China is forecast to carry unusually large soybean stocks into marketing year (MY) 2026/27, even as its imports are projected to rise. That combination is not evidence that China has stopped buying soybeans: it points to ample supplies and strong competition among origins, with a 10% retaliatory tariff helping steer commercial buyers toward South America. The latest cited U.S. sales snapshot shows some confirmed Chinese buying, but not enough to establish how much China will ultimately purchase.
What does “soybean glut” mean in this case?
Here, “glut” describes a forecast of large Chinese carryover stocks alongside abundant competing supply—not a collapse in Chinese demand. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) staff in China forecast ending stocks of 46.6 million metric tons (MMT) for MY 2026/27. This is a projection, not a measurement of current warehouse inventory. FAS China also forecasts imports of 108 MMT, 2 MMT above its projection for MY 2025/26, with growth tied to demand for animal products produced using soybean-meal feed. The March 19, 2026, annual report says: “Soybean imports for MY 26/27 are forecast to reach 108 million metric tons (MMT), up 2 MMT from Post’s projection for MY 25/26 reflecting moderate growth in demand for animal products produced with soybean meal (SBM) feed.” FAS China identifies these forecasts and revisions as its own; they are not official USDA forecasts.
Stocks, imports, bookings and arrivals describe different things. Ending stocks are forecast supply remaining at the end of a marketing year; imports are a forecast flow over the year. A purchase booking records a sale for future delivery, while an arrival is a shipment that has reached its destination. None of these figures alone establishes how much China has on hand today.
Why are Chinese buyers favoring Brazil over U.S. soybeans?
Price and timing matter in a global commodity market, and the tariff changes the delivered-cost comparison. In its September 4, 2026, update, FAS China says a 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans has led commercial buyers to rely on South American origins. The same update reports record Brazilian soybean volumes sent to China from June through August 2026. Its March annual report also describes structural price advantages for South American supplies and high carry-in stocks at the opening of MY 2026/27.
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This describes buyer preference and recent trade, not a ban on U.S. beans or proof that every Chinese buyer has switched origins. Relative delivered prices, including tariffs, shipment availability and timing, and Chinese crushing and feed demand all affect the choice. Brazilian shipments in June–August are an observed period-specific trade fact; they do not, by themselves, determine purchases during the U.S. export season.
Is China buying U.S. soybeans?
Yes. In the sales snapshot reported by FAS China’s September update, as of August 13, 2026, China had booked 5.7 MMT of U.S. new-crop soybeans for MY 2026/27 delivery. A further 3.8 MMT of U.S. sales were booked to unknown destinations. Those sales may include Chinese state-owned enterprises, but their destination is not confirmed, so they should not be counted as China purchases.
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These are bookings for future delivery, not a tally of beans already shipped or arrived. The snapshot is dated August 13; it does not establish later weekly sales or China’s eventual total. FAS China’s September 4 update is the source for this later China-specific snapshot; its annual report’s February 26 snapshot is older.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does the U.S. outlook show?
USDA Economic Research Service’s market outlook, updated September 18, 2026, raised its MY 2026/27 U.S. soybean production and export forecasts. It left the crush forecast unchanged and projected ending stocks and a season-average price as follows:
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| U.S. MY 2026/27 measure | USDA ERS outlook |
|---|---|
| Production | 4.5 billion bushels forecast |
| Exports | 1.69 billion bushels forecast |
| Crush | 2.78 billion bushels forecast; unchanged in the September 18 outlook |
| Ending stocks | 310 million bushels forecast |
| Season-average soybean price | $12.00 per bushel forecast; not a current cash or futures price |
These U.S. figures are forecasts, not final production or trade results. Stronger projected U.S. exports make competition for Chinese demand consequential, but they do not show what share China will buy. “Peak U.S. export season” is a useful seasonal framing, but the cited outlook does not specify a precise peak date range.
USDA ERS’s Market Outlook provides the September 18 figures. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Global Agricultural Trade System release page notes the October 6, 2026, release of August trade data; that notice does not provide a soybean-specific export-sales total and should not be treated as one.
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What should U.S. farmers and market watchers monitor?
- New weekly bookings: Separate sales explicitly reported for China from sales to unknown destinations.
- Shipment pace and arrivals: Bookings are commitments for delivery; shipments and arrivals show whether trade is moving.
- Tariff policy: A change to the 10% retaliatory tariff could alter the delivered-cost comparison for U.S. beans.
- South American prices and availability: Competitive offers and shipment timing can influence which origin buyers choose.
- Forecast revisions: Changes to China’s import and ending-stock estimates, or to U.S. production and export forecasts, can shift the outlook. These remain estimates until the relevant marketing-year results are observed.
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