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It can. Studies have found higher employee turnover or weaker intent to stay after some return-to-office (RTO) mandates, with several reporting greater risks for women, senior employees or high performers. But the evidence does not show that every mandate causes a mass departure: surveys measure what workers say they might do, while other studies track employment histories in particular companies or industries.
What does the evidence actually show?
The strongest quantified turnover findings in the sources available here come from a study of large U.S. technology and financial-services firms. A separate Gartner survey measured workers’ stated intent to stay, and UK research measured how workers said they would respond to a full-time return requirement. Those results point to retention risk, but they are not interchangeable measures of resignations.
Observed turnover estimates in large U.S. firms
A study by Ding, Ma, Xing, Yang and Jin examined employment histories for more than three million workers, using profiles sourced through Revelio Labs. The authors focused on 54 large technology and financial firms in the S&P 500 that announced RTO policies between 2020 and 2023. Their analysis also drew on LinkUp job postings and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics industry turnover benchmarks, according to Baylor University’s October 8, 2025 summary. The authors’ paper is listed on SSRN as a working paper posted December 13, 2024 and revised October 31, 2025.
Baylor’s account of the authors’ estimates reports an average 13–14% increase in abnormal turnover after RTO announcements. It also reports that the increase in female turnover was nearly three times the increase for male employees. These are study estimates for the companies and period analyzed, not national workforce rates or a prediction that a given share of employees will resign.
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Surveyed intent to stay and leave
In a survey of 2,080 knowledge workers conducted in May and June 2023, Gartner found lower stated intent to stay under strict RTO mandates: 8% lower among average employees, 16% lower among high performers, 10% lower among millennials and 11% lower among women. Gartner said most respondents facing a strict mandate were expected in the office five days a week, while some were expected to attend two or three days. These are differences in intent, not observed quit rates; see Gartner’s January 30, 2024 release.
Gartner’s separate May 9, 2024 release reports that, in a survey of more than 3,500 employees conducted in November 2023, one in three executives presented with an RTO obligation said they would leave for that reason; 19% of non-executives said the same. In another survey, conducted in January 2024, 36% of senior-level job seekers who had faced a return mandate said it influenced their decision to leave. Each figure describes a different surveyed group and stated response, not a count of completed resignations.
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UK workers’ stated response to a five-day requirement
A King’s College London summary published May 21, 2025 describes research using more than one million Labour Force Survey observations and 50,000 UK Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes responses, covering early 2022 through late 2024. It reports that 42% of UK workers would comply with a five-day RTO mandate, down from 54% in early 2022. In the same summary, 58% said they would quit immediately or look for another job if required to return full-time; that response was reported by 64% of women and 51% of men. These are UK responses about what workers said they would do, not observed resignation rates. The researchers also reported that homeworking remained stable from 2022 to 2024.
What costs may follow a talent loss?
Turnover can matter beyond the number of people who leave. Baylor’s summary of the Ding and colleagues study reports changes in vacancy duration, hiring and the kinds of jobs leavers took after RTO announcements:
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| Reported outcome | Estimate in the study summary |
|---|---|
| Abnormal employee turnover | Average increase of 13–14% after RTO announcements in the 54-firm study. |
| Vacancy duration | Average duration rose from 51 to 63 days, a reported 23% increase. |
| Hire rates | Declined 17%. |
| Leavers accepting lateral or lower-ranked positions | Share rose from 41.6% to 46.4%. |
These are the authors’ reported estimates as reproduced in Baylor’s account, not general benchmarks for all employers. The study’s abstract also reports longer vacancy-filling times, lower hiring rates and an increased share of leavers moving to lower-ranked jobs.
A separate study of Microsoft, SpaceX and Apple, summarized by the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy in May 2024, found that longer-tenured and more senior employees were more likely to leave after mandates and often joined direct large competitors. The summary reports no gender difference in the share of leavers moving to other companies. That finding differs from the gender pattern in the Ding study; it is a reminder that subgroup results depend on the sample and outcome measured.
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Why women, senior staff and high performers may be at greater risk
The studies do not establish one universal explanation or prove that every employee in a subgroup will leave. They do identify groups for whom flexibility appears especially relevant in some samples. Gartner’s survey found lower intent to stay among high performers, women and millennials under strict requirements. King’s reported UK responses also show a higher stated likelihood of quitting or seeking other employment among women than men when asked about full-time return. The Ding and colleagues study reports a larger rise in female turnover in its company sample, while the three-company study summarized by Chicago found no gender difference in where leavers moved.
For senior and long-tenured employees, the Chicago summary reports greater likelihood of leaving in its three-company analysis. Gartner’s executive and senior job-seeker findings point to stated intentions or decisions influenced by mandates, but they do not measure the same outcome as observed turnover. Read together, these results support treating retention as a real policy risk—not assuming that a subgroup finding will apply identically across roles, employers or countries.
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How can an employer weigh an RTO policy?
Rather than treating office attendance as a simple yes-or-no choice, employers can compare policy design and measure what happens after implementation. Gartner recommends motivating attendance rather than relying only on mandates, involving employees in shaping expectations, explaining the business reason for on-site work and organizing attendance around specific work activities or occasional events. It also suggests considering an annual attendance expectation instead of a fixed weekly quota. King’s researchers recommend formalizing hybrid arrangements, investing in remote collaboration tools and coordinating in-office days.
- Specify the frequency. Distinguish a five-day requirement from two or three days, and a weekly quota from an annual expectation.
- Explain the purpose. State what work is expected to benefit from co-location rather than presenting presence as its own objective.
- Coordinate attendance. If collaboration is the reason, plan shared in-office days around the work that requires it.
- Consult employees. Give staff a meaningful role in shaping the policy and understanding how it will affect different roles.
- Track outcomes separately. Measure actual turnover, vacancy duration and hiring alongside survey-based intent to leave; do not report stated intent as completed departures.
What the evidence cannot establish
The cited studies cover different geographies, employers, periods and measures: a selected set of large U.S. technology and finance firms, surveys of knowledge workers and executives, UK worker responses, and three named technology companies. Their results should not be generalized automatically to every industry or country. The sources cited here do not establish a comparable, nationally representative estimate of observed RTO-related quits for 2026. The evidence supports a retention risk to consider when setting workplace rules, not a claim that RTO always causes havoc or that every employee affected will resign.
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