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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11U.S. corn exports surged early in the 2025/26 marketing year, but the latest USDA outlook does not project a continued climb. It forecasts 2026/27 exports at 3.15 billion bushels—still the second-largest total on record—with Mexico the clearest major destination in the available figures. Brazil and Ukraine are expected to expand exports as the U.S. total eases.
What the export surge tells us—and what it doesn’t
In its February 12, 2026 Feed Outlook, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised its forecast for U.S. corn exports in the 2025/26 marketing year to 3.3 billion bushels. That was a forecast, not a completed-season total. Census data cited in the report showed 821.4 million bushels exported from September through November 2025, compared with about 517.2 million in the corresponding first three months of 2024/25. The early-season pace was markedly higher, but three months of shipments cannot establish the final year’s result. USDA ERS, February 2026
Where U.S. corn is going
Mexico is a major buyer
Mexico accounted for 32 percent of U.S. corn exports through March 2026, according to ERS’s May 14, 2026 outlook. ERS linked continued Mexican demand to projected growth in coarse-grains feed use and lower Mexican coarse-grains production in 2026/27. This establishes Mexico’s importance, but it is not a complete ranking of U.S. export destinations. USDA ERS, May 2026
A later USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) announcement illustrates the difference between a sale and a shipment: on October 2, 2026, FAS reported 218,600 metric tons of new corn sales to Mexico for delivery across the 2026/27, 2027/28, and 2028/29 marketing years. Those are reported commitments for future delivery, not proof that the corn had already shipped. USDA FAS, October 2, 2026
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Why this is not a full country ranking
ERS’s Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) page describes monthly trade tables, including a top-ten export-markets table for corn. The page was last updated September 8, 2026, and scheduled another update for October 9, 2026. The figures cited here therefore identify Mexico’s share but do not establish the latest complete destination ranking. USDA ERS FATUS update page
What USDA expects next
ERS’s May 2026 outlook projected U.S. corn exports of 3.15 billion bushels for the 2026/27 marketing year, describing that as the second-largest export total on record. In its international outlook, ERS measured U.S. exports at 80 million metric tons for the 2026/27 trade year, down 3.8 million metric tons from the preceding trade-year forecast. These are separate outlook measures, expressed in different units and year frameworks; they should not be combined into one series. Both point to a pullback from the preceding outlook rather than another acceleration. USDA ERS, May 2026
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Why U.S. exports may ease while rivals grow
ERS’s May international outlook connected the expected U.S. decline to lower U.S. production in metric tons and higher prices weighing on global demand. It projected exports from Brazil and Ukraine to rise by about 1 million metric tons each in 2026/27. Brazil’s abundant supplies and Ukraine’s substantial beginning stocks were cited as support for those increases. The outlook describes competing supply and demand conditions; it does not mean that every additional ton from those countries directly displaces a U.S. sale. USDA ERS, May 2026
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read export figures without mistaking sales for shipments
Export statistics answer different questions depending on how they are collected. ERS explains that FAS weekly export-sales data include outstanding sales—contracts for future delivery—as well as exporter-reported weekly shipments. Census data provide a more accurate account of what the United States has shipped, but arrive with an approximately two-month lag. USDA ERS, February 2026
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- Forecast: USDA’s estimate of exports expected over a marketing or trade year. It can change and is not a realized total.
- Sale or booking: A reported contract, potentially for delivery in a future year. It is not necessarily shipped corn.
- Shipment: Exporter-reported movement, available in weekly FAS data.
- Census export: Recorded exports that give a more complete view of shipments, but with a reporting lag.
For example, the 3.3-billion-bushel 2025/26 figure was ERS’s February forecast; the 821.4-million-bushel figure was a Census-recorded September–November 2025 shipment total. They describe different things and should not be compared as if both were final annual exports.
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