China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans collapsed in late 2025 as tariffs and trade friction made U.S. supplies less competitive, but the available figures do not establish how many contracts China canceled. Procurement resumed after the October 2025 Busan agreement; by 2026, state-owned buyers were again purchasing U.S. soybeans while tariffs and competitive South American supply continued to steer commercial buyers toward other origins. The phrase “new export markets” can mean either new suppliers for China or new destinations for U.S. beans—and the evidence is much clearer on the first.
What happened to U.S. soybean sales to China?
The clearest measure of the disruption is the drop in arrivals, not a verified count of canceled contracts. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reported that China imported 22.9 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, down 8 percent from the prior year. Its 2026 annual report says U.S. arrivals in China then fell to zero from September through December 2025 as high tariffs curtailed trade.
Marketing years are not calendar years, so these figures describe distinct reporting periods rather than a single annual timeline. They also measure imports or arrivals, not the number of purchase agreements terminated. The reviewed USDA reports do not quantify canceled U.S. soybean contracts.
How tariffs and the Busan agreement changed the trade
Tariffs weakened U.S. competitiveness
USDA’s 2025 annual report says China announced an additional 10 percent tariff on U.S. soybean imports effective March 10, 2025. It identified the added cost as a factor that reduced U.S. competitiveness and narrowed the seasonal shipping window. The agency also pointed to Brazil’s persistent price advantage as a reason its share of China’s soybean import market had grown.
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USDA’s 2026 annual report describes high tariffs imposed in April 2025 as curtailing trade after earlier preemptive U.S. buying. In its September 2026 update, FAS reported that a 10 percent retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans continued to steer commercial buyers toward South American origins. Tariffs were not the only factor: delivered price, supply availability, seasonal timing and logistics also affect which origin buyers choose.
The October 2025 agreement was a commitment, not proof of delivery
In a November 5, 2025 release, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative described the Busan agreement as including Chinese commitments for long-term purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural exports. That is the U.S. government’s description of the agreement; a commitment should not be treated as a completed shipment.
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What the purchase figures show—and what they do not
| USDA snapshot | Reported U.S. soybean sales or purchases | How to read the figure |
|---|---|---|
| MY 2024/25; reported in 2026 | China imported 22.9 MMT, down 8 percent year over year | Import volume for the marketing year, not a count of canceled contracts. |
| February 26, 2026 | 10.8 MMT purchased or shipped against a 12 MMT U.S. soybean purchase commitment | USDA grouped purchases and shipments in this snapshot; the commitment is not itself a shipment. |
| February 26, 2026 | 2.19 MMT sold to “Unknown” destinations | USDA said it could not confirm that this volume was bound for China. |
| August 13, 2026; MY 2026/27 new crop | 5.7 MMT purchased for delivery | A dated new-crop purchase snapshot, distinct from the February commitment figure. |
| August 13, 2026; MY 2026/27 new crop | 3.8 MMT sold to “Unknown Destinations” | USDA said unknown sales can indicate state-owned enterprise purchases, but this category does not confirm Chinese demand. |
The snapshots describe different marketing years and reporting dates, so they should not be added together or treated as interchangeable measures. USDA says Chinese state-owned enterprises commonly request that export sales destinations be listed as “Unknown,” but the agency has not confirmed that the specific unknown volumes above were China-bound.
Where China is turning for soybeans
Brazil, the United States and Argentina remain China’s three major soybean suppliers. Brazil is the central alternative to U.S. supply in the current disruption: USDA’s September 2026 update reported record Brazilian shipments from June to August 2026. Uruguay and Canada are secondary suppliers that made consistent market-share gains in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25, but availability and logistics limit how far smaller origins can replace the major suppliers.
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| Origin | What the USDA information establishes | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | A major supplier and a key alternative to U.S. soybeans; record shipments to China were reported from June to August 2026. | USDA cites Brazil’s price advantage and supply availability; no comparable delivered-price figures are provided here. |
| Argentina | One of China’s three major soybean suppliers. | The reported information does not quantify its share or the volume available to replace U.S. sales. |
| Uruguay and Canada | Secondary suppliers that gained market share in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25. | Production availability and logistics constrain a substantial shift to smaller origins. |
| Zambia and Cambodia | China added soybean market-access protocols for both in April 2025, bringing the number of countries with access from 15 to 17. | Market access does not establish large shipments or near-term capacity to replace major suppliers. |
For a buyer comparing origins, formal market access is only a starting point. Tariff treatment, delivered price, exportable volume, harvest and shipment timing, and logistics determine whether an origin is a practical alternative. USDA’s account does not establish that newly approved suppliers have taken over displaced U.S. volume.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Are U.S. exporters finding new destinations?
That is a separate question from where China buys its soybeans. The USDA evidence summarized here documents China’s supplier diversification and the decline and later resumption of U.S. procurement, but it does not identify a named destination that absorbed the displaced U.S. volume. It therefore does not support a claim that a particular country has replaced China as the destination for those exports.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service maintains the Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) data portal, which links to monthly country-and-commodity tables, including a soybean export-market file. The portal page was updated September 8, 2026, but its landing page alone does not establish the latest leading destination or how much China-displaced volume went elsewhere. Those claims require checking the underlying trade tables for the relevant months and commodity.
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What to watch next
- Confirmed purchases and shipments: Keep USDA figures for named China purchases separate from export-sales entries classified as “Unknown.”
- Tariff treatment and delivered cost: A tariff can change relative competitiveness, but buyers also weigh origin prices and logistics.
- Seasonal supply: Harvest and shipping windows influence whether U.S. or South American supplies are available when buyers need them.
- Alternative-origin capacity: New market access for Zambia or Cambodia does not by itself demonstrate export volume sufficient to shift China’s sourcing.
- Destination-level U.S. trade data: A claim that another country is taking China-bound volume needs country-specific export figures, not just a broader export-market data portal.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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