Niko Partners’ May 2021 forecast said China’s video game market would reach $55 billion and 781 million gamers by 2025. Those were projections, not final results. In a September 2026 retrospective, the firm reported $51.8 billion in 2025 market revenue. The sources available here do not provide a comparable final 2025 gamer count, so that part of the forecast cannot be directly scored.
What Niko Partners forecast in 2021
On May 27, 2021, Niko Partners announced reports on China’s mobile and PC game markets, built around its proprietary market model and a five-year forecast through 2025. The headline projected a $55 billion video games market and 781 million gamers by 2025. The announcement described research drawing on online gamer surveys, trend analysis, publisher interviews, regulation and policy review, and analysis of distribution, hardware, payments, and internet cafés. Niko Partners’ May 2021 announcement
The same release supplied 2020 platform figures and projections. They add context, but do not independently reconcile the $55 billion market headline or establish a unique total gamer count.
| Measure | 2020 figure reported in 2021 | 2025 projection published in 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| China domestic PC game revenue | $13.9 billion; down 4.9% year over year | Not stated in the announcement |
| China domestic mobile game revenue | $29.2 billion; up 30.9% year over year | Not stated in the announcement |
| Mainland China PC gamers | 325.4 million at the end of 2020 | 335.3 million |
| Mainland China mobile gamers | 681.7 million at the end of 2020 | 748 million |
The platform gamer counts overlap: Niko said most PC gamers also play on mobile. Adding the projected PC and mobile figures would therefore double-count some people, not produce a reliable total.
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What later Niko estimates say about 2025 revenue
The $55 billion headline should be read as a 2021 forecast, not as a figure confirmed after 2025. A later Niko Partners model release forecast $50.7 billion in 2025, after reporting $49.2 billion in player spending for 2024. In September 2026, Niko reported that China’s games market generated $51.8 billion in 2025, up 5.4% year over year. Niko Partners’ 2025 model release and Niko Partners’ September 2026 retrospective
| Publication vintage | 2025 revenue figure | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| May 2021 | $55 billion | Forecast through 2025 announced by Niko Partners |
| 2025 model release | $50.7 billion | Forecast for 2025 in a later Niko Partners model release |
| September 2026 | $51.8 billion | Later reported estimate for 2025 market revenue; Niko said it was up 5.4% year over year |
The later $51.8 billion estimate is below the $55 billion 2021 forecast, but above the $50.7 billion forecast published in the later model release. These are figures from different forecast vintages; the available sources do not document every model revision or establish a full like-for-like reconciliation. They should not be presented as though one were a direct correction of the other. Niko’s September 2026 article also forecast $53.9 billion for 2026 and $59.8 billion for 2030; those are subsequent forecasts, not 2025 results.
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Was the 781 million gamer projection met?
The 781 million figure was a 2021 projection. The sources cited here report 722 million gamers for 2024 and project 753.7 million by 2029 in Niko’s later model release; the September 2026 retrospective projects 769 million players by 2030. Neither later projection is a final 2025 count. Because these sources do not give a comparable final 2025 gamer total, whether the original 781 million projection was met remains unverified here. Niko Partners’ later model release and Niko Partners’ September 2026 retrospective
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret the forecast as a reader
For a personal-finance reader, the headline is best treated as a dated industry forecast rather than a current market statistic or a measure of the financial health of any one game company. The later reported revenue figure offers a different vintage for the market, but the sources do not define every measure and gamer-count methodology in enough detail to make all figures directly interchangeable. In its 2021 announcement, Niko Partners founder and president Lisa Hanson said: “While China has mostly returned to normal, the pandemic and resulting lockdowns led to major changes in gamer behavior, engagement, and spend throughout the year.” That comment referred to 2020, the period the original announcement was discussing. Niko Partners’ May 2021 announcement
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