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Carnival said higher fuel prices would have a $150 million impact on its 2026 outlook, yet it raised its full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance from $2.22 in June to $2.24 in September. Royal Caribbean, meanwhile, reported that swaps covered 58% of its projected 2026 fuel consumption and estimated a $26 million cost sensitivity to a 10% fuel-price change for the rest of 2026. Those figures show different ways the companies describe fuel exposure, but they do not prove that one is definitively more exposed: the measures and periods do not match.
What Carnival and Royal Caribbean reported
| Company disclosure | Reported figure | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Carnival, September 2026 presentation | $150 million | Impact from higher fuel prices on its 2026 outlook |
| Royal Caribbean Group, July 2026 second-quarter release | $26 million | Estimated cost effect of a 10% fuel-price change for the remainder of 2026 |
The figures are not equivalent. Carnival’s $150 million is a management-reported impact on its full-year outlook; Royal Caribbean’s $26 million is a modeled sensitivity for a specified price change and remaining-year period. Neither figure is a direct measurement of how much either company’s costs would rise under the same market move.
Why Carnival’s fuel impact did not stop it raising guidance
Carnival’s September 2026 third-quarter earnings presentation raised full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $2.24, from $2.22 in June, even while identifying a $150 million impact from higher fuel prices. The same guidance table also showed higher normalized net-yield guidance and lower adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel. Fuel was therefore one influence among several; the presentation does not say it was the sole driver of the outlook change. Carnival’s financial-results index lists its results materials; the $150 million and EPS figures are from the third-quarter 2026 presentation.
How much fuel Royal Caribbean had hedged
Royal Caribbean Group’s July 2026 second-quarter release said fuel swaps covered the following shares of projected fuel consumption:
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| Consumption year | Projected fuel consumption hedged via swaps |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 58% |
| 2027 | 53% |
| 2028 | 29% |
| 2029 | 14% |
These are coverage levels disclosed in that release, not guarantees that fuel costs will remain fixed. Royal Caribbean also estimated that a 10% fuel-price change would affect costs by $13 million in the third quarter of 2026 and $26 million for the remainder of the year. The $26 million is a sensitivity estimate—not a forecast that fuel prices will move by 10% or that the company will incur exactly that cost change. Royal Caribbean Group’s second-quarter 2026 release provides the hedge and sensitivity figures.
Why the disclosures do not show which company is more exposed
The reviewed Carnival presentation does not provide a matching 2026 hedge-coverage percentage or a sensitivity to the same fuel-price movement over the same period. Nor do the disclosures provide a matched set of total fuel expense, actual consumption, or a capacity-based denominator for both companies. As a result, the headline $150 million and $26 million amounts cannot support a fair ranking of exposure per ship, passenger, or unit of fuel.
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The documents describe fuel costs and fuel swaps, not a standalone Brent or WTI oil-price measure. Crude oil prices do not translate one-for-one into a cruise operator’s reported fuel expense: the fuel grades purchased, actual consumption, and hedge positions affect the outcome. The available disclosures do not establish that Carnival has no fuel hedges; they simply do not provide a directly comparable hedge figure in the cited presentation.
Annual-report context is a different snapshot
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.’s 2025 Form 10-K reported net fuel cost at 6.4% of total revenue in 2025, compared with 7.0% in 2024 and 8.3% in 2023. It also estimated that a hypothetical 10% increase in weighted-average fuel price would raise forecast 2026 fuel cost by $55 million, net of swaps. That was a year-end 2025 estimate, not the same snapshot as Royal Caribbean Group’s later second-quarter 2026 sensitivity of $26 million for the remainder of the year. The company’s annual filing also covers a different period and measure from Carnival’s September 2026 outlook impact. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.’s 2025 Form 10-K gives the annual figures and estimate.
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What this means for cruise passengers
The company disclosures establish financial exposure to fuel prices, not a current passenger fuel surcharge or a specific increase in cruise fares. They do not show whether a particular fare will change because of fuel costs. A traveler should rely on the fare and terms shown for the specific sailing rather than infer a surcharge or price move from company-wide financial guidance.
Quick Recap
Best Value
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