There is no established finding that the BJP rigged exit polls or that anyone used advance information to trade. On June 7, 2024, Congress data chief Praveen Chakravarty alleged in a Scroll interview that unusual trading before the polls’ release warranted an investigation. The market moves he pointed to are documented, but the official records described here do not establish that the polls were coordinated, that trading was unfair, or who may have benefited.
What did Praveen Chakravarty allege?
In an interview published by Scroll on June 7, 2024, Chakravarty—then described as chairman of the Congress professionals’ wing and data analytics department—said trading activity on May 31 had doubled. He called the timing unusual because exit polls were released the following day, June 1, and argued that the sequence deserved investigation. The interview is evidence of what he alleged; the sources cited here do not independently verify his calculation of trading activity doubling.
Chakravarty said the exit polls predicted a large victory for Narendra Modi’s BJP-led alliance. He connected those forecasts to a market rise on June 3 and a sharp fall on June 4, when the election result became clear. He described the sequence as potential insider trading and asked who had bought shares before the polls, what information they had, who their beneficiaries were, and whether pollsters, media organisations or political figures were involved.
He also said Congress’s starting assumption was that senior BJP leaders had orchestrated or coordinated the exit polls, and challenged Piyush Goyal’s account of trading by foreign and Indian investors. These are political claims and disputes, not established findings. Chakravarty said the issue concerned the public market rather than only the ownership of particular stocks, and called for a Joint Parliamentary Committee to direct an investigation. The interview does not establish that such a committee ordered one.
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What happened to the stock market around the election?
A July 30, 2024 written answer by the Government of India’s Ministry of Finance to Rajya Sabha Unstarred Question No. 891 reported these benchmark-index movements:
| Period | Sensex | Nifty-50 | What the figures describe |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 16 to June 3, 2024 | +5.3% | +5.6% | Change between the announcement of the general-election schedule and June 3 |
| June 4, 2024 | −5.7% | −5.9% | One-day change on the election-results date |
| June 4 to July 24, 2024 | +11.2% | +11.6% | Change by July 24 relative to June 4 |
These are the Ministry’s reported index figures, not evidence of why prices moved. The Ministry noted that stock-market movements reflect investor perceptions and can also be affected by global conditions and foreign capital flows, domestic economic factors and company performance.
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Did the official record identify unfair trading or beneficiaries?
The Ministry’s answer said the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) had received representations about the market movements, but that “no specific information on any unfair trading has been provided.” It also described SEBI’s role in market surveillance and investigating alleged regulatory violations. That statement records what was provided to the government in response to the parliamentary question; it does not say that no inquiry ever took place or that wrongdoing was disproved.
The answer’s annexure reproduced SEBI data on the 100 largest sellers by client category in the cash segments on June 3. Their gross sales totalled ₹87,915.39 crore on NSE and ₹7,083.75 crore on BSE. The annexure lists categories, not named individual beneficial owners, and the totals do not establish sellers’ motives, profits or any connection to information about exit polls.
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What did the later SEBI and court developments decide?
A SEBI RTI appellate order dated August 6, 2024 concerned a request for inquiry details and findings about alleged market manipulation. SEBI had said the request sought clarification or an opinion and that complaints or market intelligence are examined according to the facts and circumstances. The appellate authority upheld SEBI’s response because the RTI Act did not require it to create or interpret information for the applicant. The order did not disclose an inquiry’s status or findings, so it cannot establish either that no inquiry occurred or that the allegation was substantiated.
LiveLaw reported that the Supreme Court dismissed a public-interest petition on September 6, 2024 seeking probes into media organisations over exit-poll broadcasts and alleged market effects, calling it a “Political Interest Litigation.” That was a decision not to entertain that petition, not a ruling on whether Chakravarty’s allegations were true.
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What can be concluded from the available record?
The distinction is between a documented market movement and a proven explanation for it. The Ministry recorded a sharp fall in the benchmark indices on June 4 and a subsequent recovery through July 24. Chakravarty argued that trading before the exit polls and the timing of the market movements merited scrutiny. The records described here do not identify proven perpetrators, establish coordination between political figures and pollsters, or demonstrate that anyone traded on advance information.
The 2024 result differed from the landslide forecast by many exit polls: Scroll’s interview reported that the BJP won 240 Lok Sabha seats and the BJP-led NDA won 292. Those results help explain why forecasts and the eventual outcome were in focus; they do not prove that the polls were coordinated or rigged.
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