Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas fell by a median of approximately 42% year over year in a University of Toronto School of Cities analysis—but that is not a May-only figure. It compares April 1, 2025–March 31, 2026 with the prior 12 months and is based on cellphone activity across metro areas, not a national count of tourists or border crossings. The researchers’ May 2026 analysis and Statistics Canada’s separate 2025 travel measures describe different things, so their percentages should not be treated as directly comparable.
What does the nearly 40% figure measure?
The University of Toronto School of Cities researchers Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung, and Jeff Allen report an approximately 42% median year-over-year decline in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas. The periods compared are April 1, 2024–March 31, 2025 and April 1, 2025–March 31, 2026—not May against the previous May. The May 2026 publication date appears to have been confused with the period measured.
“Median” matters: the figure summarizes changes across metropolitan areas. It is not a national total showing that the number of all Canadian tourists or all trips to the United States fell by 42%. The researchers analyzed the 266 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas by population. Their project page describes the estimate as a median decline across metros.
How did the cellphone analysis count visits?
The study used Cuebiq cellphone activity data for devices classified as Canadian. A device was classified as having a Canadian home location based on stops observed during the preceding 84 days. A qualifying trip occurrence required a stop in Canada followed by a stop in the United States.
What’s actually slowing this PC down?
Pick the symptom - the matching free tool is one click away.
#1 Best Overall
The researchers counted the first qualifying stop in a metro on a given day for that metro. A device staying in the same metro across subsequent days did not generate a new daily count there, although a stop in another metro could count as a visit to that metro. Daily metro values were normalized by the total number of unique Canadian devices observed that day.
This is a measure of device-based metro-trip activity, not a census of people, tourist arrivals, or border crossings. The School of Cities notes that the data include freight traffic and may include Canadians who temporarily lived in the United States and later returned to Canada. The researchers also cite burner phones as a possible reason some activity may not be observed. The analysis does not quantify the separate effect of these factors.
Rank #2
- Road Atlas, Adventure Edition
- Road Atlas, Adventure Edition
- National Geographic Maps
How does the estimate compare with Statistics Canada?
Statistics Canada’s 2025 measures also show a substantial decline in travel to the United States, but they use different units and methods. The cellphone study reports a median change across metro areas over two April-to-March periods. The federal measures cover Canadian travel nationally over calendar year 2025, using return-crossing records or survey estimates.
| Measure | Reported change | What it counts |
|---|---|---|
| University of Toronto School of Cities, April 2025–March 2026 versus April 2024–March 2025 | Approximately 42% median decline | Normalized cellphone-based visit activity across 266 large U.S. metros; a median across metros, not a national total. |
| Statistics Canada, 2025 versus 2024 | 25.4% decline | Canadian-resident return border crossings from the United States. |
| Statistics Canada National Travel Survey, 2025 versus 2024 | 23.5% decline, or 7.1 million fewer visits | Survey-estimated visits by Canadian residents to the United States. |
Statistics Canada’s figures are not competing estimates of the same statistic. One counts return crossings, another estimates visits through a travel survey, and the School of Cities analysis tracks cellphone-based activity in individual metro areas. Their populations, geography, time windows, and methods differ. See Statistics Canada’s 2025 travel release and National Travel Survey results.
Recommended Free Tools
Rank #3
Where did the researchers see declines?
The researchers describe reduced activity in several types of destinations: snowbird destinations, border-region cities, major tourist destinations, and large metropolitan economies. They also note apparent reductions in business-related travel to high-tech and financial centres such as San Francisco and Houston, and a large decline in Grand Rapids, which has automotive-industry ties to Ontario.
These are patterns in the cellphone dataset, not proof of why people travelled less, nor a complete measure of every trip to those places. The authors point to broader economic uncertainty, tariffs, temporary return migration, and measurement differences as possible context. Their analysis does not establish that any one factor caused the decline.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Did Canadians stop travelling, or choose other destinations?
Statistics Canada’s National Travel Survey indicates that some travel shifted to other destinations in 2025 compared with 2024. Domestic visits rose 1.5% (+5.0 million), while visits to overseas destinations rose 10.2% (+1.3 million). Together, those increases almost entirely offset the decline in U.S. visits in the survey’s accounting.
The change varied by purpose. U.S.-bound leisure travel fell 21.5% (-3.2 million visits), while overseas leisure travel increased 12.2% (+1.1 million). Visits to the United States to see friends and relatives fell more modestly, by 9.0% (-536,000). These are National Travel Survey estimates for 2025 versus 2024, not figures from the metro cellphone analysis. Statistics Canada’s survey release provides the travel-purpose breakdown.
Quick Recap
Best Value
- Teach geography using the Rand McNally United States Interstate Fold Map. This folded interstate map is complete with clearly indicated cartography and points of interest.
- Folded map features all Interstate and U.S. highways.
- Clear, easy-to-read cartography.
- Clearly indicated cities, points of interest, airports, boundaries and more.
- Measures 9-1/2" x 4".
What the numbers do—and do not—say
- The “nearly 40%” headline points to an approximately 42% median decline in cellphone-based visits across U.S. metros, measured over April-to-March periods ending March 31, 2026.
- It does not mean that May alone saw a 42% decline, or that national tourist arrivals fell by that amount.
- Statistics Canada independently reports fewer U.S. visits and return crossings in 2025, but its percentages measure different populations and travel units.
- The cellphone analysis documents a decline in observed activity; it does not isolate its causes.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
