Scheduled airline capacity from Canada to the United States was nearly 10% lower in Q1 2026 than a year earlier—almost 450,000 fewer seats, according to OAG’s January 7, 2026 analysis. That is a reduction in seats scheduled, not proof that passenger numbers fell by 10% or that anti-American sentiment alone caused the cuts.
What the nearly 10% decline measures
OAG’s comparison covers scheduled Canada-to-U.S. airline capacity in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025. It amounts to nearly 5,000 fewer seats per day. More than 95% of the reduction came from Canadian airlines. The figure does not measure bookings, completed trips, or every Canadian airline operation.
The reported airline changes were not uniform:
| Airline | Change in scheduled U.S.-bound capacity, Q1 2026 year over year |
|---|---|
| Flair Airlines | Down 58% |
| WestJet | Down 19% |
| Air Canada | Down 7% |
These percentages are OAG’s schedule-capacity figures, not passenger declines. OAG is the source of the underlying analysis; PAX’s January 8 summary repeated its headline and airline figures rather than providing a separate underlying dataset.
Which U.S. destinations lost seats
OAG found particularly large reductions at leisure destinations. Las Vegas had approximately 82,000 fewer scheduled seats from Canada in Q1 2026, and Orlando nearly 79,000 fewer. Newark, Atlanta, and Los Angeles were also among the airports with substantial capacity losses. These are seat changes, not counts of Canadians who stopped visiting those cities.
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What airlines said about weaker demand
WestJet later told Global News in February 2026 that it had seen a “notable decline in transborder travel demand throughout 2025.” The carrier said it planned to reduce full-year transborder flying by close to 10%, make a 15% reduction during historically peak U.S. travel periods, and suspend 16 Canada–U.S. routes for summer 2026.
Those figures describe WestJet’s own later annual and seasonal plans. They are not the same measure or period as OAG’s Q1 comparison of scheduled capacity across Canadian airlines. Global News also reported Statistics Canada figures showing Canadian resident return trips from the U.S. fell by an average of 23.6% in November 2025 versus November 2024. That is a one-month change in return trips, not an annual airline-booking statistic.
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Is anti-American sentiment the cause?
Changing Canadian sentiment toward the United States is part of the context OAG gives for the capacity decline, and the report links a shift away from traditional U.S. sun destinations to changing leisure demand. But the cited figures do not isolate anti-American sentiment or establish what share of the cuts it caused. They support a connection between weaker transborder demand, changing destination preferences, and airline schedule reductions—not a single proven cause.
Other possible influences have been raised in reporting, including exchange rates, tariffs, safety concerns, and political tensions. In early 2025, The Associated Press reported that WestJet had seen demand fall by about 25% in the first weeks of that year compared with the same period a year earlier. WestJet said the exchange-rate difference was at least partly linked to the change and that it was reviewing potential tariff impacts. At that time, Air Canada said it was not yet seeing reduced U.S. travel, though it anticipated a possible slowdown. These were dated carrier comments, not measurements explaining OAG’s Q1 2026 result.
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Travel expert Claire Newell told AP that political climate, safety concerns, reluctance to cross the border, and the Canadian dollar may all factor into travelers’ decisions. Those are plausible considerations, not quantified explanations for the seat reductions.
Where airlines added capacity instead
OAG reported that Canadian domestic capacity rose 3% year over year in Q1 2026. Capacity to Costa Rica increased 15%, Mexico 5%, and Japan 13%. OAG said the increases to Costa Rica and Mexico likely reflected a shift in leisure demand from traditional U.S. sun destinations. WestJet also told Global News that demand remained strong for domestic, Latin American, Caribbean, transatlantic, and transpacific travel, and said it redeployed aircraft to routes Canadians wanted to fly.
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Why the change matters to U.S. businesses
Canadian visitors are a significant source of U.S. travel spending. The U.S. Travel Association reported that Canada accounted for 20.4 million visits to the United States and $20.5 billion in spending in 2024, supporting 140,000 U.S. jobs, according to AP. The association also modeled a 10% reduction in Canadian travel as potentially meaning 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion less spending, and 14,000 job losses. Those are scenario estimates, not observed losses or a forecast attributable to the Q1 2026 airline schedules.
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How to read the headline figure
- It is nearly 10% fewer scheduled seats from Canada to the U.S. in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025—not a measured 10% fall in travelers.
- The decline varied by airline, with OAG reporting the largest percentage reduction at Flair, followed by WestJet and Air Canada.
- Leisure destinations including Las Vegas and Orlando recorded large seat reductions.
- Airlines described weaker transborder demand and shifted some capacity to other markets, but the available figures do not assign the cuts to anti-American sentiment alone.
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