate | 20% over the next 12 months, down from 30% | Goldman said tariff drag would give way to a boost from business and personal tax cuts. These were projections published in January 2026, not realized results. Goldman Sachs Research, January 15, 2026 |
The November 2024 figure is a full-year growth forecast, while the March 2025 figure is a Q4 year-over-year rate; the January 2026 figure is also a Q4 year-over-year rate, but for a different year. Recession probabilities refer to the chance of recession over the 12 months after each forecast date, not to the same fixed calendar period.
Why the 2025 outlook worsened
Goldman’s March downgrade centered on the effect of tariffs and uncertainty, rather than on a claim that a recession had already begun. Its analysis described a chain of possible effects: tariffs could raise prices paid by consumers and businesses, tighten financial conditions, and make companies delay investment while policy remained uncertain. Weaker investment and spending could, in turn, weigh on hiring and growth.
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Goldman Research Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote on March 13, 2025: “Our trade policy assumptions have become considerably more adverse and the administration is managing expectations towards tariff-induced near-term economic weakness.” The forecast also depended on policy choices and expected carveouts. Goldman noted that tariff revenue could theoretically offset some of the economic drag if returned through tax cuts, but said revenue from executive action would not be scored in the budget negotiations then under way. Goldman Sachs Research’s March analysis explains those assumptions.
In early April, the 45% estimate remained conditional: it incorporated the possibility that many tariff duties would be negotiated down or removed. It was not a declaration that recession was inevitable. Goldman’s April 23 discussion, “Will tariffs lead to a recession?”, examined the administration’s changing trade policy with Jan Hatzius, Paul Krugman, and Oren Cass. Goldman Sachs Research, April 23, 2025
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What a recession probability does—and does not—mean
A probability is a forecast of risk under a set of assumptions. A 45% chance does not mean the economy contracted, nor does it mean a recession was officially declared. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee evaluates a broad set of indicators and dates recessions retrospectively. The Associated Press quoted the committee’s definition as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” The Associated Press report provides the context for Goldman’s early-April estimate and the NBER definition.
How the outlook changed by January 2026
Goldman’s January 15, 2026 forecast was more upbeat than its spring 2025 outlook: it projected 2.5% growth in 2026 Q4, year over year, compared with a 2.1% consensus estimate, and put the next-12-month recession probability at 20%, down from 30%. The stated reason was that the drag from tariffs would be replaced by support from business and personal tax cuts. These numbers describe Goldman’s outlook when published, not subsequent economic performance. Goldman Sachs Research’s January 2026 outlook
What this means for readers
The most accurate answer to “Did Goldman Sachs predict a recession under Trump?” is: not as a certainty. Goldman began with a growth forecast, raised recession risk as tariff assumptions worsened, and later reduced its risk estimate as its outlook changed. For personal financial decisions, treat an analyst’s probability as one scenario input, not a prediction of your job prospects, investment returns, or household costs. The useful questions are what policy assumptions underlie the forecast, what time period it covers, and whether later information has changed those assumptions.
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