China remained Southeast Asia’s largest infrastructure financing partner in 2024, but that lead reflects a large stock of ongoing projects as well as current spending: commitments to new Chinese infrastructure projects appeared to have stalled for a third consecutive year. The distinction matters. China’s role remains substantial, while the pipeline of new projects is no longer expanding at the same pace.
China’s lead is clear in regional infrastructure spending
The Lowy Institute’s 11 October 2026 article reports that the six largest financiers accounted for 90% of Southeast Asia’s infrastructure spending in 2024. China made up about 31% of that spending, ahead of Japan, the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank. Across the longer period since 2015, China accounted for 39% of regional infrastructure spending.
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| Financier | Share of Southeast Asia infrastructure spending | Period |
|---|---|---|
| China | About 31% | 2024 |
| China | 39% | Since 2015 |
| Japan | 21% | 2024 comparison in the Lowy Institute article |
| Asian Development Bank | 17% | 2024 comparison in the Lowy Institute article |
| World Bank | 10% | 2024 comparison in the Lowy Institute article |
These are shares of infrastructure spending, not a ranking of new project signings or a measure of future commitments. The 39% figure covers the period since 2015, while the other figures are presented as a 2024 comparison. The article’s available summary does not give a more precise calculation period for the latter comparison.
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Why a leading share can coexist with a stalled pipeline
Spending on existing projects and commitments to start new ones describe different stages of finance. Projects signed in earlier years can continue to receive funding and keep China’s share high even when few new projects are added. The Lowy Institute says commitments to new Chinese infrastructure projects appeared to have stalled for a third consecutive year; it does not provide annual commitment totals or project counts in the available article summary.
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The authors interpret the slowdown as a more selective financing role: a move away from ambitious megaprojects toward smaller projects that are easier to manage. That is their analysis of the shift, not a demonstrated explanation for every country or project. The source summary also does not define precisely what qualifies as a new commitment, so the three-year description should not be read as a count of all construction activity or disbursements.
Infrastructure remains a major part of China’s development finance
Nearly 90% of China’s 2024 official development finance (ODF) spending in Southeast Asia went to infrastructure, according to the Lowy Institute. The country examples show how that share varied: infrastructure accounted for 64% of China’s ODF in Cambodia, 100% in the Philippines and 55% in Myanmar. These percentages describe the composition of China’s ODF in each country, not each country’s total infrastructure financing.
The article cites $247.5 million in Chinese ODF for Phnom Penh airport and $213 million for the Kaliwa Dam in the Philippines in 2024. Those are project-specific amounts cited by the Lowy Institute; they do not establish the total value, lifetime cost or complete financing package for either project.
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The Lowy Institute puts Southeast Asia’s infrastructure financing gap at around $3.1 trillion when adjusted for climate impacts. It identifies two pressures on efforts to close the gap: reduced aid has constrained the concessional capital used in blended finance, while economic and fiscal shocks have weighed on investor appetite.
Multilateral development banks (MDBs) accounted for 32% of regional ODF infrastructure spending in 2024. The article says their spending and commitments have increased since 2022, giving them potential to take a larger role. That ODF share is a separate measure from the spending shares in the regional financier comparison, so it should not be directly substituted for the Asian Development Bank’s or World Bank’s figures in that table.
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- China remains the largest partner by spending share. The 2024 regional comparison puts it ahead of Japan, the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank.
- That lead does not mean new Chinese projects are growing. Ongoing projects can sustain substantial spending even as new commitments stall.
- The slowdown’s exact scale is not established in the available summary. It gives neither annual commitment values nor project counts or a country-by-country breakdown of the stalled signings.
- The financing challenge is larger than any one partner. The climate-adjusted gap, constrained concessional finance and weaker investor appetite point to a need for multiple funding sources.
These figures and interpretations are from the Lowy Institute’s article, “China remains largest infrastructure partner, but new project signings have stalled,” published 11 October 2026 as part of its 2026 Southeast Asia Aid Map Report. The available summary does not include the report’s full methodology or project-level dataset, so the figures should be used with the periods and definitions stated here.
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