China produced 15.83 million tonnes of pork in January–March 2024, down 0.4% from a year earlier. It was the first year-on-year quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2020, according to National Bureau of Statistics figures reported by Reuters on April 16, 2024. This is a historical report, not a description of the latest trend: official data showed pork output rising in Q1 2026.
What fell in China’s first quarter of 2024?
The National Bureau of Statistics figures reported by Reuters show both lower pork production and fewer hogs slaughtered compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
| Measure | Q1 2024 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Pork output | 15.83 million tonnes | Down 0.4% |
| Hogs slaughtered | 194.6 million | Down 2.2% |
Reuters described the output decline as the first quarterly year-on-year fall since Q2 2020. The figures and comparison were reported on April 16, 2024, and refer to January through March 2024, not to a rolling four-year period. The Pig Site’s Reuters report.
Why did pork output decline?
Fewer hogs went to slaughter, one direct contributor to the lower production total. Reuters reported that farmers were slaughtering fewer pigs as they sought a recovery in hog prices. It also noted sluggish meat sales during the Lunar New Year period, which is normally a peak season. These are reported market conditions and explanations; the figures do not establish a single cause for the decline.
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Supply adjustments followed earlier oversupply
The April 2024 report placed the quarter’s market in the context of earlier accelerated slaughter amid African swine fever concerns and excessive supply. It also described policy efforts to reduce hog numbers. The report said China’s normal breeding-sow retention target for 2024 had been reduced to 39 million, from 41 million. That target was a policy setting, not a count of sows removed or a measure of output.
Slaughter and demand are different parts of the picture
Lower slaughter is a supply-side development; weak meat sales are a demand-side condition. Both help explain the market context described at the time, but neither by itself quantifies how much it contributed to the year-on-year production change. The report also cautioned that high numbers of productive sows and producers’ reluctance to destock could leave supply above demand.
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Does the 2024 decline describe the current trend?
No. China’s State Council Information Office reported pork output of 16.69 million tonnes in Q1 2026, up 4.2% year on year. That is a later, observed quarterly figure and represents growth, not a continuation of the Q1 2024 decline. State Council Information Office Q1 2026 briefing.
Separately, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s 2026 outlook forecast full-year pork production to remain stable year on year. The agency expected slightly higher slaughter to be offset by lighter carcass weights, amid government controls on inventories and slaughter weights. This is a forecast for the full year, not a reported final result. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, China: Livestock and Products Semi-Annual.
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