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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Canadian-resident return border crossings from the United States fell 25.4% in 2025 compared with 2024, according to Statistics Canada. The decline continued into January 2026, when crossings were 22.0% below January 2025. These figures count return crossings—not unique Canadian travellers—and official agencies describe the trend in the context of tensions between the countries without establishing politics as the sole cause of each travel decision.
How large was the decline?
Statistics Canada’s 2025 annual review reports that Canadian-resident return border crossings from the United States dropped 25.4% from 2024. The agency describes an 11-month streak of year-over-year declines, excluding the pandemic, as the deepest and most sustained in its Frontier Counts digital series, which began in 1972. Crossings reached a low point in July 2025 and stabilized late in the year at about one-quarter below 2024 levels.
The latest detailed monthly snapshot in the figures available here is January 2026. Statistics Canada counted 2.1 million Canadian-resident return trips from the United States that month: 22.0% fewer than in January 2025 and 23.2% fewer than in January 2024. January was the 13th consecutive month with a year-over-year decline. The agency’s early-2026 review says crossings remained near late-2025 levels; January data should not be read as a full-year 2026 result.
The January comparisons are unadjusted year-over-year figures. Statistics Canada also reports seasonally adjusted month-over-month changes separately; seasonal adjustment removes seasonal and calendar effects. The January release notes that the agency integrated additional traveller data sources beginning with the January 2026 reference month to address gaps at some ports and improve Frontier Counts accuracy.
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Which kinds of trips fell most?
Automobile crossings dropped more than air returns
In January 2026, Canadian-resident return trips by automobile were down 26.3% year over year, while return trips by air fell 12.8%, according to Statistics Canada’s January travel release. The annual review says automobile crossings contracted sharply from early 2025 and air returns declined throughout the year.
Those are border-crossing counts, not the same measure as airline passenger traffic. Transport Canada’s 2025 annual report says air travel to the United States declined 6.4% in 2025, while domestic air travel rose 4.6% and overseas air travel rose 5.6%. Passenger traffic and border-crossing figures use different measures, so their percentages are not interchangeable.
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Leisure travel declined more than family-related visits
Statistics Canada’s National Travel Survey, a separate data product from Frontier Counts, found U.S. leisure visits fell 21.5% in 2025. Family-related U.S. visits fell 9.0%. Overseas leisure visits, by contrast, rose 12.2%. These figures describe visits, not border crossings.
Where did Canadian travel shift?
The National Travel Survey recorded 7.1 million fewer visits to the United States in 2025, a 23.5% decline. Over the same period, domestic visits increased by 5.0 million, or 1.5%, and overseas visits rose by 1.3 million, or 10.2%. The different percentages reflect the survey’s visit counts; they should not be substituted for Frontier Counts crossing figures.
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Spending moved as well. National Travel Survey data show spending on U.S. visits decreased by $3.3 billion to $18.8 billion in 2025. U.S. leisure-related spending fell by $2.2 billion to $12.1 billion. Domestic travel expenditures rose 8.7% to $81.3 billion, and overseas leisure spending increased by $3.6 billion to $22.8 billion.
These changes matter to household travel budgets because a switch in destination does not necessarily mean a one-for-one transfer of spending: the figures cover different types of trips and expenses. Statistics Canada reports the destination and spending shifts, but the totals alone do not show how individual households changed their budgets.
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Was the change limited to Canadians travelling south?
No, but the January figures show a striking difference in direction and scale. Statistics Canada counted 1.1 million trips by U.S. residents to Canada in January 2026, down 0.3% year over year. Canadian-resident return trips from the United States were down 22.0% over the same comparison period.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What do official sources say is behind the trend?
Statistics Canada says travel patterns shifted “alongside the political tensions between Canada and the United States.” The Bank of Canada, in its February 2026 assessment of the Buy Canadian movement, says travel to the United States declined significantly since trade tensions began, particularly land-based travel.
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These are contextual explanations, not a measurement of why each person cancelled or changed a trip. The cited figures do not isolate the effect of political tensions from exchange rates, prices, travel costs, or other influences. Transport Canada also says 2025 passenger travel was shaped by the evolving relationship with the United States, and notes that rising travel costs—including airfares affected by fuel prices and capacity constraints—can weigh on discretionary travel. It says some Canadians opted for domestic, European, and sun destinations.
Quick Recap
How to read the numbers without mixing them up
- Frontier Counts: Statistics Canada’s measure of border crossings or return trips. One traveller may cross more than once, so a crossing total is not a count of unique people.
- National Travel Survey: The source for the reported visits and travel spending. Its visit counts are distinct from border-crossing counts.
- Transport Canada passenger traffic: The measure behind its air-travel percentage; it is not the same as Statistics Canada’s return-crossing measure.
- Period matters: The 25.4% annual crossing decline compares 2025 with 2024; the January 2026 figures compare January with January. Neither is a complete measure of travel for all of 2026.
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